$SPY Rate Hike Risk Meets Strong Earnings
The Fed decision is the big event this afternoon, with another 25 bps hike to 3.75%–4% widely expected.
A lot of that risk may already be baked into $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Still, the market has plenty of reasons to stay volatile. 🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Higher rates, inflation, the Japanese yen unwind and the uncertainty around the midterms are all adding pressure to the tape.
That leaves room for another pullback. I’m watching $748–$750 as a possible downside zone into next month if volatility picks up. 📉
But there’s another side to the trade.
$SPY is ultimately tied closely to the earnings power of the companies inside it, and corporate earnings remain extremely strong. That’s why I still see room for a move toward $780+ in Q3 and potentially $820 by Q4 if the broader trend stays intact. 🚀
For today, $760 is the level to watch.
A clean move above $760 and the ability to hold it would keep the upside setup alive. If price can’t reclaim that level, volatility could remain the dominant theme.
Macro headlines may shake the market, but price action and earnings will tell us where $SPY actually goes next. 👀
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
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