To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reports fiscal-second-quarter results after the August 26 close, and few investors doubt that demand for its accelerators remains enormous. The harder question is whether the surrounding AI infrastructure can earn enough to support the capital, financing and increasingly expensive components required to deploy Nvidia’s systems at the pace reflected in its valuation.

The first quarter, ended April 26 and reported May 20, set an extraordinary benchmark. Revenue increased 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, while Data Center revenue rose 92% to $75.2 billion. Nvidia also authorised another $80 billion of repurchases and raised its quarterly dividend. Nvidia’s official financial-results archive provides the reported figures. The company will discuss the quarter ended July 26 at 5 p.m. Eastern on August 26, according to its official earnings event.

The bullish thesis is broader than accelerator-unit growth. Nvidia supplies networking, interconnects, systems and software around its GPUs, allowing it to capture more of each AI cluster. CUDA’s installed developer base and optimised software libraries raise switching costs, while the move from Blackwell to Vera Rubin gives cloud providers a recurring reason to upgrade.

Nvidia is also working with six large financial institutions on more than $500 billion of AI-infrastructure financing, demonstrating both the scale of demand and its willingness to help remove capital constraints. Reuters’ market preview describes the financing effort.

The bearish case is embedded in the same strategy. Supporting customers or infrastructure projects can expand Nvidia’s market, but it can also blur the distinction between independent end demand and demand assisted by the supplier. Power, land, memory and networking are becoming bottlenecks.

A report published August 22 said customers had been warned that AI-server prices could rise by more than 15% because of higher memory costs; Nvidia had not publicly commented on the report. Reuters’ August 22 coverage explains the reported change. Higher system prices are bullish only while customers retain sufficient returns to accept them.

Competition from custom accelerators and AMD remains another risk, as do export controls and the possibility that hyperscalers eventually moderate spending. The earnings call therefore needs to address gross margin, Rubin supply, customer-financing exposure and evidence that deployed computing is generating sustainable usage.

NVDA Weekly Chart

Nvidia fell 1.0% to $214.72 on August 21 after trading between $214.50 and $218.74 on 98.9 million shares. The stock declined every session that week and remained below the $225–$228 breakdown area. Immediate support is around $205–$210, followed by $195–$200; resistance sits near $219–$225 and then the May high of $236.54.

Selling low-delta premium before the report is not automatically high probability because the catalyst can overwhelm every chart level. If NVDA holds above $200 and reclaims $215 after earnings and the implied-volatility contraction, a 30–45-day $190/$180 bull put spread—or liquid strikes near 0.10–0.15 short-put delta below support—would provide defined risk. A post-results close below $200 with falling estimates invalidates the setup. Maximum loss equals the $10 width minus credit received.

The business evidence leans bullish, but the near-term stock outlook is neutral until the report clarifies margins and the quality of financed demand. The view would be invalidated by Data Center growth slowing sharply, Rubin delays, material gross-margin compression, financing exposure expanding without corresponding cash returns or the stock losing $200 after earnings. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice; it is not an instruction to enter any trade.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.