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08-19 19:07

Not 2pm?

US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Due at 2 AM: Dollar and Gold Brace for Volatility

Scheduled for release tomorrow at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes correspond to the July 28-29 rate decision. At that time, the central bank opted to hold the...

US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Due at 2 AM: Dollar and Gold Brace for Volatility

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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At that time, the central bank opted to hold the...","content":"<p>Scheduled for release tomorrow at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes correspond to the July 28-29 rate decision. At that time, the central bank opted to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, and the market's rate hike expectations suffered a significant blow, leading to a sharp drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold on that day.<br><br>Following the release of these minutes, there is potential for a fresh wave of speculation regarding the waning of Fed rate hike expectations. Investors should be wary of sharp fluctuations in the dollar and gold, with the potential for a negative impact on the dollar index while benefiting precious metals and non-US currencies.<br><br>Since July 28, the dollar index has shown a short-term depreciation trend, influenced by the coordinated intervention in the yen by US and Japanese authorities. This depreciation is largely artificial rather than market-driven. There remains a possibility of secondary intervention measures by both nations, and some major hedge funds have already begun closing their short yen positions. Retail traders should also exercise caution regarding the yen's exchange rate.<br><br>Tensions between the US and Iran are showing signs of easing. While international oil prices remain near the $80 mark, the momentum for further gains is noticeably weakening. International energy prices are a key determinant of the trajectory of US inflation. Should US inflation data show a significant retreat over the coming month, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike would diminish significantly, potentially paving the way for a resurgence of the dollar index's bearish trend.<br><br>WTI crude is currently stable near $85. Until the US-Iran situation is resolved, this price level appears to reflect a genuine supply-demand balance, making a significant breakout in either direction unlikely unless there is a dramatic shift in the news flow.<br><br>Chart 1, EURUSD and Fed rate curve overlay over the past decade - ATFX<br><br>As the chart illustrates, the EURUSD trajectory generally maintains an inverse relationship with the Fed's rate curve. When the Fed enters a rapid hiking cycle, EURUSD tends to depreciate sharply, as seen in the pattern from 2022 through late 2023. Exceptions exist, such as the period before 2018 when EURUSD appreciated quickly despite ongoing Fed hikes, driven by robust eurozone economic growth and the ECB's tightening monetary policy with a substantial reduction in QE allowances. In the absence of external disruptions, the inverse correlation between EURUSD and Fed rates is likely to persist.<br><br>With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% throughout its meetings this year, EURUSD has been confined to a sideways range between 1.1324 and 1.2081. Although the dollar index fell sharply after the Fed's decision to hold again in July, this decline is insufficient to alter the medium-term range-bound pattern for EURUSD. Our view is that during US trading hours today, following the release of the Fed minutes, the dollar index could see another emotional dip, but the decline should be noticeably narrower. The impact on gold and non-US currencies may be less pronounced.<br><br>Chart 2, CME FedWatch Fed rate hike probability - ATFX<br><br>According to CME's rate monitoring tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September stands at only 34.4%, making a hike nearly implausible. The probabilities for October, December, and January of next year all remain below 46%, which is also a relatively subdued level. As the expectation of further Fed hikes continues to diminish, the likelihood of the dollar index breaking down from its sideways consolidation increases. Of course, the underlying uncertainties lie in international energy prices and the direction of US inflation. Only with sustained easing of inflation will Fed hike expectations cool, thereby driving the dollar index lower.<br><br>ATFX Risk Disclosure, Disclaimer, and Special Statement: The market carries risk, and investment requires caution. The above content represents only the personal views of the analyst and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not treat this report as your sole reference. Analyst opinions may change over time, and updates will not be separately notified.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Due at 2 AM: Dollar and Gold Brace for Volatility</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Due at 2 AM: Dollar and Gold Brace for Volatility\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039043262\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Deep News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-19 18:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Scheduled for release tomorrow at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes correspond to the July 28-29 rate decision. At that time, the central bank opted to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, and the market's rate hike expectations suffered a significant blow, leading to a sharp drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold on that day.<br><br>Following the release of these minutes, there is potential for a fresh wave of speculation regarding the waning of Fed rate hike expectations. Investors should be wary of sharp fluctuations in the dollar and gold, with the potential for a negative impact on the dollar index while benefiting precious metals and non-US currencies.<br><br>Since July 28, the dollar index has shown a short-term depreciation trend, influenced by the coordinated intervention in the yen by US and Japanese authorities. This depreciation is largely artificial rather than market-driven. There remains a possibility of secondary intervention measures by both nations, and some major hedge funds have already begun closing their short yen positions. Retail traders should also exercise caution regarding the yen's exchange rate.<br><br>Tensions between the US and Iran are showing signs of easing. While international oil prices remain near the $80 mark, the momentum for further gains is noticeably weakening. International energy prices are a key determinant of the trajectory of US inflation. Should US inflation data show a significant retreat over the coming month, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike would diminish significantly, potentially paving the way for a resurgence of the dollar index's bearish trend.<br><br>WTI crude is currently stable near $85. Until the US-Iran situation is resolved, this price level appears to reflect a genuine supply-demand balance, making a significant breakout in either direction unlikely unless there is a dramatic shift in the news flow.<br><br>Chart 1, EURUSD and Fed rate curve overlay over the past decade - ATFX<br><br>As the chart illustrates, the EURUSD trajectory generally maintains an inverse relationship with the Fed's rate curve. When the Fed enters a rapid hiking cycle, EURUSD tends to depreciate sharply, as seen in the pattern from 2022 through late 2023. Exceptions exist, such as the period before 2018 when EURUSD appreciated quickly despite ongoing Fed hikes, driven by robust eurozone economic growth and the ECB's tightening monetary policy with a substantial reduction in QE allowances. In the absence of external disruptions, the inverse correlation between EURUSD and Fed rates is likely to persist.<br><br>With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% throughout its meetings this year, EURUSD has been confined to a sideways range between 1.1324 and 1.2081. Although the dollar index fell sharply after the Fed's decision to hold again in July, this decline is insufficient to alter the medium-term range-bound pattern for EURUSD. Our view is that during US trading hours today, following the release of the Fed minutes, the dollar index could see another emotional dip, but the decline should be noticeably narrower. The impact on gold and non-US currencies may be less pronounced.<br><br>Chart 2, CME FedWatch Fed rate hike probability - ATFX<br><br>According to CME's rate monitoring tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September stands at only 34.4%, making a hike nearly implausible. The probabilities for October, December, and January of next year all remain below 46%, which is also a relatively subdued level. As the expectation of further Fed hikes continues to diminish, the likelihood of the dollar index breaking down from its sideways consolidation increases. Of course, the underlying uncertainties lie in international energy prices and the direction of US inflation. Only with sustained easing of inflation will Fed hike expectations cool, thereby driving the dollar index lower.<br><br>ATFX Risk Disclosure, Disclaimer, and Special Statement: The market carries risk, and investment requires caution. The above content represents only the personal views of the analyst and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not treat this report as your sole reference. Analyst opinions may change over time, and updates will not be separately notified.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","JULD":"Premium Income 10 Barrier ETF","MUNX":"AMG GW&K Muni Income ETF","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","IAT":"安硕美国地区银行ETF","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","EBUF":"Innovator Emerging Markets 10 Buffer ETF - Quarterly","FEM":"First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund","WAMA":"WisdomTree U.S. Adaptive Moving Average Fund","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","OOQB":"One+One Bitcoin and Ether ETF","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多","BBIB":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Treasury Bond 3-10 Year ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","ISHG":"iShares S&P/Citigroup 1-3 Year I","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GBUG":"Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","IAUI":"NEOS Gold High Income ETF","NELS":"Nelson Select ETF","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","NEMD":"Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency ETF","IAUM":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","BGLD":"FT Vest Gold Strategy Quarterly Buffer ETF","BBLB":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Treasury Bond 20+ Year ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","KBWB":"银行ETF-PowerShares","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","VFH":"Vanguard Financials ETF","PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SHNY":"MICROSECTORS GOLD 3X LEVERAGED ETN","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","JNUG":"金矿指数二倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TLTI":"NEOS Enhanced Income 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF","GLTR":"abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","DULL":"MICROSECTORS GOLD -3X INVERSE LEVERAGED ETN","YGLD":"Simplify Gold Strategy PLUS Income ETF","DPST":"Direxion每日三倍做多区域银行股ETF","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","BBSB":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Treasury Bond 1-3 Year ETF","RAUS":"RACWI US ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","BEGS":"RAREVIEW 2X BULL CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS ETF","USG":"USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","CIVG":"Corgi 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF","TBJL":"Innovator 20+ Year Treasury Bond 9 Buffer ETF - July","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","TLTX":"Global X Treasury Bond Enhanced Income ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","LIAJ":"LifeX 2053 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","BK4504":"桥水持仓","XLF":"金融ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","GLDY":"Defiance Gold Enhanced Options Income ETF","TYO":"3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","FLGV":"Franklin U.S. Treasury Bond ETF","BK4207":"综合性银行","TSYW":"Roundhill Treasury Bond WeeklyPay ETF","JDST":"金矿指数二倍做空ETF","DGZ":"做空黄金ETN(德银)","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","SGOV":"iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DBND":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","KRX":"KBW区域银行业指数","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","BAR":"GraniteShares Gold Shares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","UYM":"基础材料指数ETF-ProShares两倍做多","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","IGLD":"FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income ETF®","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","SPYB":"Tradr 2X Long SPY Weekly ETF","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","GDXY":"YieldMax Gold Miners Option Income Strategy ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","02840":"SPDR金","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF","SGDM":"Sprott Gold Miners ETF","KGLD":"Kurv Gold Enhanced Income ETF","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","OUNZ":"VanEck Merk黄金股票基金","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","KRE":"区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","IGOV":"iShares安硕全球国债ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","EMPB":"Efficient Market Portfolio Plus ETF","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","XLRI":"The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Premium Income Fund","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","ZROZ":"PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S","TFJL":"Innovator 20+ Year Treasury Bond 5 Floor ETF - July","BTGD":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","MYCN":"SPDR SSGA My2034 Corporate Bond ETF","GOAU":"U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF","XBIL":"US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PICK":"iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BWX":"国际主权债ETF-SPDR","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","FAAR":"First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","BWZ":"SPDR Bloomberg Short Term International Treasury Bond ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","CEF":"Sprott Physical Gold & Silver Trust","JPST":"JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190235509","content_text":"Scheduled for release tomorrow at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes correspond to the July 28-29 rate decision. At that time, the central bank opted to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, and the market's rate hike expectations suffered a significant blow, leading to a sharp drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold on that day.Following the release of these minutes, there is potential for a fresh wave of speculation regarding the waning of Fed rate hike expectations. Investors should be wary of sharp fluctuations in the dollar and gold, with the potential for a negative impact on the dollar index while benefiting precious metals and non-US currencies.Since July 28, the dollar index has shown a short-term depreciation trend, influenced by the coordinated intervention in the yen by US and Japanese authorities. This depreciation is largely artificial rather than market-driven. There remains a possibility of secondary intervention measures by both nations, and some major hedge funds have already begun closing their short yen positions. Retail traders should also exercise caution regarding the yen's exchange rate.Tensions between the US and Iran are showing signs of easing. While international oil prices remain near the $80 mark, the momentum for further gains is noticeably weakening. International energy prices are a key determinant of the trajectory of US inflation. Should US inflation data show a significant retreat over the coming month, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike would diminish significantly, potentially paving the way for a resurgence of the dollar index's bearish trend.WTI crude is currently stable near $85. Until the US-Iran situation is resolved, this price level appears to reflect a genuine supply-demand balance, making a significant breakout in either direction unlikely unless there is a dramatic shift in the news flow.Chart 1, EURUSD and Fed rate curve overlay over the past decade - ATFXAs the chart illustrates, the EURUSD trajectory generally maintains an inverse relationship with the Fed's rate curve. When the Fed enters a rapid hiking cycle, EURUSD tends to depreciate sharply, as seen in the pattern from 2022 through late 2023. Exceptions exist, such as the period before 2018 when EURUSD appreciated quickly despite ongoing Fed hikes, driven by robust eurozone economic growth and the ECB's tightening monetary policy with a substantial reduction in QE allowances. In the absence of external disruptions, the inverse correlation between EURUSD and Fed rates is likely to persist.With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% throughout its meetings this year, EURUSD has been confined to a sideways range between 1.1324 and 1.2081. Although the dollar index fell sharply after the Fed's decision to hold again in July, this decline is insufficient to alter the medium-term range-bound pattern for EURUSD. Our view is that during US trading hours today, following the release of the Fed minutes, the dollar index could see another emotional dip, but the decline should be noticeably narrower. The impact on gold and non-US currencies may be less pronounced.Chart 2, CME FedWatch Fed rate hike probability - ATFXAccording to CME's rate monitoring tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September stands at only 34.4%, making a hike nearly implausible. The probabilities for October, December, and January of next year all remain below 46%, which is also a relatively subdued level. As the expectation of further Fed hikes continues to diminish, the likelihood of the dollar index breaking down from its sideways consolidation increases. Of course, the underlying uncertainties lie in international energy prices and the direction of US inflation. Only with sustained easing of inflation will Fed hike expectations cool, thereby driving the dollar index lower.ATFX Risk Disclosure, Disclaimer, and Special Statement: The market carries risk, and investment requires caution. The above content represents only the personal views of the analyst and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not treat this report as your sole reference. 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