TESLA
For simple math:
Tesla = 270
Rest = 30
Back of the napkin:
If Tesla would achieve twice the growth of the others - let’s say 50%+ annual earnings growth, it would get a fair P/E of 3x = 90.
That means if Tesla achieves this growth and would get to three times its current earnings, it would be fairly valued.
3x is roughly $10B additional earnings.
That is the equivalent of about 200,000 fully deployed Robotaxis .
In a bull case, that can happen by the end of next year. In a base case , 9-12 months later.
And the growth rate would be much higher than 50%, obviously, which means the stock could / should be multiple times higher than now by then.
Ultimately , Teslas valuation comes down to Robotaxi : can they deploy it, and can they rapidly scale to hundreds of thousands once they do.
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