De-Regionalized Financial Commentary
Since quotations and public remarks seem to be so popular,
JO might as well contribute one as well.
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The arguments are coherent.
The evidence is presented.
Well done.
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The fact that newly built homes carry higher construction costs is undeniable.
That is simply the current reality.
However,
higher replacement costs do not automatically guarantee that existing properties—
whether old, aging, or recently built—
can indefinitely sustain today's market valuations.
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Furthermore,
credit conditions have tightened.
Housing vacancies continue to accumulate.
At the same time,
persistent inflation has pushed the cost of living materially higher.
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Second,
birth rates continue to decline.
Single-parent households have become increasingly common.
This is not a criticism of any family structure.
It is merely a reflection of ongoing demographic and social trends.
Combined with elevated divorce rates,
household formation dynamics are changing.
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Third,
every newly purchased home typically implies that another property enters the secondary market.
New supply does not emerge in isolation.
Existing inventory does not simply disappear.
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Looking further ahead,
multiple demographic projections indicate substantial population contraction over the coming decades,
alongside a shrinking working-age population and slower household growth.
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Which leads to a rather straightforward question:
Supply can be measured.
Construction costs can be calculated.
Valuations can be debated.
Narratives can be promoted.
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But ultimately,
where does the future demand come from?
Where is the next generation of buyers?
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This is not a question of optimism or pessimism.
It is a question of demographics,
credit formation,
household creation,
and long-term purchasing capacity.
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The issue has never been whether an asset can be priced higher.
The issue is whether sufficient buyers remain willing and able to absorb that supply.
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Still thought-provoking.
Not anchored to the individual.
Not anchored to the region.
Anchored only to structure.
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