$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ NOV20 445C, still actionable.
Zone: $428.07 to $434.11
Invalidation: close under $415.50
Objectives: $457, then $487.47
The math: up 6.0% to the first objective and 13.1% to the second, against 3.6% risk on the invalidation, about 3.6 to 1 to the second.
Think of a big ship turning around in a harbor—slow at first, then obvious once the bow points the other way. That's the setup here. Taiwan Semiconductor fell from $487.47 on October 5 to $407.13 on October 15, and since then the lows have climbed step by step, from $410.58 to $415.50 to $423.74, while price holds near $431. Sellers are running out of room underneath, and buyers are paying a bit more each day to step in sooner. The October 15 report is already behind us, so this contract has a clean window to work with.
One level worth watching first: $435.16, the high from that day, because a close above it would show buyers pressing rather than just defending the climb.
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