To The Moon

Wall Street walked into Friday with one set of assumptions, and walked out with another. A sharply weaker September jobs report forced traders to rethink the economy’s momentum and the Fed’s next move, and that shift in expectations sent equities higher.

• $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +1.19%

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.73%

• Dow: +0.49% (+250 pts)

Tech led the rebound, helping the Nasdaq lock in a winning week. The Dow and S&P 500 still finished the week slightly lower, but Friday’s tone was decisively risk‑on.

A Jobs Report That Scrambles the Narrative

Key details:

Jobs

• Payrolls: +29,000 (vs. expectations for a much stronger gain)

• Revisions: July + August revised down by 60,000

• Unemployment: 4.2% (up from 4.1%)

• Wage growth: +0.1% MoM soft, and not inflationary

• Three‑month average job gains: 51,000 consistent with a balanced labor market

The headline miss was dramatic, but the underlying picture still points to stability: unemployment lower over 12 months, layoffs minimal, and job creation sufficient to keep supply and demand aligned.

A data distract the Fed from its primary focus on inflation, but acknowledged that markets used the data as one more reason to price out an October hike.

Rate‑hike odds for Oct. 28 now sit near 63% for a pause, after being nearly 50/50 the day before.

Yields React, Then Reassert Themselves

Short‑duration yields dipped on the jobs miss, but the move didn’t last. By the close:

• 2‑year: back to 4.8%

• 10‑year: 5.3%

The bond market is still signaling tight conditions, even if the Fed is less likely to move this month.

Sector Snapshot

• Hot Stock: $Teradyne(TER)$ +8.0%

• Biggest Loser: $Western Digital(WDC)$ –10.2%

• Best Sector: Consumer Discretionary +1.4%

• Worst Sector: Healthcare –0.04%

A Quiet Week Ahead Before Earnings Hit

Next week offers a brief pause before Q3 earnings season kicks off.

On deck:

• Constellation Brands (Tue)

• PepsiCo (Thu)

• $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ (Fri)

Macro catalysts are limited, but not absent:

• ISM Services PMI (Mon)

• FOMC minutes (Wed)

• University of Michigan Sentiment (Fri)

The real action begins Oct. 13, when the big banks open the earnings floodgates.

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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