To The Moon

$Micron Technology(MU)$ Yes — MU is moving again, and this rally looks more fundamental than just momentum.

🔥 What’s driving Micron now?

The biggest development is the memory supply squeeze. DRAM and NAND prices are rising sharply as AI data-centre demand competes for capacity. Recent industry estimates suggest DRAM prices could rise around 50% this quarter, with NAND potentially up about 60%.

More importantly, Micron is planning to nearly double HBM production capacity to ~100,000 wafers/month by the end of 2026. HBM is the high-margin memory required by AI accelerators.

And this isn’t a small recovery: Micron’s FY2026 Q3 revenue reached $41.46B, with net income of $28.24B.

📈 The really interesting part

Micron has already risen enormously, so normally I’d be worried about chasing it.

But the fundamental earnings cycle is still accelerating.

Micron’s next major catalyst is its September 30 FY2026 Q4 earnings. Current expectations cited by Barron’s are roughly:

* Revenue: $50.4B

* Adjusted EPS: $30.89

* versus $11.32B revenue / $2.84 EPS a year earlier.

That’s extraordinary earnings growth.

But here’s the catch ⚠️

MU is becoming a cyclical AI memory supercycle stock rather than simply a semiconductor stock.

The biggest risks are:

1. Valuation expectations are now extremely high

2. Memory prices eventually turn down

3. Samsung/SK Hynix increase HBM capacity

4. Chinese competitors such as CXMT gain DRAM share

5. AI infrastructure spending eventually slows

CXMT has already increased its DRAM market share from 4% to about 10%, so competition shouldn’t be ignored.

🎯 My view

I’d separate the company from the stock price.

Company: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

12–18 month fundamentals: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Risk/reward at $1,000+: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Long-term risk: memory-cycle reversal

I would not chase a huge green candle, but I also wouldn’t automatically sell just because MU has gone up so much.

If you already own MU, I’d be inclined to hold and let the earnings cycle play out, with the September 30 report being the next major checkpoint.

And given the stocks you’ve asked me about recently, MU is actually one of the more interesting AI plays right now because the AI boom is translating directly into higher memory prices and much higher earnings, rather than merely promising future AI revenue.

If you tell me your MU number of shares and average cost, I can work out whether I’d hold / trim / add, including specific price levels for the next move.