1️⃣ Why Am I Making This Trade Now?
Rolling COIN Puts & Capturing High IV:
I am rolling my Coinbase (COIN) short puts (e.g., $180 / $170 strike rolls) to harvest inflated option premiums driven by high Implied Volatility (IV) ahead of earnings.
Macro Tailwind from Bitcoin (BTC):
I expect continued bullish price action in BTC. COIN's high historical correlation with crypto markets provides strong structural support against deeper equity drawdowns.
Buying the Dip into Primary Support ($170 Level):
Even with price pulling back below $180, COIN is consolidating into a heavy demand zone near $170.00. Buyers are repeatedly absorbing sell volume around this level without letting price breakdown further.
Confluence of Technical Indicators:
Fibonacci Retracements: The $170.00 level aligns with key Fib support (78.6% retracement zone) from the recent leg up, serving as an attractive high-confluence entry.
MACD (12, 26, 9): Despite the price pull-back, MACD momentum is starting to flatten out and curl upward, signaling a potential bullish momentum crossover.
RSI (14) & Williams %R (14): RSI is holding near the oversold border (35–40 range) and curling up, while Williams %R is pushing out of deep oversold territory (-80 line), indicating seller exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Price is hugging the Lower Bollinger Band (~$168–$170) during a volatility squeeze, which typically precedes a sharp mean-reversion move back toward the middle band.
Moving Averages (MA): Testing major dynamic support at the 100-Day SMA ($169–$170 zone) while key long-term trend support remains intact.
Volume: Selling volume has steadily declined on recent dips below $180, confirming that selling pressure is drying up.
2️⃣ What’s My Plan From Here?
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
COIN Share Price:
Downside Risk / Invalidation Level: $165.00
Immediate Base Support: $170.00
Pivot / Regain Zone: $180.00
Upside Target Level: $195.00 – $205.00
Fibonacci Retracements:
Downside Support: 78.6% at $170.00
Breakout Pivot: 61.8% at $180.00
Main Upside Targets: 50.0% at $188.00 and 38.2% at $198.00
Momentum Indicators:
RSI (14): Bearish below 35 | Neutral at 45–50 | Bullish expansion above 55+
MACD: Watching for a positive histogram crossover above zero to confirm a broader trend reversal.
EXECUTION & POSITION MANAGEMENT PLAN
Holding for Volatility & Theta Decay:
As long as COIN holds above the $170.00 support floor, I will hold the rolled puts to benefit from rapid IV crush and theta decay into and after the earnings release.
Taking Profit / Reducing Risk on Rebound:
As COIN reclaims $180.00 and pushes toward the upper Fib targets ($188 – $198), I will look to close or reduce short options to lock in profits.
Adding / Adjusting Position:
If price reclaims $180 on strong volume alongside a BTC rally and MACD bullish confirmation, I will consider rolling short strikes up to collect additional premium.
Invalidation & Stop Protocol:
A decisive daily close below $165.00 on heavy sell volume will invalidate this support thesis. If triggered, I might reduce position size or roll short puts down to defend at lower structural levels.
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Close | -4.50 2 | -- Closed |
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