To The Moon

One-sentence theme: Alibaba's largest-ever HK$80 billion secondary offering drained liquidity from the Hong Kong market, triggering a sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks. U.S. equities are in a wait-and-see mode between Bessent's trillion-dollar buyback (which the market doubts) and Friday's Jackson Hole symposium.

I. Sentiment Focus: Alibaba's Massive Capital Drain Bleeds Hong Kong

Alibaba plans a HK$80 billion secondary offering at HK$112.7 per share — the largest-ever new share placement in Hong Kong history, aimed at solidifying its AI leadership position.

• This is the direct cause of today's Hong Kong market plunge: a placement = discounted new shares = dilution + supply shock. The placement price of HK$112.7 is below the current price → pulling the stock price directly toward HK$112.7, while also draining liquidity from the broader market.

• Two sides to this: In the short term, it's a capital-draining negative (price pressure). However, the funds are directed toward AI (growth-oriented use), and the long-term cloud/AI thesis remains intact. → Don't rush to catch the falling knife; wait for the placement to be digested and the stock to stabilize before considering Sell Put.

II. Other Key Events

NVIDIA AI chip price hike of 17%: A genuine positive, but less impactful than Treasury yields. This week, the stock is expected to remain in a 200–240 range (with 8/26 earnings being the core catalyst).

Bessent plans to use $1 trillion for bond buybacks: Last week, the Treasury already doubled its buyback scale, but the impact on yields was short-lived — the market remains skeptical of Bessent's "available funds," and the broader market still fell after the announcement. → The true direction will hinge on the Fed Chair's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday (the new Chair's debut).

III. Notable Block Trades

• BABA: 11/20-expiry 160 Call (47,000 contracts)$BABA 20261120 160.0 CALL$  + 10/16-expiry 160 Call (27,000 contracts)$BABA 20261016 160.0 CALL$  + 9/18-expiry 135 Call (21,000 contracts) — all sold. Heavy Sell Call activity capping the upside → following the placement, the market believes Alibaba's upside is limited, with resistance at 135/160.

• GLD: 1/15/2027-expiry 450 Buy Call$GLD 20270115 450.0 CALL$ , 20,000 contracts → long-term bullish on gold to 450.

• IGV: 9/18-expiry 100 Sell Call, 20,000 contracts$IGV 20260918 100.0 CALL$ → betting on software sector consolidating at low levels through mid-September.

Summary: Alibaba is capped by heavy Sell Call pressure (placement negative), software is capped, while gold has long-term bullish positioning → capital is cautious on China ADRs/software and bullish on gold (weak dollar).

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

1. Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact.

2. Gold Sell Put: The increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

3. SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM). For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.