🤡-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
Comment
Favorite

Mikinyaa
08-05 12:05

🤡

The Big Short prototype Michael Burry bets that the US stock rally will end: We're close to a major top with a possible 1987-like plunge

重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。

The Big Short prototype Michael Burry bets that the US stock rally will end: We're close to a major top with a possible 1987-like plunge

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":593413108916752,"tweetId":"593413108916752","gmtCreate":1785902726307,"gmtModify":1785902728334,"author":{"id":3575534613319772,"idStr":"3575534613319772","authorId":3575534613319772,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.79%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"fanSize":63,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>🤡</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>🤡</p></body></html>","text":"🤡","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593413108916752","repostId":1108282527,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108282527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785890794,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108282527?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-08-05 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Big Short prototype Michael Burry bets that the US stock rally will end: We're close to a major top with a possible 1987-like plunge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108282527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Focus</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"I still think there's a chance we're already close to a major top and potentially a 1987-like decline,\" Bury said in a post on Substack on Tuesday.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&P 500 rose 1.9% on Tuesday to close at its first all-time high since June. Better-than-expected corporate earnings and another drop in oil prices drove the market up.</p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Because of the movie \"The Big Short (<span>The Big Short</span>Michael Bury, who is famous for<span>Michael Burry</span>), sticking to its bearish bets even as the S&P 500 soared to record highs, and warning that the rally could still eventually turn into a sharp sell-off like the 1987 stock market crash.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"I still think there's a chance we're already close to a major top and maybe a 1987-like decline, but the S&P 500 hit a new high and it's likely to attract new money to the market,\" Bury said in a post on Substack on Tuesday.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>S&P 500</strong>It rose 1.9% on Tuesday to close at its first all-time high since June. Corporate earnings were stronger than expected, while oil prices fell again, and markets were<strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong>Hopes that it will reopen to maritime shipping have heated up, and these factors have combined to fuel the rally in stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Technology stocks account for a higher proportion<strong>Nasdaq Composite Index</strong>A surge of 2.7%, bringing its cumulative gain in the first two trading days of the week alone to nearly 5%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury has been one of Wall Street's most vocal skeptics of the AI boom. He believes that the current demand for AI infrastructure is largely driven by some financing arrangements that may ultimately be unsustainable.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He said the rise in the market is forming a<strong>A cycle of self-reinforcement</strong>, as volatility decreases, systemic investors increase market exposure, which further drives the market upward.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"Remember, the market rising with lower volatility will force volatility-targeted funds to leverage more, while also allowing leveraged money from other momentum strategies to kick in,\" he wrote.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the face of the continued market rally, Bury said he still holds the following<strong>Short Positions</strong>：</p><p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Micron Technology (Micron)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Caterpillar</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Tesla (Tesla)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applied Materials (Applied Materials)</strong></p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury said he remains confident in the long-term judgment of these short positions. He added, though, that he would opt for a stop loss if the trades were clearly moving against him.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Currently, these short positions, he said<strong>All but shorting Nvidia remain profitable</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"Again, shorting isn't for everyone. I have to go short, but most people shouldn't,\" Burry wrote.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Big Short prototype Michael Burry bets that the US stock rally will end: We're close to a major top with a possible 1987-like plunge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Big Short prototype Michael Burry bets that the US stock rally will end: We're close to a major top with a possible 1987-like plunge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-05 08:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Focus</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"I still think there's a chance we're already close to a major top and potentially a 1987-like decline,\" Bury said in a post on Substack on Tuesday.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&P 500 rose 1.9% on Tuesday to close at its first all-time high since June. Better-than-expected corporate earnings and another drop in oil prices drove the market up.</p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Because of the movie \"The Big Short (<span>The Big Short</span>Michael Bury, who is famous for<span>Michael Burry</span>), sticking to its bearish bets even as the S&P 500 soared to record highs, and warning that the rally could still eventually turn into a sharp sell-off like the 1987 stock market crash.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"I still think there's a chance we're already close to a major top and maybe a 1987-like decline, but the S&P 500 hit a new high and it's likely to attract new money to the market,\" Bury said in a post on Substack on Tuesday.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>S&P 500</strong>It rose 1.9% on Tuesday to close at its first all-time high since June. Corporate earnings were stronger than expected, while oil prices fell again, and markets were<strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong>Hopes that it will reopen to maritime shipping have heated up, and these factors have combined to fuel the rally in stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Technology stocks account for a higher proportion<strong>Nasdaq Composite Index</strong>A surge of 2.7%, bringing its cumulative gain in the first two trading days of the week alone to nearly 5%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury has been one of Wall Street's most vocal skeptics of the AI boom. He believes that the current demand for AI infrastructure is largely driven by some financing arrangements that may ultimately be unsustainable.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">He said the rise in the market is forming a<strong>A cycle of self-reinforcement</strong>, as volatility decreases, systemic investors increase market exposure, which further drives the market upward.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"Remember, the market rising with lower volatility will force volatility-targeted funds to leverage more, while also allowing leveraged money from other momentum strategies to kick in,\" he wrote.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the face of the continued market rally, Bury said he still holds the following<strong>Short Positions</strong>：</p><p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Micron Technology (Micron)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Caterpillar</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Tesla (Tesla)</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applied Materials (Applied Materials)</strong></p><p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bury said he remains confident in the long-term judgment of these short positions. He added, though, that he would opt for a stop loss if the trades were clearly moving against him.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Currently, these short positions, he said<strong>All but shorting Nvidia remain profitable</strong>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"Again, shorting isn't for everyone. I have to go short, but most people shouldn't,\" Burry wrote.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1b39b22a82612ecf8be42d25d85963","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108282527","content_text":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。因电影《大空头（The Big Short）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对霍尔木兹海峡将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。科技股占比较高的纳斯达克综合指数大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的空头头寸：iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）美光科技（Micron）英伟达（Nvidia）卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）Palantir特斯拉（Tesla）应用材料（Applied Materials）伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。他说，目前这些空头头寸除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态。伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLT":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"AMAT":2,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"MU":2,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"09366":0.6,"09766":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"TSLA":2,"TSLI":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"SOXX":2,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"07366":0.6,"CAT":2,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"07788":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDA":2,"TSLW":0.6,"07766":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"PLTR":2,"PLTG":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}