To The Moon

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed.

Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound

Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L

Cheng Jun (程俊):

Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem.

Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below.

Gan Canrong (甘灿荣):

Strategy reference: consider selling puts expiring within one week. Underlyings can be the Nasdaq and gold. Strike prices can be set from last Friday's close — for equity indices, choose strikes more than 10% below; for gold, more than 6% below. Second, consider building gold-related positions on dips.

The core logic of the sell-put is the expectation that the market may consolidate in the short term, equity indices in particular; buying gold futures on dips, meanwhile, is a bet on a rebound. If gold breaks above its 20-day moving average, the pace of the rebound could accelerate.

Result: All of last week's trades were profitable, capturing more than 90% of the option premium.

Owen:

If the SOX keeps falling, consider an options straddle on QQQ to profit from the gamma squeeze driven by a rising VIX. This is a buy-side strategy with a fixed maximum loss, so overall risk is well contained.

Specifically: once the SOX breaks the blue support level shown in the chart, simultaneously buy at-the-money QQQ puts and calls expiring in two weeks — same expiry, same strike — to capture the volatility gains from a VIX spike. Profits on one leg have a chance to cover losses on the other. After one week, consider taking profit and closing, or rolling into a new two-week combination.

Result: The trade was not triggered. How to carry this strategy forward this week — see this week's strategy commentary below.

This Week's Market Overview

Market: The Index Fell, but Most Sectors Rose

From July 17 to July 24, 2026, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 0.59%. Of the 11 sectors, 8 rose and 3 fell: Energy (XLE) gained 3.36%, while Utilities (XLU) and Industrials (XLI) rose 2.48% and 1.81% respectively. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell 5.22% and Communication Services (XLC) fell 3.93%, making them the main drags.

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(MESmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(MYMmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$

Compared with the previous week, the internal structure of the U.S. market improved: the S&P 500 ETF's decline narrowed from 1.54% to 0.59%, the number of advancing sectors rose from 5 to 8, and Information Technology swung from -5.48% to a modest +0.17% — the market is no longer being dragged down by technology alone. That said, the leadership structure remains rotational: Energy's gain decelerated from 4.72% to 3.36%, with Utilities and Industrials picking up the baton.

$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ $Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLB)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$

Valuation: The Pressure Is Concentrated in Technology, Real Estate and Industrials

The latest sector valuation table shows that, relative to other sectors, Information Technology, Real Estate and Industrials carry the highest P/E ratios at 34.21x, 32.77x and 32.30x respectively, while Financials at 17.57x and Communication Services at 15.30x sit at the lower end.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

The S&P 500's trailing P/E stands at 28.53x, above its roughly 25.2x ten-year average — the broad index still lacks a valuation cushion.

Rate Constraint: The Absolute Valuation Premium Remains Negative

At a P/E of 28.53x, the S&P 500's earnings yield is about 3.51%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield averaged roughly 4.58% in July — a gap of about -1.07 percentage points. On July 24 the 10-year yield stood at 4.69%, widening the gap to about -1.18 percentage points. A negative reading does not mean equities must fall, but it does mean investors are receiving a static earnings compensation below the risk-free rate. High valuations then depend more heavily on earnings growth and falling rates; if long-end yields stay elevated or earnings disappoint, valuation volatility can be amplified.

Risk Pricing: Volatility and Credit Spreads Have Not Yet Risen in Tandem

The VIX measures the near-term volatility expectations implied by S&P 500 options, while the high-yield option-adjusted spread (HY OAS) reflects the credit risk premium that lower-rated corporates must pay over Treasuries. When the two rise together, it typically signals that risk is spreading from equity sentiment into corporate credit. If only the VIX rises while spreads hold steady, the shock is more likely to be event-driven or confined to volatility within the equity market itself.

Below are the views shared this week by several Tiger Community experts:

Cheng Jun (程俊): Gold Approaches Crucial Inflection Point: All Eyes on This Price Level for a Potential Rally

One very clear characteristic of gold this year is that its commodity attributes have completely overshadowed its safe-haven attributes. As a result, oil and gold have often been negatively correlated on Middle East developments, while equity indices and crypto assets have shown a weak positive correlation with gold. Against that backdrop, gold's first piece of good news this week is now emerging: the United States has suspended its strikes on Iran, and oil prices gapped sharply lower. In fact, gold has already traded with some independence over the past two weeks; once oil shifts into a range, the resistance to gold moving higher will weaken further.

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2608(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2608(1OZmain)$ $Silver - main 2609(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2609(QImain)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$

The second piece of good news — which may already be partly priced in — comes from this week's Fed decision: FedWatch already indicates that holding rates steady is the base case. That means, at least in the near term, there is no hike risk threatening gold's upward correction. Add to that the latest CPI and non-farm payrolls data, both of which suggest that year-end is the real window for a hike, and the macro fundamentals offer some protection. Traders should nonetheless pay due attention to the Fed Chair's remarks and choice of words — many past roller-coaster moves have originated precisely there.

The third potential positive comes from the construction of a smaller-degree bottom in gold. The long-term downtrend-line resistance in place since the start of the year, together with the pressure from the double-bottom neckline, is densely clustered within the 4,170/4,215 zone. If the bulls can secure a breakout, the technical picture opens up at least a move above 4,550, and a retest toward 4,800 cannot be ruled out. As long as the core hourly-chart support at 4,000 holds intact, a prolonged failure to break lower will inevitably trigger short covering.

On balance, gold looks more likely to rebound in the short term, and whether it can achieve an upside breakout in the next one to three weeks will determine the primary direction for the third quarter. The ideal scenario is a double-bottom breakout that completes its theoretical target and then turns lower again — which also aligns with our view across the broader time cycle. That said, if gold is still stuck by mid-August, the downside pressure will need to be reassessed: the longer-term trend remains under pressure, and the expectation of an eventual pullback to 3,500–2,800 to complete a bottom still stands.

Macro Strategy Takeaways

Cheng Jun (程俊)

• U.S. equities (Nasdaq): last week's limit orders went unfilled, but they remain in place — buy-limit orders on the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half the position at each), with a stop-loss below 23,000 and targets at 30,500 and 33,800.

• Gold: constructive on a rebound this week, but without an ideal entry level the stance is to stay patient and observe. If the double bottom breaks out, look for opportunities to sell higher up later on.

Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options

Next week brings the hardest-to-call Fed meeting in some time. The reason is that the recent sharp rebound in oil prices, compounded by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restricted Red Sea navigation and a string of related events, has left the market without confidence in the path of future inflation expectations. Should inflation persist, market expectations for a Fed hike would heat up sharply — it could even materialize as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains deeply committed to rate cuts: if a hike does happen, U.S. equities could face a sizable correction ahead of the midterm elections, which would in turn affect the electoral outlook.

Financial markets are markets of expectations, and among the many financial instruments available, options price expectations most directly. When a future event is expected to have far-reaching impact, traders tend to buy "insurance" to protect their assets, which pushes up option premiums on the relevant underlyings (implied volatility rises). That is why option pricing typically runs high ahead of major meetings or events. A Fed meeting generally lifts option prices on U.S. equity-index-related underlyings; once the meeting is over and the outcome has not deviated far from expectations, implied volatility usually falls back. For precisely this reason, some institutional investors like to sell U.S. equity-index options around such meetings to harvest the decline in implied volatility.

Macro Strategy Takeaways

Gan Canrong (甘灿荣)

Investors can consider selling puts on U.S. equity-index-related underlyings, but the tenor should be kept within one week and the strike should be set well away from current index levels (the Nasdaq's typical weekly range is about 6%, so selling strikes more than 10% out of the money is preferable). That way, even if a genuinely unexpected event occurs, implied volatility will not spike too quickly — which helps with risk control. Specifically:

• Short euro futures as a bet on a black-swan Fed hike, with a stop-loss at 1.15.

• Sell calls and puts on equity-index options. Last week this strategy delivered a 1% gain on the total account; this week it is a rolling trade. Note, however, that option market makers oddly provided no quotes this morning, so we need to wait for stable market-maker quotes before trading. As a rule, keep the option tenor within one week and set strikes ±10% away from last Friday's index close — strikes too close to the current price are easily breached by black-swan events and stopped out.

Owen: Why a Fed Hike This Week Is Not Impossible — Three Strategies for the Big Move Ahead

The Nasdaq has now arrived at a genuinely critical position. Judged by its head-and-shoulders formation, the topping structure can already be treated as broken. Under conventional technical reasoning, the theoretical downside from here would roughly equal the distance from the head to the current level.

But if we shift the lens from the daily to the weekly chart, matters are not so simple — the ground beneath the Nasdaq is not entirely empty. Support still exists around the 20-week moving average, which means this area can easily become a tug-of-war. Before the market genuinely confirms a break of the 20-week moving average and enters an accelerated decline, taking an outright bearish directional bet is not the ideal choice.

For exactly that reason, we should not be watching the Nasdaq alone. The more meaningful barometer is the SOX — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index — because where it sits is almost synchronous with the fate of the entire technology complex.

The SOX has likewise reached the edge, consistent with our earlier warning. Its technical formation closely resembles the Nasdaq's; the difference is simply that the Nasdaq's topping structure already looks fairly dangerous, whereas the SOX's top has not yet been decisively broken — key support still sits near 11,053. Once that level gives way, there is a shortage of clearly defined resistance in between to create a tug-of-war, and price could retest the 8,425 low.

$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $SK hynix(SKHY)$ $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

And the moment everyone is waiting for is the Fed meeting in the early hours of Thursday, Beijing time. The market as it stands has neither broken down decisively nor genuinely repaired itself — and the variable with the real power to break that equilibrium is precisely this meeting.

At present, neither hiking nor holding is an easy option for the Fed. Many observers see only that U.S. government debt has increased by more than a trillion dollars in the space of a year, and that marquee companies across the AI supply chain are issuing debt heavily to top up operating cash flow — from which they conclude that hiking now would merely push up interest costs, widen the deficit and depress equity earnings expectations, with near-devastating consequences.

But the other side is equally thorny. If the Fed keeps holding while the U.S. government and AI companies issue debt on a large scale, falling bond prices will push yields higher and further reinforce inflation expectations that are already sensitive. And should inflation run out of control, it would on one hand be unhelpful ahead of the November elections, and on the other damage the dollar's purchasing power and its credibility — even the bid for Treasuries could come under threat.

So for Warsh, this is not a meeting with an easy standard answer. The Fed needs, at a minimum, to convey to the market an attitude that it "will not allow rates to keep spiraling higher" if it is to ease concerns and steady the Treasury market. For that very reason, we also believe one should not make a dogmatic directional bet before the meeting, but rather wait for the outcome to land before building the strategy.

Macro Strategy Takeaways

Owen

On equity indices:

Scenario one: the meeting comes in more hawkish than expected, the SOX breaks the lowest support of its topping structure, and the Nasdaq loses the 20-week moving average and accelerates lower.

In that case the market is no longer merely range-bound but in a more clearly defined downtrend, which suits strategies that earn from rising volatility — for example, buying a QQQ straddle expiring in two weeks with identical strikes to capture the lift in volatility; or simply shorting Nasdaq futures to capture the short-term downside.

The key futures levels: short the Nasdaq from 28,223, with a stop-loss if price rallies back above, and a downside target at the 200-day moving average of 26,426. Futures volatility, however, can be very large, so it is best to wait for this week's Fed outcome — and only consider shorting if that outcome is hawkish.

Scenario two: the meeting comes in dovish, which is the higher-probability event.

If the SOX stops falling and rebounds at its key level, dragging the Nasdaq and other U.S. indices into repair, then the strategy must shift from a defensive long straddle to a short-premium structure that profits from falling volatility. The underlying remains QQQ: sell calls 10% above the current price and puts 10% below, with a one-week tenor, to harvest the decline in implied volatility.

Another Strategy Opportunity: The Retreating Crack Spread

The current U.S.–Iran situation is clear: neither side actually wants to escalate the conflict further. Iran cannot afford to let the war spread further across its own territory, and the United States cannot afford sustained economic pressure either. Crude oil has always been an asset that is easier to short than to buy; if the U.S.–Iran situation does not change materially, a pullback in crude to as low as $65 would be no surprise. And as WTI crude futures decline, the crack spread has begun to retreat as well.

For those trading futures, one can consider shorting from current levels, with a stop-loss on a break above the blue resistance line at around 85.5, and a target of 75.5.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(MCLmain)$ $Natural Gas - main 2609(NGmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2609(QMmain)$

The current level is not well suited to a futures trade, because the stop-loss sits too far away. So one can consider capturing the crack-spread pullback in the following way instead: short refiner equities, or go long the volatility of refiner share prices — for instance Marathon Petroleum.

$Marathon Petroleum(MPC)$

To short the crack spread, it is worth considering a relatively stable approach: building the position around refiner single stocks directly. Take Marathon Petroleum as an example — it has already formed a topping structure itself, so one can consider a straddle at these elevated levels to profit from the rise in volatility once the share price falls back, or use a bear put spread to profit from the decline itself. Again, that means buying at-the-money calls and puts with the same expiry two weeks out; once the decline accelerates, gains on the put leg will cover the loss on the call leg. We expect Marathon Petroleum's share price may revert toward its 20-day moving average.

One further point is very important: if the U.S.–Iran situation reverses and war resumes or escalates, we must promptly take profit or stop out of the strategies above.