Bitcoin September Outlook
$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC)$ $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust(BTC)$ $2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITX)$
Bitcoin’s breakout over the past few months has been textbook according to our strategy.
That said, I have now removed my short-term trades and exposure because, based on my framework, I believe there is roughly a 60% chance of rejection at these levels.
Since the previous bull cycle ended in November 2025, Bitcoin has continued trading within bearish internal market structure.
Each recovery has been followed by another lower low. We saw this pattern in December 2025 and January 2026, as well as during the more recent move from March through April 2026.
For the internal structure to shift bullish, price needs to break above the previous internal swing high near $82,000.
If Bitcoin breaks and holds above that level, it would confirm that internal market structure has turned bullish and could signal the beginning of a new bull cycle.
In that scenario, my expectation would be a move toward approximately $130,000 within the next 6 to 8 months.
If price rejects instead, I would expect a potential move back toward the $65,000 to $70,000 support range before forming a higher low.
That would create a more attractive entry based on a discounted range, and I would be interested in becoming a buyer again.
In that scenario, the move toward new all-time highs may take approximately 12 to 15 months.
Either way, my long-term outlook remains extremely bullish.
I am simply reducing short-term exposure until price either confirms a break above the $82,000 internal swing high or pulls back into a more favorable discounted range.
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