To The Moon

Since SpaceX’s listing, its share price has declined by approximately 50% from its all-time high, followed by a phase gain of roughly 54%. Behind such drastic stock volatility lie both opportunities and risks. At present, SpaceX’s core business and corporate development objectives represent a milestone in the commercial spaceflight history of humankind, embodying a groundbreaking leap for human aerospace endeavors. Therefore, even though the company is operating at a loss, it remains favored by global capital. Is this rally a sustained uptrend or merely a rebound? Are investors offloading shares at high price levels? Or are institutional investors engaging in malicious short selling before accumulating positions at lower price points?

For investment institutions and investors participating in SpaceX equity investment, it is imperative to conduct an objective assessment of the firm’s operational capacity, commercial value and core competitiveness. A more impartial judgment can be formed by additionally evaluating SpaceX’s industry influence and market share.

Based on capital flow behaviors and valuation analysis derived from multi-cycle trend monitoring, it is projected that SpaceX’s current daily timeframe trend will develop a top consolidation pattern around the $200 mark on the daily chart, after which the stock price may retrace once again. For institutional and retail investors pursuing long-term trend holdings of SpaceX, against the current enterprise valuation of approximately $2 trillion, the entry range between $137 and $155 constitutes a relatively cost-effective buying zone.

It is projected that over the next 5 to 10 years, SpaceX’s stock price will trade between $600 and $1,300, forming the top structure for the subsequent monthly timeframe cycle.

For investors and institutions adopting short-term arbitrage trading strategies, staged profit-taking may be considered within the $195–$210 range. Meanwhile, market participants must prepare for the risk of valuation erosion, whereby the stock price may fall back to around $129 following this phase of appreciation.

Drawing upon the market capitalization management traits demonstrated by Elon Musk’s team during their stewardship of Tesla, it is expected that the first weekly or monthly market cycle for SpaceX will gradually drive the company’s market capitalization upward to a range of $6 trillion to $8 trillion. This objective valuation projection accounts for the impact of the company’s first-phase corporate development targets. Realization of this forecast remains contingent upon geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions as well as the company’s actual operational performance. Accordingly, institutional and individual investors investing in any listed company must maintain continuous deep monitoring and analysis of industry trends and stock movements on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. This practice effectively mitigates the probability of systemic risks and reduces overall investment exposure.

The above analysis is for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or basis for investment decisions. We will meet again in the next article. Welcome to subscribe to my column for more practically oriented strategy insights.