$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Conference call summary: it feels like we're getting close to the point where FSD is the main product and the car is basically the add-on. More than 75% of North American deliveries signed up for paid FSD at delivery, paid customers have hit 1.7 million, and people are walking into showrooms asking for an "FSD drive" rather than a Model 3, Model Y, or Cybertruck. That's a pretty meaningful shift in what's actually selling the car.
Robotaxi also looks like it has entered the steep part of the curve. Austin's Cybercab fleet grew 10x in about a month, unsupervised miles are growing at double-digit rates weekly, Dallas is next, and management thinks Robotaxi could become financially noticeable around Q2 2027 and a big deal by Q3 or Q4.
Optimus is still roughly a year away from external customers, but the Fremont line is designed for about 1 million units annually, AI5 should provide roughly 10x more onboard compute, and there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans. The current engineering bottleneck is apparently the human hand, which turns out to be annoyingly well designed.
Energy may be the sleeper. We're nearly sold out of Megapacks for 2027, driven in part by data-center demand, while Terafab could require tens of billions of dollars through 2028 and more than $100 billion longer term.
Basically, the company is starting to look less like a car company with software and more like an autonomy company that happens to manufacture the hardware too.
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