To The Moon

Bitcoin jumped 22% last week, marking its biggest weekly gain in three years. At one point, Bitcoin surged as much as 9.4% in a single day, reaching around $77,000.

Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs also reached their highest level in 10 months. The 13 U.S.-listed funds attracted a combined $1.92 billion in net inflows, the strongest weekly total since October last year.

So why did Bitcoin rally so sharply this time? I think there are several key reasons.

1. The direct catalyst: U.S. Treasury bond buybacks

The U.S. Treasury’s long-term bond buyback program helped push down long-term Treasury yields, directly improving sentiment across the cryptocurrency market.

The rapid rise in Bitcoin also forced traders to close billions of dollars worth of short positions, creating additional buying pressure through short covering.

On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump met with executives from the cryptocurrency industry, further strengthening optimism toward digital assets.

2. Stronger underlying support from long-term holders

According to data compiled by Compass Point, long-term holders now control around 83% of the Bitcoin supply, the highest proportion since December 2023.

The distribution of investor cost bases has also become healthier compared with periods near previous market highs.

Among Bitcoin currently held by investors who tend to buy and hold, only 14% was acquired at prices above $100,000, down from around 30% last October.

Another 19% of the supply has a cost basis between $60,000 and $70,000.

Compass Point noted that roughly 19% of Bitcoin supply is concentrated in this $60,000-$70,000 cost range. During previous bear-market bottoms, the share of supply accumulated around comparable price zones was roughly 15%.

This suggests that a relatively strong support base may now be forming around current levels.

3. Strong ETF inflows added fuel to the rally

Large inflows into Bitcoin ETFs last week provided another important source of demand, helping push Bitcoin prices sharply higher.

At the same time, rising prices and strong ETF flows further improved investor sentiment, creating a positive feedback loop between capital inflows and market momentum.

What happens next?

In the short term, Bitcoin appears somewhat overextended after such a rapid rally, although there are still solid factors supporting the market.

After the recent surge, a certain degree of correction or consolidation would not be surprising.

It is also unclear whether the liquidity boost associated with the Treasury bond buyback program will prove temporary or develop into a more persistent tailwind.

However, from a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin may now be in the final stage of the crypto winter, with valuations potentially having already formed a major bottom.

If that is the case, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive, and the asset could still be worth staying bullish on despite the possibility of short-term volatility.

Bitcoin ETF Picks

1. IBIT — iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

IBIT has approximately $59.01 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of 0.25%.

Its biggest advantages are scale and liquidity. Launched by BlackRock’s iShares, IBIT directly tracks Bitcoin and has become one of the most representative spot Bitcoin ETFs in the market. It is particularly suitable for investors who value trading liquidity, institutional scale, and a major asset-management brand.$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$

2. BTC — Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

BTC has approximately $4.399 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of just 0.15%.

It can essentially be viewed as the lower-cost version of GBTC. The fund was spun off from GBTC in 2024, with its biggest advantage being its very low management fee. It is therefore particularly attractive for investors focused on minimizing long-term holding costs.$比特币(BTC.USD.CC)$

3. FBTC — Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund

FBTC has approximately $13.46 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of 0.25%.

The fund is issued by Fidelity. One of its key advantages is that its Bitcoin holdings are custodied through Fidelity Digital Assets, giving investors exposure to an integrated ecosystem combining Fidelity’s traditional asset-management business with its own digital-asset custody infrastructure.$比特币ETF-Fidelity(FBTC)$

4. BITB — Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

BITB has approximately $2.713 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of 0.20%.

Bitwise is an asset manager specializing in digital assets, so BITB’s main selling points are its crypto-focused expertise and relatively low fee.$比特币ETF-Bitwise(BITB)$

Although its asset size is smaller than that of IBIT and FBTC, its 0.20% expense ratio remains competitive.