1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now?
COIN has always been my proxy trade for crypto. With BTC flipping its 50-week MA last month—usually a clear sign the macro trend is shifting back to bullish—and altcoins like QNT, AVAX, and XRP finally showing signs of life, overall liquidity is clearly flowing back into the space. That rising tide inevitably spurs on trading volumes and fee income for Coinbase with earnings right around the corner.
Technically, the setup looks really solid right now:
• Support Confluence: COIN is testing support right at the 200-day MA, with the 50-day and 100-day MAs stacked right below in the $170s as extra cushion.
• Volume Dynamics: Price has been falling on decreasing volume, which is classic—it means selling pressure is drying up rather than big players dumping.
• Momentum Setup: Williams %R is sitting around -53 and creeping up toward -80 (the oversold threshold), setting up for a potential mean-reversion bounce.
With all these confluences aligning, I just layer-sold another cash-secured put at the $180 strike, 17 days out (expiring tentatively Oct 29) to milk more premium. I’m personally not overly optimistic about their upcoming earnings results, so keeping my expiry strictly before their report lets me capture the pre-earnings IV crush without taking on event risk.
2️⃣ What’s my plan from here?
Story time! COIN is actually the exact ticker that got me into options trading—and the hole I dug for myself that I became determined to dig my way out of.
Back when the market was riding the crypto high, I was selling puts left and right until price plummeted and bled nonstop from the 300s all the way down to the 100s. I ended up getting assigned 300 shares at an average of about $300. Still remember being stuck at a work conference while it happened—hands turning cold, panicking, y'know the usual.
Everything happens for a reason, and I made sure to turn that painful lesson into a proper tool in my arsenal for financial independence. Slowly but surely, I traded my way out of it by sizing my positions properly and refusing to rush into trades without clear confluences of support and technicals.
From here, my game plan is:
• The Goal: Continue selling puts at key structural support levels to milk premiums in this "all boats rise when tide rises" scenario.
• The Cycle Target: I’m cautiously optimistic for a run to the $600s this cycle. Drawing a Fibonacci extension (1.50 to 1.618) from the recent high of $444.64 down to the low of $139.11 gives a moonshot target of roughly $597 to $633.
• Risk Management / Invalidation: My macro anchor is Bitcoin. I will immediately pause and reassess this thesis if BTC flips bearish by breaking down below its 50-week MA, or if COIN breaks cleanly below that $170s MA cluster on heavy volume.
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