8/25 Pre-Market Thoughts: Big Money Loading Up
One-sentence theme: Smart money is buying — Pelosi is betting on AI power (BE/INTC), while Jack Ma and Joe Tsai are adding to Alibaba. At the same time, crude oil plunged 3% (Middle East easing).
I. Sentiment Focus: Big Players Buying in Sync
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Pelosi family bets on "AI Power"
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On 7/24, purchased 10,000 shares of INTC + 15,000 shares of BE, along with long-term call options expiring in June 2027$BE 20270617 100.0 CALL$ $INTC 20270617 50.0 CALL$.
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BE (Bloom Energy) = solid oxide fuel cells, capable of providing on-site power directly to data centers and large commercial clients → a "power supply concept stock" tied to AI data center expansion.
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Jack Ma and Joe Tsai have been adding to Alibaba for days (founder support following the placement)
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Jack Ma has been buying Alibaba Hong Kong shares for several consecutive days, with total purchases exceeding HK$600 million. After Ma bought 720,000 shares on Monday, Joe Tsai followed with another 720,000 shares (HK$8.2 million), expressing strong confidence in Alibaba's AI prospects.
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This echoes yesterday's dynamic: Alibaba's HK$80 billion placement caused a "massive capital drain" and a sharp drop, while today the founders are putting real money to work to support the stock — a hedge between the bearish (placement dilution) and bullish (founder buying) forces. This is a signal of potential stabilization for Alibaba and worth tracking.
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Crude oil plunges 3% (Middle East easing)
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NYT reported: internal documents indicate that U.S. diplomats who were evacuated may return to their Middle East posts this week, suggesting that an Iran conflict may not materialize → geopolitical risk premium fades, crude oil drops sharply.
II. Notable Block Trades (With Interpretation)
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GLD: 9/18 420 Call closed → rolled to 430 Call (115,900 contracts) $GLD 20260918 430.0 CALL$ . However, the 9/4 420 Buy Put (12,000 contracts) $GLD 20260904 420.0 PUT$ suggests partial profit-taking while maintaining a bullish outlook, with a short-term Put hedge → gold is likely to enter a consolidation phase.
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XLE: 12/18-expiry 60 Buy Put (15,000 contracts)$XLE 20261218 60.0 PUT$ → bearish on the energy ETF (aligning with the crude oil plunge).
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NVDA: 2027/1 180 Buy Put (98,000 contracts) $NVDA 20270115 180.0 PUT$ + sell 2027/6 140 Put (120,000 contracts) $NVDA 20270617 140.0 PUT$ → long-term downside protection / moderately bearish (buying long-dated insurance ahead of earnings).
III. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches
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Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact.
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Gold Sell Put: The increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally (block trades are also hedging) — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.
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SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM). For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Celebrity/insider trading disclosures are delayed and do not represent current trading timing. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; please control position sizes and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- winzy·08-25 22:22I’m with the gold angle here: pullbacks make more sense for GLD sell puts than chasing this rip. The 420 put looks closer to the sweet spot if vol stays bid into September.LikeReport
- AmandaViolet·08-25 22:22Those June 2027 calls are the tell here, not a quick flip. Nearer-dated vol can pop faster, but BE plus INTC on the power angle feels like a real theme 👀LikeReport
