$SPY: The First Move Is In. What Happens Next?
The reopening trade after the Labor Day holiday kicked off with a sharp morning drop, pulling $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ down to test $767.23. Options pricing implied a daily 1-standard-deviation move of $3.31 ($766.20 to $772.82). The initial move hit the lower range of that expected volatility band within the first 30 minutes of trading
Key Technical Levels
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Resistance 2 (Gap Fill Target): $772.80 (Upper expected move boundary and Friday session high)
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Resistance 1 (Pivot / VWAP Zone): $770.20–$771.50 (DeMark Pivot High and previous close)
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Key Support Floor: $766.20–$767.00 (Session low & initial expected move lower band)
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Support 2 (Liquidity Pocket): $763.50 (Late-August swing low target)
Execution Scenarios
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Scenario A: Bearish Trend Continuation (Primary)
Setup: Acceptance and 15-minute candle closing below $766.50.
Trigger: Failure to reclaim $768.50 on bounce attempts.
Target: $765.15 followed by $763.50.
Stop Loss: $769.80.
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Scenario B: Bullish Reclaim & Gap Fill (Alternative)
Setup: Liquidity sweep at $766.20 followed by immediate buying volume back above $768.50.
Trigger: 5-minute candle closing back above $770.20.
Target: $772.80 (Full gap fill).
Stop Loss: $767.50.
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