If oil reaches US$100 a barrel, producers and oil-exporting countries are likely to benefit from higher revenue and stronger cash flow. Energy stocks, oilfield-service companies and some commodity-linked businesses could also gain.
The losers would include airlines, logistics firms, chemical manufacturers and other businesses with high fuel costs. Consumers may face more expensive petrol, transport, food and everyday goods. Oil-importing countries could also see wider trade deficits and greater inflation pressure.
For my portfolio, I would avoid making a sudden concentrated bet on oil. Will consider maintaining some exposure to energy for diversification while favouring financially strong companies. Will also keep a balance of defensive sectors, dividend-paying stocks and cash, since higher oil prices could increase inflation and market volatility.
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- zaza10·09-14 12:22If crude really hits 100, the supply chain impact gets messier than that and may even pull forward the substitution toward renewables. The inflation pass-through would be nastyLikeReport