To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

Market Digest: Stocks Rebound, Fed Dissents, Yields Hit 2007 Highs, Earnings Crush

• Inching back up — Strong earnings lifted the three major U.S. indexes to gains of 1% to nearly 2%, largely offsetting the prior week's modest declines. All three remained below record levels set over the past two months.

• Fed dissents — Stocks fell sharply Wednesday as medium- to long-term yields surged post-FOMC. The Fed held rates steady, but three voting members dissented, preferring to lift rates.

• Historically high yields — 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.20% Wednesday (near highest since 2007), reaching 5.25% by Friday. The 10-year rose to 4.71%, highest in 18+ months.

• Earnings surge — S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth forecast jumped to 47.4% (from 38.0%), per FactSet—if realized, the strongest quarterly growth rate in five years. Nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 companies had reported.

• GDP setback — Q2 GDP slowed to a 1.5% annual rate (from Q1's 2.1%), below consensus. Consumer spending posted a gain, but federal government spending and inventories lagged.

• PCE inflation — June PCE inflation moderated to 3.7% annual rate (from 4.1% in May); core PCE was 3.3%.

• Summer doldrums — July marked the second slightly negative month in a row for the S&P 500 (-0.1%). NASDAQ fell 3.2%, while the Dow added 0.3%, its fourth positive month in a row.

• Jobs ahead — July jobs report due Friday will test whether June's slowdown extended; June added just 57,000 jobs (half expected), with April/May revised down by 74,000.

U.S. Market — S&P 500 +1.05%, Cloud Giants Earnings Blow Out, AI Hardware Cracks

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ added 1.05% and closed at 7489.72, but Mag 7 internals saw violent divergence — cloud/retail earnings absolutely demolished expectations while AI hardware and Apple sold off.

Sectors: Systems Software (+17.56%), Broadline Retail (+15.06%), Consumer Electronics (+13.46%), General Merchandise Stores (+12.50%) led.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ +21.75% — Q4 FY2026 EPS $4.74 (beat by $0.50), revenue $90.0B (beat by $2.4B). Microsoft Cloud revenue $54.5B (+29% YoY), commercial RPO surged 99% to $627B. Azure growth steady, AI Copilot penetration climbing.

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ +17% — Q2 earnings demolished expectations: EPS $5.75 (vs. $1.82 est, +216% beat), revenue $200.6B (vs. $197.0B est). AWS cloud +17% YoY, advertising +19%, Prime renewal rates hit record highs.

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ +11.77% — Cloud growth accelerated, AI search ad monetization improved, and YouTube Shorts monetization gained traction.

• $Oracle(ORCL)$ +12.94% — Q4 FY2026 EPS $2.11 (beat by $0.15), revenue $19.18B. Record FY2026 results driven by cloud infrastructure & applications; RPO remains massive at $553B.

• $MasterCard(MA)$ +6.2% — Payment network advanced on resilient cross-border volume growth and share buybacks.

• $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ +3.36% — Buffett's conglomerate gained on defensive positioning and cash pile appeal amid tech volatility.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ -7.24% — WWDC "Siri AI" adopted Google Gemini instead of proprietary tech, market viewed as strategic humiliation; stock crashed from $327.50 ATH to $308.91, the "$5T market cap" narrative evaporated.

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ -6.47% — Profit-taking after prior week's +14.8% surge on AI chip/算力出租 narrative; valuation stretched near $650+ targets.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ -2.94% — Blackwell Ultra at full production, but rotation out of hardware into "validated monetization" cloud names weighed; market cap $4.94T, P/E 30.7x.

• $Micron Technology(MU)$ -10.63% — Followed SK Hynix and AMD lower; HBM memory complex under pressure despite Q1 revenue $23.9B (+200% YoY). Market fretted over 2027 supply release and Chinese competitor CXMT's $8.55B IPO plans.

Singapore Market — $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gains 0.72% as China tech SDRs and financials lead

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ edged up 0.72% and closed at a fresh record high of 5,628.50, extending its winning streak as Chinese tech SDRs and financial names continued to attract institutional inflows. The index has now surged nearly 35% YoY, underpinned by Singapore's safe-haven status and strong cross-border capital flows.

Sectors: Publishing (+100.00%), Application Software (+14.11%), Food & Drug Retailing (+10.76%), Interactive Media & Services (+7.47%), and Technology Hardware (+6.73%) led — though the Publishing move was likely a low-volume anomaly.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $HSBC HK SDR 5to1(HSHD.SI)$ +5.13% — The Hong Kong-listed banking giant's Singapore SDR rallied on its attractive 3.62–3.76% dividend yield and quarterly payout model (next ex-date August 14, 2026). The stock trades at a 15x P/E with a market cap of S$466.97B, benefiting from rotation into global banking names.

• $Alibaba HK SDR 5to1(HBBD.SI)$ +5.23% — The Chinese tech giant's Singapore SDR extended its recent momentum, with the company paying an annual dividend of S$0.033 per share (0.86% yield, ex-date June 10, 2026). The stock has a market cap of S$449.12B and trades at ~19.75x P/E, with Q1 FY2026 revenue of 247.65B CNY (+1.82% YoY) and EPS of 2.25 CNY (+81.45% YoY).

• $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SI)$ +8.07% — The tech conglomerate's Singapore SDR surged on continued share buybacks and strong Southbound inflows. The stock trades at ~14.1x P/E with a 1.2% dividend yield, and has a market cap of S$826.27B. Revenue (TTM) stands at S$132.33B with a 30.6% net profit margin.

• $Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1(HXXD.SI)$ +6.82% — The consumer electronics and EV player's Singapore SDR advanced as its SU7 electric vehicle delivery numbers continued to beat monthly targets. The SDR (2:1 ratio to underlying HK shares) trades with support around S$4.25 and resistance near S$5.10, with the long-term trend firmly bullish as the 100-day MA sits above the 200-day MA.

• $IFAST(AIY.SI)$ +9.09% — The digital wealth platform surged on continued momentum in assets under administration and expanding product offerings across its pan-Asian platform.

• $Great Eastern(G07.SI)$ +6.87% — The insurance and financial services group rallied on its deeply discounted valuation (7.54x P/E, 6.32x forward P/E) and attractive dividend history. Peter Lynch fair value estimates suggest 25.76% upside to S$22.76 from current levels near S$18.10. The company declared a S$0.45 dividend in April 2025 and S$0.25 in August 2025.

• $JMH USD(J36.SI)$ +4.39% — The Hong Kong conglomerate advanced as its property and retail affiliates showed resilience. The stock trades in a 52-week range of S$54.20–S$82.50, with the group's diversified model providing stability amid regional volatility.

• $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$ +6.83% — The global real estate investment manager rallied on its S$125 billion funds under management and diversified portfolio spanning retail, office, lodging, logistics, and data centers. All five covering analysts maintain Buy ratings with a consensus target of S$3.41 (~28% upside from S$2.66).

• $HorizonRobo HK SDR1to1(HHZD.SI)$ +16.44% — The Chinese autonomous driving chip designer's Singapore listing exploded higher, with the stock up 10.56% in the past 24 hours alone. The company has 2,177 employees, a 70.5% gross margin, and is covered by 28 analysts including Bernstein and BofA. The stock trades at S$0.79 with a market cap of S$12.39B.

• $Delta TH SDR 1to1(TDED.SI)$ -7.92% — The Thailand-based power-electronics giant's SDR retreated on profit-taking after a strong run, though its AI data-center power-supply demand narrative remains intact.

Australian Market — ASX 200 surges 2.33% to 8,976.8 as miners and defensives lead broad-based rally

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ jumped 2.33% and closed at 8,976.8, driven by a powerful rebound in iron ore miners and broad strength across consumer staples, healthcare, and industrials. The index broke above the 8,900 resistance level as commodity price stabilization and defensive rotation converged.

Sectors: Soft Drinks (+18.75%), Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines (+16.67%), Home Furnishings (+13.41%), Application Software (+12.49%), and Education Services (+11.51%) led — though several of these moves were likely low-volume anomalies.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ +2.48% — The world's largest miner rebounded as iron ore prices stabilized near US$100/tonne, with the stock recovering from recent lows. The company's diversified portfolio (copper, iron ore, coal) and massive scale continue to attract institutional support despite Chinese demand concerns.

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ +2.01% — Australia's largest bank extended its recent strength, with its dominant market position and resilient dividend yield attracting continued buying. The stock remains a core holding for domestic and international investors seeking Australian financial exposure.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ +6.61% — The iron ore giant led the mining rebound, surging on value buying after its recent decline. The stock's 38% six-month run had left it vulnerable to profit-taking, but this week's bounce suggested investors are willing to buy the dip on Chinese stimulus hopes.

• $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ +2.42% — The diversified conglomerate advanced as its retail portfolio (Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks) showed continued resilience. The stock's defensive consumer staples exposure and ~3.4% dividend yield attracted rotation flows.

• $GOODMAN GROUP(GMG.AU)$ +4.05% — The industrial property developer and logistics specialist rallied on continued demand for warehouse and data-center space. The company's global portfolio and development pipeline remain key growth drivers.

• $CSL LIMITED(CSL.AU)$ +7.74% — The global biotech giant surged on defensive positioning and recovery from earlier 2026 weakness. CSL's plasma-derived therapies, influenza vaccines, and iron deficiency segments offer resilient demand profiles, with the company earning roughly half its revenue in North America.

• $ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LTD(ALL.AU)$ +5.43% — The gaming machine manufacturer advanced on its dominant US market position and resilient land-based gaming revenues. Lightning Link and Dragon Link titles continue to drive repeat installs and cash generation.

• $AMCOR PLC-CDI(AMC.AU)$ +5.48% — The global packaging leader rebounded from recent weakness, with investors buying the dip on its defensive consumer staples exposure. The company's global scale and sustainability initiatives support its long-term thesis.

• $BRAMBLES LTD(BXB.AU)$ +4.7% — The pallet-pooling and logistics group rallied as global trade volume concerns eased and the company's CHEP platform showed resilience. The stock's recent underperformance created a value entry point for institutional buyers.

• $COMPUTERSHARE LTD(CPU.AU)$ +3.67% — The share registry and corporate services provider advanced on its defensive earnings profile and exposure to rising corporate activity. The company's global market-leading position in registry services provides stable recurring revenue.

The Week Ahead: Aug 3- 7

Macro Factors

🔑 2 Macro Themes to Watch

A. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Economic Expansion Check (August 3)

• Why it matters: The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing PMI for July on Monday. As a leading economic indicator, it measures factory activity and broader manufacturing health.

• Latest consensus: Expectations point to a reading around 53.8–54.0 (following June's 53.3 reading), signaling ongoing moderate expansion in the manufacturing base.

• What to watch:

• PMI ≥ 54.0 → Solid industrial expansion → Supports corporate earnings sentiment, yields edge up.

• PMI ≤ 50.0 → Contractionary surprise → Triggers growth slowdown fears, increases rate-cut expectations.

B. July Jobs Report: The Labor Market Benchmark (August 7)

• Why it matters: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures remain critical inputs for the Fed's monetary stance.

• Latest readings: June Nonfarm Payrolls slowed to +57K (with prior months revised down by 74K) while Unemployment held at 4.2%.

• What to watch:

• Payrolls ≥ 110K → Labor market resilience → Dampens near-term rate-cut urgency.

• Payrolls ≤ 75K → Labor market cooling → Reignites economic growth concerns and easing expectations.

Earnings Focus: PLTR AMD SPCX CRCL SNDK

A. High-Growth Tech, AI, and Space Capital Markets

• The Pioneer Reports: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ reports after market close on Monday, August 3, followed by $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and a high-profile debutant, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ reporting on Tuesday, August 4.

• AI & Aerospace Execution: Investors are evaluating Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) conversion rates and enterprise demand, alongside AMD's data center GPU shipping expansion. Meanwhile, SpaceX faces intense market focus for its inaugural public quarterly earnings release ahead of its impending IPO lockup expiry.

B. Financial Fintech and Memory Hardware

• Wednesday, August 5: Memory giant $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ and stablecoin infrastructure network $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ release quarterly results.

• Key Focus: SanDisk's results will reflect pricing leverage and supply dynamics amid the ongoing AI infrastructure hardware buildout, while Circle's metrics will focus on USDC circulation growth and transaction volume expansion.