The AI trade is entering a new phase: investors want proof of returns, not just spending.

Microsoft generated $18.6 billion in quarterly free cash flow, with Azure growth at 48%. Alphabet’s Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, yet negative $9.07 billion in free cash flow overshadowed its growth.

Revenue growth and shareholder value are not the same thing. AI infrastructure demands huge upfront investment, making capital efficiency increasingly important.

Microsoft currently has the stronger financial narrative, but that does not automatically make its stock cheap. Alphabet must prove its AI investments can deliver sustainable returns.

My strategy: focus on free cash flow, forward guidance and valuation rather than chasing earnings surprises. The real AI winner may be the company that converts demand into lasting profits, not the one that spends the most.

@WallStreet_Tiger [暗中观察]

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