$SPX Bearish SMT Is Here. 7681 Is the Line
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ just printed the bearish SMT I’ve been waiting for.
But I’m still not shorting blindly.
The divergence is the warning.
The daily close below 7681 is the confirmation.
Today’s pullback also created a new bullish Daily FVG, which gives us a very clean line in the sand.
If $SPX closes below 7681, that FVG flips into an iFVG and I’ll treat it as the trigger for the next move lower.
That would change the structure from:
bearish divergence → pullback → potential continuation
to:
bearish divergence → FVG failure → confirmed downside expansion.
But there’s still a bullish path.
If the FVG holds, sellers haven’t taken control yet. $SPX could still push back above last week’s high and sweep the highs before the larger reversal begins.
So I’m not chasing the first red candle.
I’m watching 7681.
Hold the FVG → another high is possible.
Lose 7681 on a daily close → downside setup gets activated.
That’s the level that matters now. 👀
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