The New CEO, The Stock Rose
I previously thought that even though Apple is a top-tier contrarian stock, it would at least need to show some pullback given the magnitude of macro rate hikes. But I forgot about Apple's new CEO taking over — his first public appearance is on September 10. Before that, the stock absolutely cannot fall — how would that look? Wall Street these days can't even let the market drop on July 4th, so you really have to appreciate the unwritten rules of the game.
In any case, although there is a 340 Sell Call block trade on September 9 $AAPL 20270115 355.0 CALL$ that makes it hard for the stock to break out significantly, I have no doubt that Apple won't fall before next week's keynote. You can confidently sell puts $AAPL 20260909 320.0 PUT$.
The 445 Buy Call was closed $GLD 20261120 445.0 CALL$ . A long call being closed typically means the stock needs consolidation time. Additionally, a single-leg block trade opened selling the 440 call, suggesting the stock is unlikely to break above the previous high by month-end $GLD 20260930 440.0 CALL$ .
$SPDR Energy Select Sector Fund(XLE)
$United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ options aren't very interesting — the big action has shifted to XLE.
First of all, oil prices will definitely fall, but when they fall is up to Trump — it feels like we're back to the familiar first-half playbook. Oil prices haven't yet reached a level that would make the whole market nervous, so next week oil will make one more push higher.
So here's the script: a large block trade closed this week's 63 Call and rolled to next week's 65 Call $XLE 20260911 65.0 CALL$ . At the same time, the stock won't fall next week, so there's a Sell Put 64.5 block trade opening $XLE 20260911 64.5 PUT$. But eventually oil will fall, so there's a long-dated bearish block trade opening $XLE 20261218 62.5 PUT$ .
The largest bullish opening is the Sell Call 51 $IBIT 20270115 51.0 CALL$. However, with a January expiry, it looks more like a Covered Call than a directional bet. Either way, it's hard to see the stock breaking above 50 in September.
It's better to make a judgment after earnings. Looking at the price action, it feels like earnings are trying to spark a short squeeze, but short interest isn't high — institutions are likely hedged. So it would take truly strong earnings to move higher. If it doesn't fall, you can sell the at-the-money 350 Put; if it falls, it's heading toward 320.
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