To The Moon

A huge thank you to Jonathan Lo and the Tiger Brokers (Singapore) team for bringing their Q3 Markets Commentary to our investors!

Jonathan walked us through the macro landscape dominating this quarter—oil-driven rate volatility, persistent inflation, geopolitical risks, and the evolving AI cycle driving global earnings resilience. With nearly 20 years of practical trading and multi-asset experience, his insights on macro-directed long-short strategies were incredibly timely.

Read full sumarize>> Beyond the AI Hype: Positioning for Q3 Volatility, China Policy Shifts & Singapore Stability

Key Messages:

• Navigating Q3 Volatility: How Interest Rates, Oil, and Geopolitics Shape Your Portfolio

• Is the AI Trade Exhausted? Understanding Sector Rotation and Smart Capital Flows

• Beyond US Borders: Evaluating China and Singapore in a Fragmented World

The Macro Puzzle Every Investor Needs to Understand

As we move through Q3, markets are grappling with a complex web of interconnected risks. For retail investors, understanding how these pieces fit together is essential for making informed decisions rather than reactive ones.

The Interest Rate Conundrum

The Federal Reserve remains focused on bringing inflation toward its target, but the path is anything but linear. Market participants are closely watching the "sticky" components of inflation—services, housing, and wages—rather than volatile categories like food and energy.

Key Insight: When evaluating inflation data, distinguish between "flexible" prices (which move quickly, like gasoline) and "sticky" prices (which move slowly, like rent and healthcare). The Fed cares more about the latter. If sticky inflation remains elevated, the Fed is likely to keep rates "higher for longer," even if headline inflation appears to cool.

Oil Prices: The Lever on the Economy

Oil acts like a lever on global economic growth. When prices spike, energy-importing nations face higher costs across their economies—from transportation to manufacturing—which can reignite inflation expectations and pressure central banks to tighten policy further.

Analysts typically model three scenarios:

• Base case ($85–$105): Manageable headwinds, selective sector impact

• Stress case ($105+): Broader economic instability, heightened inflation

• Extreme case: Economic contraction (currently viewed as unlikely)

Investor Takeaway: Monitor oil futures curves, not just spot prices. When futures markets show "backwardation" (near-term prices higher than future prices), it often signals expectations that supply will normalize. This can relieve pressure on interest rate expectations and support risk assets.

Geopolitical Risk Premium

Beyond US-Iran tensions, a broader mosaic of geopolitical events is elevating the "risk premium" in markets. Historically, when geopolitical uncertainty rises, certain sectors—such as defense, gold, and energy—tend to benefit as investors seek hedges or direct exposure to supply disruptions.

Actionable Framework: Rather than trying to predict geopolitical outcomes, maintain a diversified allocation that includes assets with low correlation to your core equity holdings. Consider whether your portfolio has adequate exposure to real assets or defensive sectors during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Disclaimer：

The content presented herein is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.