Same Pattern as the Beginning of Last Month
The market's script over the past two days is almost identical to last month's — a rally in the first few days of the month, led by NVIDIA. The only question is whether the consolidation and pullback that followed will also be the same.
If that's the playbook, then after tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls data is released, the market will gap up and sell off.
The expected minimum pullback level over the next two weeks is 755 $SPY 20260911 755.0 PUT$ $SPY 20260915 755.0 PUT$.
Although I don't think September is a good time to buy calls, a bullish block trade opened yesterday on the 320 Call $NVDA 20270319 320.0 CALL$ . If NVIDIA is the main driver of the rally at the start of every month, then the case for buying calls actually makes some sense.
Bullish up to 400, but not above 400. So you can wait for a pullback and continue selling puts — choosing a strike around 360 $TSLA 20260911 360.0 PUT$.
Intel opened two new Sell Call block trades: selling the September 18-expiry 95 Call $INTC 20260918 95.0 CALL$ , opening 18,000 contracts, and selling the October 16-expiry 110 Call $INTC 20261016 110.0 CALL$ , opening 10,000 contracts.
This price action looks familiar — seemingly falling but not really — very suitable for shorting calls. However, I wouldn't recommend selling naked, as it could easily become fuel for a short squeeze. Also, beware of the sneaky sideways-rally trick: if the stock suddenly turns lower one day and looks like it's heading toward 80, that may actually be a signal that it's about to rise.
Looking back at the beginning of last month's rebound, SPCX was also one of the main drivers of the rally — which explains why it's up today.
This suggests a similar pattern ahead.
On Wednesday, someone opened a 5,000-contract Sell Put at 135 $SPCX 20260904 135.0 PUT$. It feels like next week, after a pullback, you could replicate this strategy $SPCX 20260911 135.0 PUT$.
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