To The Moon

My Investing Muse (14Sep2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

US job openings revised down by 177,000 in June, the 3rd straight downward revision - X user Kalshi Finance

There is an employment recession in the US Information sector. The Information industry shed -23,000 jobs in August, bringing employment down to 2.75 million, its lowest since the 2020 pandemic. The Information sector includes software publishing, data processing and computing infrastructure, web search, telecom, broadcasting, publishing, and other information services. Excluding 2020, this is the lowest reading since April 2015. Since the November 2022 peak, Information employment has contracted -270,000, or -12%. By comparison, during the 2008 Financial Crisis and its aftermath, employment in this industry also fell -12%, or -350,000 jobs. AI is increasingly replacing skilled human labor across parts of the Information sector. - X user The Kobeissi Letter.

Global corporate restructuring drove several significant layoff announcements across major industries between September 7 and September 13, 2026. In the automotive sector, Jaguar Land Rover announced plans to cut 4,000 positions over the next two years, while Volkswagen expanded its global restructuring program to initiate workforce reductions of up to 50,000 employees globally. Meanwhile, the technology and media sectors saw US adtech firm The Trade Desk reduce its global workforce by 15 percent, impacting teams across multiple regions including Singapore, as CNBC began closing its Hong Kong studio operations to discontinue several daily live broadcasts. Additionally, consumer goods giant The Campbell Soup Company announced a 13 percent reduction in its salaried workforce—affecting approximately 550 roles—alongside closing two snack production facilities to curb rising operational costs. - Retrenchment news compiled by Gemini

Debts

Governments, corporations and consumers are leaning into debt to make “ends meet”. This is an interesting situation that we are getting ourselves into. With bonds getting into recent record rates, the Yen carry trade, and the recent crash in the Korean stock market that wiped out many leveraged accounts, are we going to see a repeat of all these in America and other countries?

I assume that most of us have watched the movie “The Big Short” and this seems to be making a comeback recently. There are more who are raising concerns about the market, and yet the market is trading near an all-time high.

Despite the concerns about the “AI bubble”, we are seeing record buyers entering into the trading space, and it seems that some of them are doing well. The stock market may be a “transitional” zone as people are seeking employment. When we step into the waters, we can show grace, but the market will never offer mercy. Is this a temporal solution as people work out their next employment? Yet, time has taught us that wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient, from those who have the knowledge versus those without, from those who are in a hurry to those in a lesser hurry. The circumstances may not always apply, but the gains and losses are there.

Compound these with the rising fuel prices, the climate extremities and disasters we keep reading about, I hope that we are not heading towards a perfect storm. With a threatening El Niño, summer can prove to be a challenging time for the Southern Hemisphere at the end of the year. How can we forget the Nepal-China tragedy and the crazy fires, floods, earthquakes and volcanic activities that are hogging the news headlines?

I recommend stepping back and seeing the world situation. Let us remember to take profits. Let us remember to hedge accordingly, and maybe more so during such times.

The Middle Eastern conflict is threatening the important Red Sea marine corridor, a vital artery in global supply. Should this access be limited, the impact to global supply chain is not just 10-14 days of extra sailing. It would also mean delays, re-balancing capacity amidst rising costs, limited capacity and even more limited supplies. While logistics customer service and operations enter into overdrive, the sales department is quietly grinning as they increase their prices. The outcome is inflationary, together with a shortage of vessels, capacity, container boxes and more. Coming to perishables, the situation would be even more challenging. Not every shipment can afford airfreight, and not every business can afford the surplus. The Atlantic channel looks to benefit from this development together with the shipping companies.

At this point, let us not forget to include just-in-case stocking.

Rising Leverage and Market Fragility

Governments, corporations, and consumers are increasingly relying on debt to make ends meet. This is becoming a concerning backdrop, especially as bond yields reach recent highs, the yen carry trade remains under scrutiny, and the recent crash in the Korean stock market has wiped out many leveraged accounts. The key question is whether similar stress could emerge in the United States and other major markets.

Many of us have watched The Big Short, and parts of today’s market environment appear to echo some of those earlier warning signs. Concerns are rising, yet markets continue to trade near all-time highs. This contrast between caution and optimism deserves closer attention.

AI, Retail Participation, and the Search for Income

Despite concerns about an “AI bubble,” a record number of buyers appear to be entering the trading space, and some are doing well. For some participants, the stock market may even function as a transitional zone while they search for employment or alternative sources of income.

However, markets do not offer mercy. History has often shown that wealth moves from the impatient to the patient, from those without knowledge to those with deeper understanding, and from those in a hurry to those who can afford to wait. The circumstances may differ, but the gains and losses remain very real.

Climate, Energy, and the Risk of a Perfect Storm

These financial pressures are being compounded by rising fuel prices, more extreme weather, and frequent reports of natural disasters. With a threatening El Niño pattern, the Southern Hemisphere could face a challenging summer toward the end of the year.

The Nepal-China tragedy, together with fires, floods, earthquakes, and volcanic activity dominating recent headlines, is a reminder that economic and environmental risks can converge quickly.

Risk Management and Supply Chain Readiness

Against this backdrop, it may be wise to step back and assess the broader global situation. Investors should remember to take profits where appropriate and hedge accordingly, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty.

The Middle Eastern conflict is also threatening the Red Sea maritime corridor, a vital artery in global supply chains. If access is restricted, the impact would extend beyond an additional 10 to 14 days of sailing time. It could also create delays, force capacity rebalancing, raise costs, and worsen shortages of vessels, capacity, container boxes, and critical supplies.

Perishable goods would be especially vulnerable, as not every shipment can shift to air freight and not every business can absorb the additional cost. The Atlantic route and shipping companies may benefit from this disruption, but the broader outcome would likely be inflationary.

• Review portfolio exposure and take profits where risk-reward has become less attractive.

• Hedge positions where volatility or geopolitical risk could affect returns.

• Reassess supply chain resilience, especially for routes exposed to Red Sea disruption.

• Consider just-in-case stocking for critical or time-sensitive inventory.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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