Being Long $NVDA and $AMD Means Being Long OpenAI and Anthropic
Here’s the part of the AI trade I think investors are underestimating.
If you're long $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ and other AI infrastructure names, you're ultimately long the spending decisions of the biggest AI model companies.
OpenAI and Anthropic matter enormously.
They are among the companies driving the demand for compute, chips, power and data-center capacity. If their growth expectations or funding plans change, the impact can travel through the entire AI infrastructure chain. Recent moves by both companies to reconsider the pace of frontier AI development have already put that dependency back in focus.
And here's the bigger question:
What happens when compute starts behaving like a commodity?
If you're selling access to compute, you're ultimately selling units of processing capacity.
One token may differ from another in quality, but at the infrastructure layer, supply and demand still set the economics.
Think about oil.
The U.S. doesn't need to import Iranian oil for Iranian production to influence global oil prices. Oil is a global commodity. Changes in supply or demand anywhere can affect prices everywhere.
AI compute could develop some of the same characteristics.
That doesn't mean $NVDA or $AMD are simply commodity businesses today. Nvidia's ecosystem, software stack and product leadership give it meaningful differentiation.
But investors should still watch the demand side of the equation.
OpenAI spends more → infrastructure suppliers benefit.
Anthropic scales faster → more compute gets deployed.
Frontier AI spending slows → the entire supply chain feels it.
And that's why I think the next few years will separate companies playing offense from companies simply selling capacity.
The biggest winners usually control something valuable.
Don't just ask who is selling the picks and shovels. Ask who controls the gold mine. ⛏️💰
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