To The Moon

One-sentence theme: NVIDIA beat earnings, breaking above 220 and challenging 225. But block trades are collectively betting on "gold / Hong Kong stocks / China ADRs topping out" ahead of Jackson Hole (betting on a hawkish Warsh and a dollar rebound). The tone: range-bound trading at key levels — don't chase highs; wait for Warsh to set the tone.

I. Sentiment Focus

NVIDIA Challenges 225 (Earnings Delivered)

Post-earnings, the stock broke above 220, with revenue doubling YoY beating expectations, and next-year guidance calling for 70% revenue growth — strong execution.

Key observation: Can it break 225? (GEX shows 225/230 is a super Call wall, a hard ceiling). If the breakout fails → consider Sell Calls (capture IV crush + cap upside).

Block Trades Collectively Betting on "Top Formation" — Hawkish Positioning Ahead of Jackson Hole ⚠️

Multiple block trades today are highly aligned in direction, all betting on a hawkish Warsh → dollar rebound → gold / Hong Kong stocks / China ADRs topping out and pulling back:

• GLD 11/20 445 Sell Call (15,000 contracts) $GLD 20261120 445.0 CALL$ → gold topping out.

• ASHR 2027/4 35 $ASHR 20270416 35.0 CALL$Sell Call + KWEB 10/16 27 Sell Call (10,000 each) $KWEB 20261016 27.0 CALL$ → China ADRs topping out.

• FXI 2027/3 32 Buy Put $FXI 20270319 32.0 PUT$ (5,000 contracts) → China ADRs bearish.

💡 This echoes yesterday's theme: this is classic "buy the rumor" positioning ahead of the event — the market is already pricing in a hawkish outcome. But beware the reverse risk: precisely because hawkishness is already priced in, if Warsh turns out "less hawkish than expected," gold / Hong Kong stocks / China ADRs could snap back sharply (sell the rumor, buy the fact). Don't bet on direction — wait for the speech to land.

II. Other Events

Salesforce +13%: Q3 guidance beat expectations, with expanded partnership with Anthropic. ⚠️ However, revenue growth is partly from M&A, while core business is still slowing → suitable for Sell Call (the rally has M&A "water" in it).

Apple 9/10 launch of first foldable iPhone: ushering in the new CEO era → a product catalyst — Sell Put could be considered (positioning on dips).

INTC 9/4 88 Buy Call (10,000 contracts) → betting on a short-term rebound (the only offensive trade among the block trades).

III. Notable Block Trades Overview (With Interpretation)

• GLD: 11/20 445 Sell Call (15,000 contracts) → gold topping out (betting on dollar rebound).

• ASHR / KWEB: 2027/4 35 / 10/16 27 Sell Calls (10,000 contracts each) → China ADRs topping out.

• FXI: 2027/3 32 Buy Put (5,000 contracts) → China ADRs bearish.

• INTC: 9/4 88 Buy Call $INTC 20260904 88.0 CALL$ (10,000 contracts) → betting on a short-term rebound (the only offensive trade).

Summary: Except for INTC, block trades are overwhelmingly betting on "gold + Hong Kong stocks + China ADRs topping out" → smart money is positioning for a hawkish outcome / dollar rebound ahead of Jackson Hole. The direction is clear, but before the event lands, beware of a "dovish surprise" triggering a sharp reversal.

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

• Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact.

• Gold Sell Put: The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks (⚠️ if Warsh is hawkish, the pullback will be deeper).

• SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying. For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.