To The Moon

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76 after touching a record 7,816.70 during the week. We are basically sitting on the roof of the market.

And right now my feed seems split into two camps.

🐂 Camp one: Buy the breakout. Don’t overthink it. New highs lead to new highs.

🐻 Camp two: Take profit immediately. Stocks are expensive. A correction has to be coming.

I’m doing neither.

I’m already invested, so I’m not running for the exit.

But I’m also not throwing fresh money at record highs just because the chart is green.

The market still has to earn my next dollar.

And for me, that comes down to two dates.

📅 August 19: FOMC Minutes

📅 August 26: NVIDIA Earnings

One tests the price investors are willing to pay for growth.

The other tests whether the growth itself is still strong enough to deserve that price.

That is why the next nine days matter.

🏦 TEST ONE: THE FED

The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% at its July meeting.

But here is the part I think deserves more attention.

The decision was 9 to 3.

And all three dissenters wanted rates HIGHER, not lower.

Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25 basis point hike. The Fed also said inflation remained elevated relative to its 2% goal.

That makes Wednesday’s minutes fascinating.

The market has recently become more comfortable with the idea that rates may stay manageable. Softer inflation data helped the S&P 500 reach fresh records last week.

But what if the discussion inside the Fed room was more hawkish than the headline decision suggested?

That is what I’m looking for.

👀 My Fed checklist:

Is inflation still the dominant concern?

How worried were officials about financial conditions becoming too loose?

Was the 9 to 3 vote hiding a broader debate about further tightening?

Or does the committee increasingly believe current policy is restrictive enough?

If the minutes come across as relatively balanced, I think growth stocks breathe easier.

If they reveal deeper concern about inflation and an appetite for tighter policy, expensive tech suddenly has another problem.

Because great companies can still fall when investors decide they were paying too much for the earnings.

🤖 TEST TWO: NVIDIA

Then comes the heavyweight.

NVIDIA reports Q2 FY27 results on August 26.

The numbers it is following are ridiculous.

🔥 Q1 revenue: $81.6 billion

🔥 Year on year growth: 85%

🔥 Data Center revenue: $75.2 billion

🔥 Free cash flow: $48.6 billion

🔥 Q2 revenue guidance: approximately $91 billion

Those aren’t startup numbers.

That is one of the biggest companies on Earth growing like one.

Which creates a strange problem.

Being amazing is no longer enough.

NVIDIA now has to be amazing relative to expectations that are already enormous.

I don’t think the important question is simply:

“Is AI still growing?”

I think the better question is:

“Is AI growing fast enough to justify what investors are already paying for it?”

Because NVIDIA doesn’t exist in isolation anymore.

It sits right at the centre of the AI capex cycle.

Hyperscalers buy the GPUs.

Data centres need networking, memory, cooling, optics and power.

Cloud providers spend billions building capacity.

And investors have priced a lot of that future into today’s valuations.

So if NVIDIA delivers another monster quarter and strong guidance, it validates a huge part of the AI infrastructure thesis.

If NVIDIA disappoints, even slightly, the market may start questioning expectations far beyond NVIDIA itself.

That is why I see August 26 as more than an earnings report.

It is an AI confidence test.

⚔️ NOW PUT THE TWO TOGETHER

This is where it gets interesting.

🏦 Friendly Fed + Strong NVIDIA

That’s the cleanest bullish outcome.

Rates don’t threaten valuations, earnings keep delivering, and record highs suddenly have fundamental support behind them.

🏦 Friendly Fed + Weak NVIDIA

Rates help, but the growth story cracks.

I’d expect money to rotate rather than disappear entirely.

🤖 Hawkish Fed + Strong NVIDIA

Probably the most chaotic outcome.

Fantastic earnings collide with valuation pressure. Great companies may still perform, but investors become much more selective about what multiples they are willing to pay.

📉 Hawkish Fed + Weak NVIDIA

That’s the combination I don’t want to be aggressively buying into beforehand.

Both pillars get hit at once.

Valuation and growth.

That is where “buy every dip” can become expensive very quickly.

💵 WHAT AM I ACTUALLY DOING?

I’m not selling everything.

I’m not predicting a crash.

And I’m definitely not pretending I know exactly what happens next.

I already have market exposure, so if stocks continue higher I’m participating.

But I’m also keeping cash available rather than chasing fresh positions at record levels before these two catalysts.

That is the part people sometimes misunderstand about holding cash.

Cash isn’t always a bearish bet.

Sometimes cash is optionality.

It lets me wait.

It lets me react.

And it means I don’t have to convince myself that every red candle is automatically a bargain.

I’d rather miss the first 1% of a continuation move than catch a falling knife if both catalysts miss.

There will always be another trade.

There isn’t always another opportunity to protect your capital.

🚦MY CURRENT SIGNAL

🟢 Long term: Still bullish on quality US equities and AI

🟡 Right now: Cautious adding at record highs

💵 Fresh cash: Waiting for evidence

The market has already given us the price.

Now I want the Fed and NVIDIA to give me the proof.

The market still has to earn my next dollar.

🗳️ TIGERS, LOCK IT IN BEFORE AUGUST 26

No essays needed.

Pick your camp 👇

A 🐂 BOTH DELIVER

Fed behaves, NVIDIA smashes expectations, new highs continue.

B 🏦 FED SPOILS THE PARTY

The minutes are more hawkish than expected and valuations take a hit.

C 🤖 NVIDIA DECIDES IT

Forget the Fed. AI earnings determine the next major move.

D 💵 KEEPING CASH READY

Stay invested, but wait for a better setup before adding.

I’m closest to D right now.

What’s yours?

A, B, C or D? 👇🔥

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

#FOMC Minutes Due Thursday - Can S&P 500 All-Time High Hold?

My personal investing view only. Not financial advice.

Sources: Federal Reserve, NVIDIA Investor Relations, Reuters.