To The Moon

CFTC Data: What It Is, Why It Matters and What to Watch

The CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders report each week. Known as the COT report, it is a key gauge of positioning across global futures markets. Its main value lies in showing which investor groups are driving price action. Market moves ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital. CFTC data makes these forces visible by breaking positions down by trader category.

The CFTC divides market positions into three main categories:

• Non-commercial: Speculative traders, mainly hedge funds and CTAs, that seek to profit from price moves. They are the most responsive and directional market participants.

• Commercial: Companies that use futures to hedge business risks. Their positions primarily reflect risk management needs and carry a weaker directional signal.

• Non-reportable: Smaller traders whose positions fall below reporting thresholds. Their market impact is generally limited.

Non-commercial positioning is the key focus. These traders seek to profit from price changes rather than protect operating margins. Shifts in their net long or net short positions therefore provide a useful gauge of market direction.

This analysis focuses on open interest, the total number of outstanding contracts. It indicates the level of market participation in each futures contract.

Furthermore, this analysis also uses the COT Index, which standardizes the current net position against its historical range. It ranges from 0 to 1:

COT Index = (Current net position − Period low) ÷ (Period high − Period low)

• Close to 1: Long positioning is crowded, indicating bullish sentiment.

• Close to 0: Short positioning is crowded, indicating bearish sentiment.

Put simply, COT data shows which side investors favor, while the COT Index measures how extreme that positioning has become. Together, they help distinguish an emerging trend from an already crowded trade.

In this edition, we review the latest CFTC data released on October 2.

The analysis uses the following parameters:

• Position date: The close on September 29, 2026, ET. CFTC positions are recorded at each Tuesday’s close. All position figures reflect this snapshot.

• Release date: October 2, 2026, at 3:30 p.m. ET.

• Weekly change: The period from the September 22 close to the September 29 close. Any weekly increase or decrease refers to the change between these two Tuesdays.

• COT Index window: April 7 to September 29, 2026. The period covers 26 reporting dates over 25 weeks, or roughly six months.

Key Weekly Changes in Non-Commercial Positioning

Positioning diverged sharply across asset classes:

• Gold: Net longs edged down 3.20%, but bullish positioning remained largely intact.

• Silver: Net longs fell 13.21% as both bulls and bears reduced exposure.

• Copper: Net longs declined 5.65% but remained elevated.

• Crude oil: Net longs dropped 22.42% despite the rally, indicating weak support from speculative flows.

• S&P 500: Net shorts increased 6.96%, pointing to stronger bearish sentiment.

• Nasdaq 100: Net longs fell 8.73% as investors reduced bullish exposure and turned more cautious.

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Open Interest Analysis

The S&P 500 led with 1.896 million outstanding contracts, followed closely by WTI crude oil at 1.879 million. Gold ranked third with 406,000 contracts. Copper and the Nasdaq 100 recorded 301,000 and 271,000, respectively, while silver had the lowest open interest at 107,000.

Open Interest and Net Positioning Diverged. WTI open interest rose 2.00%, while net longs plunged 22.42%. Both bulls and bears added exposure, pointing to heavy position rotation at elevated price levels. Nasdaq 100 open interest and net longs fell 5.51% and 8.73%, respectively, while S&P 500 open interest edged up 0.28% and net shorts increased 6.96%. This suggests funds reduced Nasdaq exposure while adding S&P 500 shorts for rebalancing and hedging. Gold open interest and net longs declined 1.54% and 3.20%, respectively, consistent with profit-taking. Silver open interest rose 0.54%, while net longs fell 13.21%, indicating stronger selling pressure. Copper open interest edged down 0.15%, while net longs fell 5.65%. Speculative bulls reduced exposure, although net long positioning remained elevated. Overall participation was stable, but bullish momentum weakened sharply.

S&P 500: Open Interest Returns to About 1.9 Million After Contract Roll, Speculative Net Shorts Hit Highest Since June 23

In the week ended September 29, total open interest in E-mini S&P 500 futures edged up by 5,269 contracts to 1.8959 million. Non-commercial longs fell by 8,456 to 209,600, while shorts rose by just 815 to 352,100. As a result, speculative net shorts increased from 133,200 to 142,500, the highest since June 23. This shows that deeper net short positioning was driven mainly by long liquidation rather than aggressive short selling. Non-commercial spread positions fell from 34,100 to 28,600. Meanwhile, commercial longs rose by 22,500 and shorts increased by 16,100, widening commercial net longs from 28,900 to 35,300. Total open interest rose by 374,700 on September 15 and then fell by 555,900 on September 22, while spread positions also rose before retreating. These sharp swings likely reflected the quarterly contract roll. With open interest back near 1.9 million over the past two weeks, the continued increase in speculative net shorts now carries a clearer directional signal.

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Nasdaq 100: Net Longs Retreat from Elevated Levels as Market Participation Cools

In the week ended September 29, total open interest in Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 15,767 contracts to 270,600, the lowest since late June. Non-commercial longs dropped by 7,077 to 81,400, while shorts declined by 2,174 to 30,200. Net longs fell 8.7%, from 56,200 to 51,200, but remained at their second-highest level in nearly six months. Non-commercial spread positions rebounded from 4,600 to 6,700. Commercial longs fell by 10,200 to 142,400, while shorts declined by 14,400 to 204,000. This narrowed commercial net shorts from 65,800 to 61,600, still the second-largest level in nearly six months. Total open interest rose by 30,600 on September 15 and then fell by 39,500 on September 22. Spread positions increased from 8,600 to 15,400 before dropping to 4,600. These swings likely reflected the quarterly contract roll.

The speculative positioning structure remained bullish, but long momentum weakened sharply. Prices edged lower, while non-commercial net longs contracted more significantly. This sharp positioning response suggests investors adjusted exposure much faster than prices moved, pointing to cooling risk appetite. Both bulls and bears reduced positions, with larger cuts among longs and a corresponding decline in total open interest. This indicates active risk reduction, with no sign yet of concentrated short selling. The rebound in spread positions and narrower commercial net shorts mainly reflect structural adjustments and should not be treated as outright bullish signals. The key is whether long liquidation continues and short positions begin to rebuild. The positioning structure would weaken further if both occur.

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Gold: Speculative Net Longs Fall for Third Straight Week but Remain Near Six-Month Highs

In the week ended September 29, total open interest in gold futures fell by 6,344 contracts to 406,500. Non-commercial longs declined by 4,246 to 249,700, while shorts increased by 2,975 to 31,100. Net longs fell 3.20%, from 225,900 to 218,600, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. However, they remained at their seventh-highest level across the past 26 reporting dates. Non-commercial spread positions were broadly unchanged. Commercial longs edged higher, while shorts fell by about 10,600. As a result, commercial net shorts narrowed from 262,900 to 251,000.

Bullish interest in gold is cooling, although positioning has yet to signal a clear bearish reversal. Speculative longs continued to cut exposure, suggesting less willingness to chase higher prices. Short positions increased but remained too small to indicate broad bearish conviction. Meanwhile, commercial net shorts narrowed mainly because hedging shorts declined, partly offsetting the pressure from weaker speculative demand. If gold prices remain stable as net longs decline, the market is absorbing long liquidation. If prices fall while net longs continue to contract, bulls are retreating and correction risk is rising. Gold’s next move hinges on whether fresh buying can replace the longs now exiting.

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Silver: Short Building Pushes Speculative Net Longs to a Six-Month Low

In the week ended September 29, total open interest in silver futures rose by just 573 contracts to 107,000 and was broadly unchanged. Non-commercial longs fell by 1,219 to 33,500, while shorts increased by 2,142 to 11,400. Net longs dropped 13.21%, from 25,400 to 22,100, their lowest level across the past 26 reporting dates. Non-commercial spread positions edged lower. Commercial longs increased by 2,919, while shorts fell by 1,825. As a result, commercial net shorts narrowed from 44,800 to 40,000.

Silver is sending a more cautious signal than gold. Stable open interest shows that market participation held firm, while the positioning mix shifted clearly toward shorts. Around two-thirds of the decline in net longs came from short building. The move therefore reflects rising bearish conviction alongside long liquidation. Commercial net shorts narrowed as longs increased and shorts declined, but this offers no clear evidence that silver has bottomed. Compared with gold, where net longs remain elevated, speculative positioning in silver is materially weaker. Further short building could intensify downside pressure. If silver prices stabilize, the low net long base could create room for short covering and a price rebound.

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WTI Crude: Short Building Pulls Net Longs to a Seven-Week Low as Open Interest Rises

In the week ended September 29, total open interest in WTI-Physical crude oil futures rose by 36,765 contracts to 1.8786 million. Non-commercial longs increased by just 541 to 361,400, while shorts surged by 32,184 to 251,900. Net longs fell 22.42%, from 141,100 to 109,500, the lowest level since August 11. Non-commercial spread positions rose from 557,300 to 563,700. Commercial longs rose by 26,248 to 873,600, while shorts edged down by 1,023 to 1,016,300. This narrowed commercial net shorts from 169,900 to 142,600.

WTI delivered one of the weaker speculative signals among the six markets this week. Total open interest rose while speculative net longs fell sharply, as the increase in short positions was nearly 60 times the increase in long positions. The move was driven almost entirely by fresh short selling rather than long liquidation, while overall market participation also increased. Spread positions expanded alongside the shift in directional postioning. However, COT data cannot confirm whether these contracts reflect fresh capital or position rolls by the same accounts. Commercial net shorts narrowed as commercial shorts eased while commercial longs increased, which may indicate reduced hedging pressure rather than a bullish shift in physical demand. WTI recorded the sharpest short build-up among the six markets, and net longs have fallen to a multiweek low. If short covering follows, prices could see a relief bounce, but continued short accumulation would deepen the bearish positioning shift.

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Copper: Open Interest Remains Elevated as Directional Longs Cool and Spread Positions Rise

In the week ended September 29, total open interest in COMEX Copper No. 1 futures edged down by 456 contracts to 301,200, still the second-highest level in nearly six months. Non-commercial longs fell by 6,093 to 123,300, while shorts declined by 982 to 37,900. Net longs dropped 5.6%, from 90,500 to 85,400, but remained at their third-highest level within the review period. Non-commercial spread positions increased by 6,985 to 66,900, also the third-highest level in nearly six months. Commercial longs were broadly unchanged, while shorts fell by 5,373. This narrowed commercial net shorts from 100,400 to 94,800.

The data point to weaker directional bullish conviction, while the broader positioning structure remains constructive. Elevated open interest shows that overall market participation remains strong. The decline in net longs was mainly driven by long liquidation, while shorts also fell. This indicates little evidence of concentrated bearish positioning. Meanwhile, spread positions rose sharply. These trades target price differences between contract months instead of outright moves in copper prices, making the positioning structure more neutral. Commercial net shorts narrowed mainly because commercial short exposure declined. This may reflect lower hedging demand, although it does not confirm a bullish shift among industry participants. Overall, copper retains a strong bullish base, although directional conviction has weakened. Positioning would deteriorate further if long liquidation continues and short positions begin to rise.

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COT Index Analysis

As of September 29, the 26-period COT Index readings diverged sharply across the six markets. S&P 500 net shorts continued to expand. Nasdaq 100 positioning remained elevated, although its recovery was driven mainly by short covering. Gold stayed strong despite cooling bullish interest, while silver fell to the bottom of its range. Copper net longs remained high and showed no clear bearish reversal. WTI weakened in the short term as short positions rose sharply. Overall, the markets lacked a common direction. Crowded positioning continued to ease, giving way to greater divergence and caution.

S&P 500: COT Index Falls to 0.34 After a Brief Net-Long Shift in August

Over the 26-period window ending September 29, the S&P 500 E-mini COT Index fell from 0.98 on April 7 to 0.52 on April 14. After a brief recovery, it reached 0.00 on June 2, when speculative net shorts stood at 220,800 contracts. The index later reached 1.00 on June 23, July 21 and August 11. Positioning remained net short on the first two dates. August 11 marked the only net-long reading in the period, at 11,300 contracts. The index then declined steadily from 0.66 on August 25 to 0.34 on September 29, while net shorts widened from 68,000 to 142,500.

A higher index indicates smaller net shorts or larger net longs. The June 23 peak mainly reflected a sharp decline in non-commercial shorts. However, total open interest also fell sharply, possibly because of the quarterly contract roll. The move therefore offers a less reliable short-covering signal. By contrast, the upper and lower bounds of the index remained stable after August 11. The subsequent decline came entirely from weaker net positioning and faced less distortion from the rolling window. Still, the current reading of 0.34 sits in the lower-middle part of the 26-period range. It does not yet indicate positioning near its most bearish level in six months.

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Nasdaq 100: Short Covering Turns Net Positioning Positive, Followed by a Mild Late-September Pullback

Non-commercial net positioning in E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell to minus 39,302 contracts on August 11, pushing the COT Index to 0.00. The index reached 1.00 by September 1 and then remained near that level. It returned to 1.00 on September 22 as net longs reached a 26-period high of 56,150 contracts. On September 29, longs fell by 7,077 and shorts declined by 2,174. Net longs eased to 51,247, while the index slipped to 0.95. Total open interest fell by 15,767 to 270,554 contracts.

Between August 11 and September 29, net positioning improved by 90,549 contracts. Short covering accounted for about 87.7% of the increase, while longs rose by only 11,102. The recovery was therefore driven mainly by short exits, with limited fresh long buying. Both sides reduced exposure on September 29, but longs fell more sharply. This signals cooling bullish momentum, while active short building has yet to emerge. A reading of 0.95 only means that net positioning is close to the top of its 26-period range. It does not represent the 95th percentile or prove that long positioning is excessively crowded. The next signals to watch are continued long liquidation and renewed short building.

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Gold: COT Index Retreats to 0.72 After August Peak, While Net Longs Remain Elevated

The gold COT Index reached 0.00 on May 26, when net longs fell to a window low of 154,300 contracts. It then remained at 1.00 from August 4 through August 25, with net longs peaking at 243,300. The index broadly declined afterward, apart from a brief rebound on September 8. By September 29, it had fallen to 0.72, corresponding to net longs of 218,600.

Part of the July increase reflected earlier high-positioning data rolling out of the lookback window, so it did not fully represent a rapid rise in speculative enthusiasm. However, net longs continued to set new highs in August, providing firm positioning support for the index peak. The window’s upper and lower bounds remained unchanged in September, while the index and net longs declined together. This makes the cooling signal more meaningful. Still, a reading of 0.72 places current net longs in the upper part of the range. Bullish interest has eased, although positioning has yet to turn materially weak.

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Silver: Net Longs Fall to a 26-Period Low as the COT Index Drops to 0.00

From early April through mid-June, the silver COT Index remained mostly between 0.01 and 0.19. It rose to 0.54 on June 30 and 0.60 on July 7, before falling to 0.05 on July 28. The index climbed again in late August and reached a period high of 0.79 on September 1. It then trended lower and plunged from 0.56 to 0.00 in the week ended September 29. Over the same week, net longs fell from 25,400 to 22,100 contracts.

Earlier low readings were affected by the rolling window. The previous high of 44,700 contracts from December 9, 2025, remained in the window until June 9, limiting direct comparisons across that date. The September 29 reading carries a clearer directional signal because net longs fell to their lowest level in the current 26-period window. The move did not merely reflect a change in the window boundaries. Since the range of net longs spans fewer than 6,000 contracts, the index is highly sensitive to changes in positioning. A reading of 0.00 does not mean speculative net longs have fallen to zero. It only shows that the current level is the lowest within the rolling window. Speculative positioning in silver is clearly weaker than in gold. This reflects relative divergence, but it does not prove that capital is rotating from silver into gold.

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Copper: Net Longs Remain Elevated, but Long Liquidation Pulls the COT Index Off Its Peak

The copper COT Index rebounded quickly from 0.09 on April 7 and reached 1.00 on May 12, June 2, August 11, August 25 and September 8. Net longs hit a period high of 92,476 contracts on September 8. The index then became more volatile, falling to 0.68 on September 15, rebounding to 0.96 on September 22 and retreating to 0.86 on September 29. Net longs stood at 85,411 contracts. Total open interest fell by just 456 to 301,201, its second-highest level across the 26 observations.

The current reading of 0.86 shows that non-commercial net longs remain elevated, although volatility since the September peak points to cooling directional conviction. The latest decline in net longs was driven mainly by a reduction of 6,093 long contracts. Shorts also fell by 982, suggesting long liquidation with little evidence of concentrated short building. Meanwhile, total open interest remained high and spread positions increased. Overall exposure therefore stayed firm, while the positioning structure became more neutral. Copper speculative net longs remain elevated, and bulls still hold the advantage. Long exposure declined during the week, but positioning has yet to signal a bearish reversal.

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WTI Crude: Sharp Short Building in Late September Pulls the COT Index Back to 0.33

WTI non-commercial net longs broadly declined from 206,500 contracts on April 14 to 62,700 on July 14. Over the same period, the COT Index fell from 0.86 to 0.00. Positioning then gradually recovered, lifting the index to 0.52 on September 22. On September 29, longs increased by just 541 contracts, while shorts surged by 32,184. Net longs fell to 109,500, pulling the index back to 0.33. Total open interest rose by 36,765 to 1.8786 million contracts.

Short building drove the decline in net longs, while long exposure remained broadly stable. The simultaneous increase in total open interest gives the move a stronger directional signal than a decline caused by broad deleveraging. It also shows that the recovery in positioning since early September has lost momentum. However, 0.33 remains in the lower-middle part of the 26-period range, and non-commercial positioning is still net long. The reading alone does not confirm a bearish long-term trend. The index also remains sensitive to the July trough within the rolling window. WTI speculative net longs remain positive, but aggressive short building has weakened the near-term positioning structure. Further short accumulation could reduce net longs more sharply.

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What to Watch in Positioning

The week’s data offer a methodological lesson that matters more than any single directional call. Record open interest does not necessarily signal fresh capital inflows. The increase may come from directional positions, hedging activity or contract rolls. Likewise, rising net longs do not always indicate stronger bullish conviction. The change may reflect new long positions or short covering.

This analysis reflects personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. Futures and gold trading involve substantial risk. Investors should make independent judgments and act with caution.