To The Moon

One-sentence theme: CPI came in as expected, focus shifts to compute — demand-side continues to validate (CRWV/NBIS capacity sold out, Temasek eyeing Korean storage, CME launching compute futures).

Strategic tone: Pullbacks are opportunities for Sell Put positioning, not reasons to chase highs.

I. Macro: CPI in Line, No Surprises

CPI came in at +3.4% YoY, core at +2.5% — both in line with expectations. The probability of a September rate hike remains unchanged at 45%. → No change to the rate-cut trade rhythm; neutral impact on the broader market.

II. Compute Theme: Strong Demand-Side Validation ✅

• CRWV: Backlog orders at $104 billion, EPS -1.14 beat the -1.41 consensus. NBIS stated that all 2027 capacity is already sold out. → Compute demand remains very strong and shows no signs of slowing.

• ⚠️ However, CRWV has massive Sell Call block trades (9/18-expiry 110/115$CRWV 20260918 115.0 CALL$) → upside is capped — don't chase highs.

• Temasek is considering investing in Korean stocks (Samsung, Hynix) and has already contacted the Korean government to discuss timing. → Sovereign fund position-building is a lengthy process; the stock will continue to see volatility ahead — this is a time for Sell Put dip-buying, not leveraged positions (emphasis: don't use leverage).

• CME launching compute futures on 10/5 → expected to become a barometer for the AI/semiconductor sector, worth tracking long-term.

III. Individual Stocks and Capital Flows

• Tencent earnings: Capex hits a record high, AI infrastructure investment pushes free cash flow into negative territory → stock is likely to remain under pressure (consistent with the "capex valuation-kill + financing signal" theme).

• Duan Yongping added to Pop Mart: His H&H International increased its stake in Pop Mart from 5.5% to 7.7% on 8/6 → a clear dip-buying signal; keep an eye on Pop Mart.

IV. Notable Block Trades

• IGV: 12/18-expiry 90 Put$IGV 20261218 90.0 PUT$ , 52,900 contracts, $13.5 million → betting on a significant pullback in the software sector → watch for coordinated pullback risk in MSFT and PLTR.

• PLTR: 12/18-expiry 140 Put opening $PLTR 20261218 140.0 PUT$ → pullback protection / bearish; watch for pullback risk.

• SPCX: 10/16-expiry 180 Call buy$SPCX 20261016 180.0 CALL$ → medium-term bullish, but expected to stall around 150 before Triple Witching (9/18).

• GLD: 9/18-expiry 440 Call sell $GLD 20260918 440.0 CALL$, 12,600 contracts → capping the upside → suggesting a slowdown and consolidation from August through mid-September.

V. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

1. Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact (capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing, but the AI atmosphere tends to heat up first).

2. Gold Sell Put: Increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

3. SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM) — S&P has already risen 3% → structural tailwind. For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts carry assignment obligations and asymmetric downside risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.