(Full article) My Investing Muse — Week of October 12, 2026
My Investing Muse — Week of October 12, 2026
Three weeks before the midterms, markets have a lot to digest. This week, I’m focusing on what the key numbers mean—and what I plan to do about them.
I. Economic and Earnings Calendar
Monday is Columbus Day. The bond market is closed, but the stock market is open.
Big banks start reporting Tuesday, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. UnitedHealth also reports.
Wednesday is the key day. September inflation data arrives at 8:30 a.m., alongside results from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. Economists expect headline inflation of 3.6–3.7% and core inflation of 2.4%. The Fed still expects another rate increase this year, but markets see only a small chance of one on October 28. If core inflation runs hotter than expected, markets could react sharply.
Thursday brings retail sales, producer inflation, the Philadelphia Fed survey and jobless claims. TSMC also reports before the market opens.
Friday brings oil inventory data, industrial production, several regional-bank earnings reports and a speech from Fed Chair Warsh.
BlackRock: What I’m Watching
BlackRock matters because it shows where investors are putting their money. A bank shows its own balance sheet; BlackRock gives a broader view of market flows.
Its second-quarter results were strong: a record $15.3 trillion in assets, $868 billion of inflows over 12 months and a 45.9% operating margin. Its iShares business passed $6 trillion.
The longer-term picture is mixed. Revenue rose from $19.4 billion in 2021 to $24.2 billion in 2025, helped by acquisitions. But reported profit fell in 2025 as integration, depreciation and interest costs increased. Adjusted earnings grew, but the headline profit did not. One positive sign: deferred technology revenue nearly doubled to $3.8 billion, which points to income that has been contracted but not yet recognised.
On Wednesday, I want to know whether money kept flowing into BlackRock’s funds during August and September. I’ll also listen for comments on private credit, where higher interest rates may be starting to pressure valuations.
II. S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 reached a record 7,819 on October 6, breaking above its August high after two quiet months.
Still, momentum is weaker than it was in July. The RSI, a measure of market strength, has fallen to 55 from 75. The VIX is also low at 14.8, which suggests investors may be too relaxed ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report.
I’m watching three levels: 7,800, 7,700 and 7,550–7,575. Holding above 7,800 would support the breakout. A drop below 7,550 on a Friday close could open the way to 7,350. The trend is still up, but I do not want to chase it before the inflation data.
Michael Burry warns that investors are in denial. That may be true, but the market is still at record highs and the trend remains positive. I’m taking the warning seriously without betting against the market yet.
The Magnificent Seven and the Rest of the Market
Market leadership changed in 2026. The S&P 500 is up about 14.9%, while the Magnificent Seven gained less. The other 493 companies did better, rising about 16%. That is healthy, but gains narrowed again in the third quarter. The ten largest stocks now make up roughly 38–40% of the index, creating heavy dependence on a small group of companies.
Borrowing has also increased. Margin debt is near a record $1.5 trillion, leaving investors with less room to absorb a fall. Strong earnings and deep markets are positives. But high leverage and market concentration could make any sell-off faster and more severe.
Key levels to watch: around 7,250 for the S&P 500, $4,000 for gold and $75,000–$80,000 for Bitcoin. Breaking those levels could trigger more selling, especially among leveraged investors.
Bottom line: the market is strong, but it is also fragile. I want to stay invested without taking unnecessary risk.
III. News and My Investing Muse
Energy is driving inflation. Brent crude averaged about $114 in September, while petrol and diesel reached record monthly prices. Core inflation is still easing, but the Fed cannot solve an oil shock with higher interest rates.
Car buyers are feeling the pressure. A quarter of new-car loans now run longer than 84 months. The average amount financed is $44,664, with a monthly payment of $787. I’ll be listening for signs that banks are seeing more household stress.
A small insurer is flashing a warning. South Carolina is moving to take control of Atlantic Coast Life Insurance after concerns about risky, hard-to-sell investments. The company is not large enough to threaten the wider system, but the case shows how higher rates can expose weak balance sheets.
Foreign demand for US debt is weakening. China’s Treasury holdings have fallen from $1.3 trillion in 2013 to about $618 billion. Japan still holds about $1.1 trillion, but its demand is softer too. If foreign buyers keep stepping back, US investors may have to absorb more debt at higher yields. BlackRock’s strong bond-fund flows suggest that shift may already be happening.
Anthropic has delayed its IPO to November so it can show third-quarter results first. The reported valuation is close to $2 trillion, with Nvidia said to be investing $10 billion. When the filing appears, I’ll focus on the company’s risks before its price.
Shipping risks remain high. Only seven ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 10, compared with about 125 a day before the war. New attacks could also disrupt the Red Sea route again. The EIA expects Brent crude to average $105 in the fourth quarter.
High petrol prices may shape the election. Kalshi gives Democrats strong odds of winning the House and a smaller edge in the Senate. If they sweep, markets may shift from expecting stimulus to expecting gridlock, which could help bonds.
El Niño remains unusually strong. NOAA says there is a better than 90% chance of a very strong event. That could affect coffee, wheat and monsoon-dependent crops.
My position: I’m cautious. I will wait for Wednesday’s core inflation reading before adding long-term bonds. I see energy dips toward $90 as a chance to hedge, not relax. I’ll review Anthropic’s filing when it appears, watch how bonds react to the election and avoid chasing the S&P 500 before the inflation report.
As always, do your own research and focus on the facts.
Sources: Schwab week-ahead calendar; Cleveland Fed nowcast; EIA STEO (Oct); Kalshi (Oct 10); NOAA CPC (Oct 8); BLK Q2 earnings release and FY2021–25 statements (Jul 15 / Investing.com); Yahoo Finance; Edmunds; USA Herald; Unusual Whales. All figures as of October 9–11, 2026.
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- breezyk·14:13TOPWednesday is the hinge here: if core CPI prints above 2.4%, BLK's reaction could get amplified with earnings landing the same dayLikeReport