To The Moon

Economic Calendar (14Sep2026)

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The main event in the coming week will be the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with the previous rate standing at 3.75%. While the decision itself will be closely watched, the accompanying FOMC statement may be even more important, as it will help shape expectations for future interest rate moves.

Consumer Spending and Retail Sales

Retail sales data for August will also be released in the coming week. This report will provide an important indication of the consumption outlook and the underlying strength of consumer demand.

Energy, Manufacturing, and Labour Market Indicators

· Crude oil inventories will be released, offering insight into oil demand expectations and the outlook monitored by oil producers.

· The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September will be reviewed as a useful gauge of manufacturing activity and sentiment.

Initial jobless claims will be another key data point for the interest rate outlook, as the Federal Reserve.

Earnings Calendar (14Sep2026)

For the coming earnings, let us look at Trip.com.

Valuation and Market Sentiment

Trip.com’s share price has fallen by more than 47% over the past year. Technical indicators point to a “strong sell,” while analyst sentiment remains more constructive, with a “buy” rating and a price target of $59.98. This implies potential upside of 53.72%.

Its P/E ratio of 6.0 appears attractive despite the share price decline. Before drawing a conclusion, however, it is important to review the company’s financial performance from 2021 to 2025.

Consumer and Travel Demand Signals

Trip.com Group’s earnings offer a useful barometer of Asian consumer health and global travel demand. Domestic lodging and transit volumes can indicate whether Chinese households are still prioritising experiential spending despite broader economic pressures, while corporate travel revenue provides a proxy for regional trade activity and business expansion.

Sector Trends and Technology Leverage

Flight booking margins will help show how price-sensitive consumers remain amid currency movements and higher fuel costs. Sector performance will also reflect the recovery in outbound travel to Europe and Southeast Asia, as well as inbound travel to China, capturing the impact of visa-free policies and restored international flight capacity.

Margin resilience will be especially important, as it indicates how effectively major online travel platforms are using generative AI automation and personalised search tools to reduce customer acquisition costs. Together, these indicators provide a clearer view of global mobility trends and consumer discretionary strength.

Revenue Growth and Profitability

• Total revenue increased from $20 billion in 2021 to $62 billion in 2025.

• Gross profit more than tripled, rising from $15.4 billion to $50.2 billion over the same period.

• Net income improved from a loss of $0.5 billion in 2021 to a profit of $33.2 billion in 2025.

The company’s margins also remain strong. Gross margin on a trailing twelve-month basis stands at 80.32%, while net profit margin is 48.65%. Return on investment is more modest at 5.21%, suggesting that profitability is strong but capital efficiency may warrant closer review.

Balance Sheet Strength

Between 31 December 2021 and 31 December 2025, total assets increased from $191.8 billion to $267.3 billion. Total liabilities rose more modestly, from $81.4 billion to $94.7 billion, while total equity grew from $110 billion to $172 billion.

Debt levels appear manageable, with long-term debt to equity at 6.44% and total debt to equity at 18.82% on a most recent quarter basis.

Cash Flow Trends

Cash flow trends present a more mixed picture. Levered free cash flow peaked at $15.6 billion in 2023 but declined to $2.1 billion by 2025. By contrast, cash flow from operations improved significantly, rising from $2.4 billion to $14.3 billion over the same period.

The trailing twelve-month price-to-free-cash-flow ratio stands at 79.14, which should be assessed in the context of the recent decline in free cash flow.

Q2/2026 News

Heading into the upcoming Q2 2026 reporting, news surrounding Trip.com Group centered on heightened market scrutiny, shifting growth expectations, and analyst revisions.Management’s guidance for Q2 2026 projected net revenue growth to decelerate to approximately 3% to 8% year-over-year. This marked a notable slowdown from Q1 2026, when revenue rose 17% to $2.35 billion, driven by surging international gross bookings and a 90% jump in inbound travel.The conservative Q2 outlook prompted several major financial institutions—including Barclays, Mizuho, Citi, and Nomura—to cut their price targets for the stock. Concerns focused on potential margin compression and normalizing domestic demand following the post-pandemic travel boom. Despite these headwinds and year-to-date share price declines, Wall Street consensus maintained a general “Buy” stance, pointing to the company’s solid balance sheet and long-term positioning across global travel markets. - compiled by Gemini

Earnings

The forecast for EPS and revenue is $6.12 and $15.62B, respectively.

This is one company that we can consider. This is not financial advice, and due diligence is recommended.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (14Sep2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is in a downtrend.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

This shows a current downtrend.

Chaikin Money Flow

CMF index shows a score of -0.21. This implies more selling momentum than buying momentum.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Neutral” rating with 9 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 9 indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “33”, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index suggests that general market sentiment is “Fear”, slipping down further from the previous week’s “Fear” sentiment.

Weekly Outlook

Based on the above, the S&P500 should be BEARISH for the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (14Sep2026)

President Trump says he does not need approval from Congress to issue $5,000 dividend checks to Americans. Congress normally has sole authority to approve spending. - X user Watcher Guru

RECORD LOW ratings for Trump. A new FT poll shows ONLY 33% of voters approve of his performance, and with the midterms nearly two months away, the clock is ticking. Even his own base is cracking. Republican approval has dropped to an ALL TIME LOW of 72%. It seems many Americans have finally had enough of Trump’s promises not matching the reality they are living in with endless wars driving up THEIR costs. Two thirds of voters say the U.S economy is heading in the wrong direction AND 57% say their own financial situation has worsened under Trump. So much for the Golden Age of America - Source: FT / Writer: Bri

A US judge has ruled that the US Constitution does not guarantee a right to clean drinking water or accurate information from public officials, per Bloomberg

My Investing Muse (14Sep2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

US job openings revised down by 177,000 in June, the 3rd straight downward revision - X user Kalshi Finance

There is an employment recession in the US Information sector. The Information industry shed -23,000 jobs in August, bringing employment down to 2.75 million, its lowest since the 2020 pandemic. The Information sector includes software publishing, data processing and computing infrastructure, web search, telecom, broadcasting, publishing, and other information services. Excluding 2020, this is the lowest reading since April 2015. Since the November 2022 peak, Information employment has contracted -270,000, or -12%. By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis and its aftermath, employment in this industry also fell -12%, or -350,000 jobs. AI is increasingly replacing skilled human labor across parts of the Information sector. - X user The Kobeissi Letter.

Global corporate restructuring drove several significant layoff announcements across major industries between September 7 and September 13, 2026. In the automotive sector, Jaguar Land Rover announced plans to cut 4,000 positions over the next two years, while Volkswagen expanded its global restructuring program to initiate workforce reductions of up to 50,000 employees globally. Meanwhile, the technology and media sectors saw US adtech firm The Trade Desk reduce its global workforce by 15 percent, impacting teams across multiple regions including Singapore, as CNBC began closing its Hong Kong studio operations to discontinue several daily live broadcasts. Additionally, consumer goods giant The Campbell Soup Company announced a 13 percent reduction in its salaried workforce—affecting approximately 550 roles—alongside closing two snack production facilities to curb rising operational costs. - Retrenchment news compiled by Gemini

Debts

Governments, corporations and consumers are leaning into debt to make “ends meet”. This is an interesting situation that we are getting ourselves into. With bonds getting into recent record rates, the Yen carry trade, and the recent crash in the Korean stock market that wiped out many leveraged accounts, are we going to see a repeat of all these in America and other countries?

I assume that most of us have watched the movie “The Big Short” and this seems to be making a comeback recently. There are more who are raising concerns about the market, and yet the market is trading near an all-time high.

Despite the concerns about the “AI bubble”, we are seeing record buyers entering into the trading space, and it seems that some of them are doing well. The stock market may be a “transitional” zone as people are seeking employment. When we step into the waters, we can show grace, but the market will never offer mercy. Is this a temporal solution as people work out their next employment? Yet, time has taught us that wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient, from those who have the knowledge versus those without, from those who are in a hurry to those in a lesser hurry. The circumstances may not always apply, but the gains and losses are there.

Compound these with the rising fuel prices, the climate extremities and disasters we keep reading about, I hope that we are not heading towards a perfect storm. With a threatening El Niño, summer can prove to be a challenging time for the Southern Hemisphere at the end of the year. How can we forget the Nepal-China tragedy and the crazy fires, floods, earthquakes and volcanic activities that are hogging the news headlines?

I recommend stepping back and seeing the world situation. Let us remember to take profits. Let us remember to hedge accordingly, and maybe more so during such times.

The Middle Eastern conflict is threatening the important Red Sea marine corridor, a vital artery in global supply. Should this access be limited, the impact to global supply chain is not just 10-14 days of extra sailing. It would also mean delays, re-balancing capacity amidst rising costs, limited capacity and even more limited supplies. While logistics customer service and operations enter into overdrive, the sales department is quietly grinning as they increase their prices. The outcome is inflationary, together with a shortage of vessels, capacity, container boxes and more. Coming to perishables, the situation would be even more challenging. Not every shipment can afford airfreight, and not every business can afford the surplus. The Atlantic channel looks to benefit from this development together with the shipping companies.

At this point, let us not forget to include just-in-case stocking.

Rising Leverage and Market Fragility

Governments, corporations, and consumers are increasingly relying on debt to make ends meet. This is becoming a concerning backdrop, especially as bond yields reach recent highs, the yen carry trade remains under scrutiny, and the recent crash in the Korean stock market has wiped out many leveraged accounts. The key question is whether similar stress could emerge in the United States and other major markets.

Many of us have watched The Big Short, and parts of today’s market environment appear to echo some of those earlier warning signs. Concerns are rising, yet markets continue to trade near all-time highs. This contrast between caution and optimism deserves closer attention.

AI, Retail Participation, and the Search for Income

Despite concerns about an “AI bubble,” a record number of buyers appear to be entering the trading space, and some are doing well. For some participants, the stock market may even function as a transitional zone while they search for employment or alternative sources of income.

However, markets do not offer mercy. History has often shown that wealth moves from the impatient to the patient, from those without knowledge to those with deeper understanding, and from those in a hurry to those who can afford to wait. The circumstances may differ, but the gains and losses remain very real.

Climate, Energy, and the Risk of a Perfect Storm

These financial pressures are being compounded by rising fuel prices, more extreme weather, and frequent reports of natural disasters. With a threatening El Niño pattern, the Southern Hemisphere could face a challenging summer toward the end of the year.

The Nepal-China tragedy, together with fires, floods, earthquakes, and volcanic activity dominating recent headlines, is a reminder that economic and environmental risks can converge quickly.

Risk Management and Supply Chain Readiness

Against this backdrop, it may be wise to step back and assess the broader global situation. Investors should remember to take profits where appropriate and hedge accordingly, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty.

The Middle Eastern conflict is also threatening the Red Sea maritime corridor, a vital artery in global supply chains. If access is restricted, the impact would extend beyond an additional 10 to 14 days of sailing time. It could also create delays, force capacity rebalancing, raise costs, and worsen shortages of vessels, capacity, container boxes, and critical supplies.

Perishable goods would be especially vulnerable, as not every shipment can shift to air freight and not every business can absorb the additional cost. The Atlantic route and shipping companies may benefit from this disruption, but the broader outcome would likely be inflationary.

• Review portfolio exposure and take profits where risk-reward has become less attractive.

• Hedge positions where volatility or geopolitical risk could affect returns.

• Reassess supply chain resilience, especially for routes exposed to Red Sea disruption.

• Consider just-in-case stocking for critical or time-sensitive inventory.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$