To The Moon

Hello everyone! Today we will review the latest technical developments in the Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index, Singapore Straits Times Index, WTI crude oil, gold and silver. Market performance remains divergent, with rebound attempts and downside pressure occurring at the same time. We will combine fundamentals with technical structures to identify key support, resistance and the conditions required to confirm the next move.

Nasdaq: Bearish Structure Persists; Watch Key Support Below

美光科技(MU)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $微软(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2612(MNQmain)$

The Nasdaq is currently being driven by both the interest rate environment and technology earnings expectations. Elevated Treasury yields and hawkish policy expectations are pressuring technology valuations. Companies with high valuations and strong expected earnings growth are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates. If inflation remains sticky and economic data stay strong, expectations for easier monetary policy could weaken further and limit the Nasdaq’s rebound.

Meanwhile, the market is closely watching whether AI companies can convert sustained investment into actual earnings. If rising investment fails to generate corresponding revenue and profit growth, investors may lower earnings forecasts and reprice the technology sector. The Nasdaq is heavily concentrated in large technology companies, so earnings and guidance from industry leaders can amplify index volatility.

Turning to the technical picture, daily Nasdaq highs have continued to move lower, and the overall structure remains bearish. After losing moving average support, the index failed to hold its rebound and declined again, showing that overhead selling pressure remains strong. On the hourly chart, the index was previously rejected between 29,920 and 30,020 before breaking below 29,640 and 29,400 and falling toward 28,760. This reflects weaker rebound momentum and renewed control by sellers.

The first support level is 28,500. If the index stabilizes in this area and begins forming higher short term lows, an interim recovery could emerge. A confirmed break followed by a failed rebound would open further downside toward 28,000. This is an important psychological level where short covering and stronger competition between buyers and sellers may emerge. Effective support would still require weaker selling momentum and a recovery above key price levels.

The first short term resistance is 29,000, followed by 29,400 to 29,580 and the area near 29,640. Zones that previously provided support may become resistance during a rebound. If the index is rejected again at these levels and forms a lower high, the move would remain consistent with a bearish pullback. A recovery above 29,750 followed by a sustained move through 29,920 to 30,030 would indicate stronger buying support and require a reassessment of the bearish outlook.

Hang Seng Index: Near Term Stabilization Emerges; Watch for Support Above 23,245

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The Hang Seng Index can sustain its rebound only if heavyweight sectors such as technology, financials and consumer stocks strengthen together. Mainland China’s third quarter GDP grew 4.5% from a year earlier, supporting expectations for constituent company earnings. However, weak consumption growth and the continued decline in property investment may weigh on consumer and property company profits while affecting bank credit demand and asset quality expectations. An economic recovery provides some support, although further upside will also require stronger earnings from index heavyweights.

Among major technology stocks, Tencent’s adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rose 9% in the second quarter, although capital expenditure increased sharply. Alibaba’s adjusted net profit fell 38% in the June quarter, indicating divergent support from technology stocks. Southbound Trading recorded net sales of about HK$3.359 billion on October 29, including stocks and ETFs, so the rebound still requires confirmation from fund flows. A synchronized recovery in technology and financial heavyweights, supported by sustained southbound buying, would improve the prospects for a more durable rebound.

On the intraday chart, the Hang Seng Index stood at 23,276.17, up 317.52 points or 1.38% from the previous close of 22,958.65. The index retreated after an early advance but then moved higher again, indicating stronger short term buying support. However, intraday gains reflect only current momentum and do not confirm a reversal of the weekly trend.

OANDA HongKong33 stood at 23,282.2 on the weekly chart, with a weekly high of 23,321.7 and a low of 22,930.5, representing a gain of 0.81%. Following several consecutive declines, the latest weekly candle has a smaller body and has temporarily turned positive, suggesting weaker selling momentum. The weekly low also remained above the previously marked 22,816 level, meaning that the index has not made a new downside break.

The key level is now 23,245.2. Weekly prices have moved slightly above this point, and the next question is whether they can remain there. If a pullback holds this level and the index subsequently breaks above the weekly high of 23,321.7, the rebound could extend toward 23,840.8, or approximately 23,841. This remains a conditional upside scenario and should not be treated as a confirmed target.

The first downside level is 22,930.5, followed by 22,816. A renewed break below these levels would challenge the short term stabilization outlook. The clearly marked bullish invalidation level is 22,535. A break below it would require a reassessment of the rebound and shift attention toward 22,282.2.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index is showing signs of short term stabilization, although the previous weekly decline still requires repair. Holding above 23,245.2 and breaking through 23,321.7 will determine whether the rebound can continue.

Singapore Straits Times Index: Pullback From Highs Continues; Watch for a Recovery in Bank Heavyweights

$富时新加坡海峡指数(STI.SI)$ $SGX海峡时报指数主连 2611(STmain)$ $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ $SGX海峡时报指数2610(ST2610)$ $SGX海峡时报指数2611(ST2611)$

The STI’s upside depends heavily on bank heavyweights such as DBS, OCBC and UOB. DBS reported second quarter 2026 net profit of S$3.08 billion, up 9% from a year earlier, while net fee income rose 25%. Growth in wealth management supported earnings. This performance helps sustain the dividend appeal of bank shares and provides fundamental support for the STI.

However, banks continue to face pressure from net interest margins and valuations. DBS’s group net interest margin fell to 1.87% in the second quarter. Higher bond yields may also reduce the relative appeal of bank dividends and affect the valuation of bond portfolios. The STI’s ability to resume its advance will depend on the three major banks’ interest margins, fee income, credit costs and dividend sustainability.

The regional comparison chart shows that the STI gained 73.84% during the displayed period. This was below the 155.57% gain in the South Korea ETF (EWY) and the Nikkei’s 88.59%, but above the Hang Seng Index’s 38.02%, the China large cap ETF (FXI)’s 31.34% and the Vietnam ETF (VNM)’s 27.24%. This indicates that the STI has delivered relatively strong performance over the longer comparison period, and the recent pullback has not erased most of its earlier gains. However, the 73.84% return uses a comparison period beginning around 2024 and should not be interpreted as a one year return.

Over the past year, the STI rose gradually from around 4,500 to the 5,700 to 5,800 area, forming a clear upward trend. The latest level shown is 5,396.03, down 1.88 points or 0.03%. The index recently fell sharply from its elevated trading range and then consolidated near 5,400, indicating weaker short term momentum. Based on the approximate 5,700 to 5,800 peak area, the current pullback is about 5.3% to 7.0%. The index retains much of its earlier medium term gain and currently resembles a post rally correction and consolidation.

In the short term, investors should watch whether the index can regain a firm position near 5,400. The main resistance levels are 5,600 and the previous 5,700 to 5,800 high zone. If the pullback deepens, initial support lies near the previous breakout area around 5,200, followed by 5,000. The durability of any rebound will remain uncertain until the index reclaims 5,600.

WTI Crude Oil: Rebound Reclaims Key Area; Watch Resistance Near the Highs

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WTI is currently supported by falling inventories and supply risks. US commercial crude inventories fell by 1.892 million barrels in data released on October 28, compared with expectations for an increase of 100,000 barrels. The draw provided short term support for oil prices. In its October report, the EIA projected that global oil inventories would continue to decline by about 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Middle East supply and transportation constraints also continue to raise the risk premium. Smaller inventory buffers mean that new supply disruptions could have a greater impact on WTI prices and volatility.

Further upside remains constrained by demand pressure. The IEA expects global oil demand to decline by about 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026 as high fuel prices weigh on consumption. Recovering supply and easing transportation risks could also reduce the geopolitical premium. The key events ahead are the November 1 meeting of OPEC+ participants and changes in US inventories. Continued supply restrictions and further inventory draws would support WTI, while faster supply growth could increase correction pressure.

WTI has traded within a wide range over the past five days, with rebound momentum strengthening noticeably toward the end of the period. Prices previously made several failed attempts to advance. The latest move rose quickly from around $101.50, broke above the previous high and briefly exceeded $105.50 before pulling back to $104.570. This indicates stronger short term buying, although selling pressure remains after the breakout and the market has yet to confirm a sustained move above the previous high.

The first downside levels are $103.23 and $102.63, followed by the $101.46 to $101.52 area. Holding these levels after a pullback would be consistent with consolidation following an advance. A drop below $101.46 to $101.52 followed by a failed recovery would provide stronger evidence that sellers have regained control. The next levels would then be $100.91 and the $99.26 to $99.37 area. The previously discussed downside path toward $98 has yet to materialize and should be reassessed only after consecutive support failures.

On the monthly chart, WTI has rebounded sharply. The latest price shown is $103.85 per barrel, representing a monthly gain of 14.97%, with a monthly high of $104.99 and a low of $86.86. Prices are close to the monthly high, showing that upward momentum remains strong. However, WTI is approaching the descending trendline from the 2022 peak, and the longer term pattern of lower highs has yet to reverse. The key question is whether the monthly chart can break decisively above this trendline and remain there. A successful breakout would support further gains, while rejection would raise the risk of a post rally correction. If prices eventually enter a large and sustained decline, the first longer term support zone lies slightly below $45, followed by a second zone slightly below $35 if the first level fails.

Gold: Renewed Pressure After the Rebound; Watch Support at $3,974 to $3,984

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Gold remains constrained by interest rates in the short term. The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, emphasized that inflation remained elevated and noted that two members favored a rate hike. This hawkish stance increases the opportunity cost of holding gold and limits the scope for a rebound. If the US dollar and Treasury yields remain strong, overhead selling pressure may remain significant.

Allocation demand provides some support. Global gold ETFs recorded net inflows of about $10 billion in September and approximately $31 billion during the third quarter, showing that investors continued to add gold exposure during the pullback. However, these inflows do not guarantee a short term bottom. A sustainable recovery will still depend on whether interest rate pressure eases and whether new capital continues to absorb supply.

On the 30 minute chart, gold previously stabilized near the $3,974 to $3,984 support zone before breaking above its descending structure. It then recovered above $4,000 and the Ichimoku cloud, producing an interim repair. Prices briefly rose to $4,054.955, although resistance remains near $4,050 to $4,075. The next recovery target is $4,100, but the move remains insufficient to confirm a broader bullish reversal.

Over the past five days, gold initially rose before turning lower. It reached approximately $4,070 on October 29 and then declined steadily. Subsequent rebound highs moved lower, and the price fell below $4,000 again on October 30, returning to about $3,990. Gold lost 0.84% over the five day period. This indicates that the previous recovery has weakened significantly and shifts attention back to support.

The key support zone remains $3,974 to $3,984. If it holds and gold reclaims $4,000, the rebound could retest $4,020 to $4,030 and then $4,050 to $4,075. A further breakout would provide stronger support for the $4,100 target. A confirmed break below $3,974 followed by a failed recovery would invalidate the short term bullish repair and increase the risk of further declines.

Silver: Bearish Structure Persists; Watch the $49 to $50 Support Zone

$白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $100盎司白银2612(SIC2612)$ $100盎司白银主连 2612(SICmain)$

Silver’s rebound remains constrained by both interest rates and industrial demand expectations. The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 and emphasized that inflation remained elevated. High rates increase the opportunity cost of holding silver and limit investment demand. If the US dollar and Treasury yields remain strong, silver rebounds are likely to face continued pressure.

On industrial demand, the Silver Institute’s annual forecast published in April projected that industrial silver demand would decline by about 3% in 2026. The main factors were silver thrifting and material substitution in the photovoltaic industry, which weaken industrial support for prices. However, the full year supply deficit is still expected to reach about 46.3 million ounces, indicating that the market remains structurally tight. Short term prices may still be driven by fund flows and rate expectations, so the supply deficit alone does not confirm a bottom.

On the six hour chart, silver continues to form lower highs and lower lows and remains below its descending trendline and the main Ichimoku levels. The quoted price is $50.968, with no confirmed bullish reversal. Previous rebounds repeatedly encountered selling pressure near the trendline, indicating that overhead resistance remains strong. The $54.60 to $55.00 zone is the key structural recovery area. The bearish outlook should be reassessed only after a confirmed breakout and sustained move above this range.

Over the past five days, the October 28 rebound failed to continue, and prices resumed their decline. Selling accelerated from October 29 to October 30, pushing silver back toward $51.00. The metal lost 6.69% over the five day period. Several short term rebounds failed to reverse the decline, showing that sellers remain in control and sustained buying support is still lacking.

The main downside zone is $49.00 to $50.00. Stabilization in this area followed by higher short term lows could produce an interim rebound. A confirmed break followed by a failed recovery would increase downside risk. Initial resistance lies near $52.00 and $53.00, followed by the $54.60 to $55.00 zone. Short covering may emerge near support, although the rebound will not alter the trend unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Investors should continue to monitor breakouts and retests of key levels, together with the effects of interest rates, corporate earnings and supply and demand developments. Whether short term rebounds can continue still requires confirmation from price structure. Maintain position discipline, adjust views as market conditions change and avoid relying on previous expectations after key levels fail.