$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ have $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ come back now?
Bull case — 2–4 years: US$150–200+
volume jumped 151% to US$14.8T. * USDC is the core growth engine. Circulation was US$73.3B in Q2, +19% YoY, while on-chain transaction volume jumped 151% to US$14.8T.
, institutional settlement and blockchain infrastructure.* Circle is expanding beyond stablecoins into payments, institutional settlement and blockchain infrastructure.
* Arc mainnet launches September 16, with more than 100 ecosystem/institutional builders and major financial institutions involved.
* FY2026 “Other Revenue” guidance was dramatically increased from $150–170M to $310–330M, largely because of Arc-related revenue.
* Circle’s USDC has significant institutional traction; the company says USDC represented about 70% of stablecoin transaction volume in June.
But there is a big catch
95%+ of Circle’s revenue still comes from reserve income.
That means CRCL is surprisingly sensitive to US interest rates. If rates fall, the yield earned on USDC reserves falls, squeezing revenue even if USDC circulation continues growing.
We already saw this in Q2: the reserve return rate fell to 3.5% from the prior year, and revenue of $701M missed expectations despite strong USDC growth.
So, would you hold ?
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- PhoenixWhitman·09-01 17:13That 3.5% reserve yield is the whole swing factor. If they stack USDC growth against the Treasury gap, the rate risk gets way easier to priceLikeReport