Live Recap 3: A Fed Cut Is Not Automatically Bullish — What the Labor Market Is Really Saying
1. Live Review Introduction
Tiger Brokers’ What The Expert Says session featured Selina Han, Founder of Han Insights, Chief Product Officer of GSA Technologies and former Cboe economist, alongside James Early, CEO of Curia Financial and longtime investment research professional. Hosted by Esther Xiao, the discussion explored the Fall 2026 investment outlook through one central chain: Debt → Rates → Markets → Trades.
Investors often treat rate cuts as good news for equities. Lower rates reduce financing costs and increase the present value of future earnings.
But the Fall 2026 discussion asked a more useful question: Why is the Fed cutting?
A soft-landing cut and a recession-driven cut can produce very different market outcomes.
Disclaimer: The session has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The views expressed are those of the speakers and do not represent Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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2. The Fed Is No Longer Fighting the Same Battle as 2022
The deck first puts the current debate in context. The Federal Reserve delivered seven rate increases in 2022 and another four in 2023 as inflation surged.
By 2026, the issue had shifted from how far the Fed needed to tighten toward when it could safely ease.
3. Headline Data Still Look Relatively Resilient
The presentation’s latest dashboard shows August payroll growth of 162,000, unemployment at 4.1%, labor-force participation of 61.6%, and average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year.
Headline CPI was shown at 3.4% year over year, while core CPI stood at 2.5%.
Those numbers do not immediately point toward an economic emergency. Employment is still expanding, unemployment remains relatively low and inflation is still sufficiently elevated to limit how aggressively the Fed can ease.
But the headline statistics do not tell the entire story.
4. The 162K Jobs Number Hides Large Sector Differences
Payroll growth is a net figure.
The deck shows that food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs, while local-government education contributed another 42,000. Construction added 22,000, manufacturing 16,000 and healthcare 13,000.
At the same time, information employment fell 23,000, while financial activities lost 11,000 jobs.
That explains why some workers can experience a very difficult employment environment even while national payrolls remain positive.
The labour market is not one market.
5. Why 4.1% Unemployment Can Miss Stress
The unemployment rate also has limitations.
Someone who wants work but has stopped actively looking is no longer classified as unemployed under the headline measure. The presentation notes that approximately 5.7 million people outside the labor force still wanted a job.
There was additional hidden slack. Around 1.9 million people were long-term unemployed, representing approximately 27% of unemployed workers, while another 4.4 million were working part-time for economic reasons despite wanting full-time employment.
Participation also remained at 61.6%, below its level earlier in the year.
Taken together, the figures suggest a labour market that is weaker underneath than the headline unemployment rate implies.
6. What Does This Mean for the Fed?
The presentation does not suggest that the data justify emergency cuts. Payroll growth remains positive and headline inflation is still above levels consistent with complete comfort.
Instead, the picture supports a more gradual easing scenario if inflation continues cooling.
That distinction matters enormously for stocks.
A moderate cutting cycle accompanied by continued economic growth can support equities by reducing financing costs without destroying corporate earnings. But if the Fed cuts rapidly because employment and economic activity are collapsing, investors may care far more about falling profits than lower interest rates.
Closing Takeaway
The most important question for investors may not be:
“Will the Fed cut?”
It may be:
“What economic conditions are forcing the Fed to cut?”
The same rate cut can carry very different messages depending on whether it reflects successful disinflation or economic distress.
7. Risk Reminder
Macroeconomic data are backward-looking and frequently revised. Monetary-policy expectations can change rapidly as inflation and employment data evolve.
8. Post-Event Resources
Viewers can follow Selina Han on Tothemoon ( @Selina_Han_Insights) or visit the Han Insights website (https://haninsights.com/). The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
