To The Moon

Over the weekend, the three tech giants reached a verbal agreement to slow AI development, causing AI-related concept stocks to plunge — hardware fell, and cloud giants fell too. But I'm thinking about something else: Anthropic's post-IPO earnings and stock performance will likely be very hard to predict, because the CEO can say whatever he wants. Data disclosure is one thing; the earnings call is another.

The broader market pullback driven by the three giants' rhetoric looks like a great Sell Put opportunity to me. I mean, do you believe commercial companies won't compete, or do you believe I'm Qin Shi Huang? The verbal slowdown has no actual capex data to back it up — it looks more like expectation management.

One explanation for the three giants' slowdown is that they're compromising with Congress to slow AI development. But when the reason comes out of Anthropic's CEO's mouth, it turns into a different kind of public opinion scare — making AI look even worse in the eyes of the American public.

The key point is: I don't know why Anthropic would lower market expectations before its IPO. It could be managing down expectations ahead of its developer conference. And this week's decline has Triple Witching options providing a floor — the cushion is fairly thick.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

Three large block trades very thoughtfully tell us what the market will look like through mid-October:

• QQQ Buy Put 690 $QQQ 20261002 690.0 PUT$ , volume 21,000 contracts, notional $9.53 million.

• SPY Buy Put 685 $SPY 20261016 685.0 PUT$, volume 12,700 contracts, notional $1.98 million.

• SPY Sell Call 785 $SPY 20260925 785.0 CALL$ , volume 20,900 contracts, notional $940,000.

The logic: Before October earnings season, the market is under pressure from macro factors. So SPY is unlikely to rally above its previous high, and the extent of any pullback depends on risk conditions — a pullback to the 60-day MA (nearly achieved), the 120-day MA (735), the 200-day MA (714), or a break below the 200-day MA.

This week's pullback target has already been met. With a large amount of open options pinning the stock price, Friday's outcome will likely remain respectable, holding support levels. But if Friday's market merely maintains a respectable facade, then from next week through early October, a major pullback will unfold — see you at the 120-day MA.

In short: Late September is high-risk. Close part of your positions on Friday and watch whether Monday gaps down. If you're holding stock, remember to sell Covered Calls.

$Apple(AAPL)$

Institutional Bear Call Spreads are anchoring this week's stock price below 345 $AAPL 20260918 345.0 CALL$  — Covered Calls are worth considering. As a Mag 7 company that doesn't need to worry about debt-funded capex and sits on rich cash flow, it's well-suited for Sell Puts during macro turmoil. Unfortunately, the current price is too high — you'll need to wait for a pullback. This week's trading range is tightly pinned by Triple Witching, roughly 330–340.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

If you hold META, you can sell Covered Calls at 700 $META 20260925 700.0 CALL$ . Although the large Sell Call block chose 660, and capital was initially avoiding debt-laden stocks this week for safety, META with MUSE backing suddenly looks much more presentable — so you can also Sell Puts on pullbacks $META 20260925 620.0 PUT$.

A brief explanation of how MUSE boosts META's stock price: High download rankings, many downloads = large user base. The MUSE experience = a household butler, seizing usage rights across various life application scenarios, equivalent to rebuilding the traffic distribution mechanism.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$

Sell Puts on the pullback! $SKHY 20260925 160.0 PUT$ — same logic for MU and SNDK. Interestingly, the three memory concept stocks haven't moved in sync over the past two weeks. The main reason can be observed in the GEX distribution. This is also why their ranges are pinned — this week SKHY's range is 170–200, MU around 900, and SNDK around 1,500. So in theory, MU and SNDK are suitable for dual-sell strategies.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

If not for the FOMC, NVDA would likely close very standardly at 210 this week — also suitable for a dual-sell strategy. Consider Sell Call 220 and Sell Put 200: $NVDA 20260918 220.0 CALL$  $NVDA 20260918 200.0 PUT$ .

$Intel(INTC)$

Monday's open pushed INTC back into the 95–100 range. This week's closing range will likely also be 95–100, so you can Sell Put 90 $INTC 20260918 90.0 PUT$.

However, put positioning expectations are very low. It's hard to say whether a second round of shakeout will begin after Triple Witching.

$SpaceX(SPCX)$

Expected to close this week at 150–155. You can Sell Put 140 $SPCX 20260918 140.0 PUT$.