To The Moon

On September 9, 2026, $Apple(AAPL)$ is expected to announce the iPhone 18.

For 19 years, the iPhone has been one of the most anticipated devices of the year, but this year, I can’t help but feel it’s going to be a dud. And not because the phone itself won’t be impressive.

Consumers’ reactions may be driven more by prices.

Maybe it’s because I’m in the market for BOTH a new Mac Studio and an iPhone that I’m feeling the pain of recent price increases. But as someone who doesn’t have any interest in running AI on-device, why should I pay 25% more for a device that does essentially the same thing as it did a year ago?

Sure, the chip is faster, but that’s always the case. The reason prices are up is because of memory costs.

There’s going to be a subset of people who want to pay more for an AI computer, but I’m not one of them. And I think I’m pretty “normie” at this point. So, I may put off my purchase until more memory capacity comes online and prices come down.

How many people are thinking the same?

More on that in a moment.

Apple’s Big Question

Apple has always had premium prices.

But the sticker shock shoppers are going to have when looking at new products right now is new. Apple was “forced” to raise prices because of higher memory costs, but the increases they’ve implemented to maintain high margins may be going too far.

And if Apple doesn’t have inelastic demand at any price, what does that say about the rest of the hardware industry?

This is a balancing act for Apple. For years, the company saw sales of hardware devices decline slightly because they didn’t raise prices, and longer refresh cycles led to lower volumes. That changed about two years ago when slow and steady price increases were implemented by subtly pushing consumers to higher price versions of hardware by putting the best cameras and features in Pro and Pro Max devices.

It was the kind of price increase we see in consumer devices all the time, where the bag of chips gets a little smaller, or the value meal’s size requires an upgrade to be the same size as before. But it worked, and Apple’s revenue picked up in the last few quarters.

But the recent price increases are different. This isn’t a subtle change in prices; it’s a smack in the face.

I’m going to start with the Mac Studio, which started at $1,999 in June. That price went up 25% when new prices were announced, and technically, that entry price still exists. But want to increase memory or upgrade the chip, and you’re looking at prices I’ve never paid for a PC.

Want to upgrade to 64 GB of RAM? The price goes up $1,000 because you also need to go up to the next chip level to unlock anything more than the 36 GB option.

Just for fun, here’s the 256 GB option…

I’d like a more powerful computer, but do I NEED to spend $3,500+ — $1,000 more than I was planning to spend today?

Probably not.

I can extend my M1 MacBook Pro another year or two.

iPhone pricing next week will be even more interesting to watch. As I mentioned, Apple has slowly pushed prices higher by putting new features and more cameras in more expensive phones. And prices are expected to go up another $100 to $200 for the iPhone 18.

What will these price increases mean for volumes?

This is the question I have because volume is about demand elasticity.

How much can a company raise prices before it hurts demand?

Memory stocks are up because prices have gone up and volume has remained flat. This is showing inelastic demand overall in the face of higher prices…at least to a point. I think part of what we’ve really seen is AI crowding out consumer demand.

But Apple doesn’t have an AI product that data centers are buying to replace the iPhone (like memory makers have). It’s the same iPhone consumers as a year ago. Are they willing to pay more for a better camera? Or will the refresh cycle extend further?

But Apple is also one of the biggest customers of memory makers and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ . So, demand for iPhones and Macs is about more than just Apple. It’s about the entire consumer electronics supply chain. If they see lower volumes because people aren’t willing to pay more for computers and iPhones, it’ll show elastic demand as prices go up.

And I think demand has been more elastic than the market wants to admit for years. Refresh cycles have been extended, and competitors arguably have better products at lower prices.

I’ll be watching how quickly Apple’s products leave shelves and how much sales increase compared to prices. Mac Minis and Studios aren’t sold out, yet, so early demand isn’t out of control. But that’s a very small data point.

As an example, if Apple’s sales are up 10% in Q3 while prices are up 20%, it’ll tell you demand destruction is here.

And if higher prices are destroying demand for tech products, it’s a canary in the coal mine for the entire industry.

Like it or not, Apple’s new products are a bellwether for how much more people are willing to pay for devices and “AI” hardware.

My guess is a lot of people will feel the same as I do.

Like waiting for prices to come down until buying a device I don’t have to have today.