To The Moon

Key points:

Big Swings, No Direction, and a Fed Decision Looms Monday rallies, Thursday crashes, and a flat finish—markets can't find a floor or a ceiling.

CME FedWatch prices a 90% October pause but a 70%+ December hike.

With GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN all reporting, plus midterm elections and October jobs ahead, volatility is just getting started.

Last Week's Recap

1.Market Digest: Unsettled Market, 10-Year Yield Dips Below 5%, Tech Selloff Deepens, Oil Volatile

• Unsettled market — $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ posted fractional declines in a week of big daily moves and momentum shifts. Modest Monday/Wednesday rallies were offset by a Thursday retreat as tech pressure weighed on the broader market.

• Sub 5.00% yield — 10-year Treasury slipped below 5.00% Thursday for the first time in about a month, closing right at that threshold Friday. As recently as October 5, the yield peaked around 5.34%, the highest in 20+ years.

• Fed rate outlook — CME FedWatch: ~90% probability Fed holds steady on October 28. However, probability of a 25bp hike at the early December meeting rose above 70%, with 7% odds of a 50bp increase.

• Top-heavy earnings — The Magnificent Seven projected to post average Q3 growth of 33.2%, per FactSet, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies were projected at 27.7%—still disproportionate but less so than in recent quarters.

• Oil volatility — Crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2612(CLmain)$ traded in a wide range: nearly $104 Monday, below $98 Wednesday, bouncing back above $103 Friday. Cumulative gain over the past two weeks around 12%.

• NASDAQ sell-off — Heavy tech selling Thursday sent NASDAQ to its biggest daily decline since June, finishing 2.6% lower for the week. The index was about 6.0% below its record high set just two and a half weeks earlier.

• Small and value lead — Small-cap benchmark rose 2.0% while large-cap fell 0.4%. Value finished 0.7% higher while growth was 1.5% lower.

• Busy week ahead — Fed policy meeting concludes Wednesday; Q3 GDP initial estimate and September PCE inflation data due Thursday.

2.US Market – SPX dips 0.57% as Google collapse and tech weakness offset pharma and Tesla strength

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.57% and closed at 7,580.07, as a brutal selloff in Alphabet and weakness in semiconductor and social media names overwhelmed strength in pharma, Tesla, and retail.

Industry leaders: Marine Ports & Services (+34.21%) surged on global trade recovery and port congestion premiums. Cruise Concept (+11.14%) advanced on holiday travel demand. EV Charger (+9.83%) tracked EV infrastructure spending, while Weight Loss Drugs (+8.77%) benefited from GLP-1 demand resilience.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ +11.31% — The pharmaceutical heavyweight surged on GLP-1 demand resilience and Mounjaro/Zepbound manufacturing scale-up progress.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ +7.41% — The EV maker bounced back on robotaxi optimism and delivery stabilization hopes.

• $SK hynix(SKHY)$ +8.9% — The RF semiconductor specialist rallied on 5G and AI edge-computing demand recovery.

• $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ +3.02% — The retail giant advanced on defensive positioning and resilient consumer staples demand.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ -3% — The AI chip leader declined on profit-taking and rotation out of high-beta AI names.

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ -3.08% — The cloud leader fell on AWS growth deceleration worries.

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ -4.3% — The social-media giant declined on ad-spending slowdown concerns.

• $SpaceX(SPCX)$ -8.66% — The space and AI conglomerate extended its post-IPO decline on thin float volatility and xAI merger debt concerns.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ -12.61% — The search and cloud giant was the week's worst mega-cap performer, collapsing on AI search monetization fears, ad revenue softness, and concerns over regulatory scrutiny on its AI products.

3.Hong Kong Market – HSI edges up 0.87% as energy and banks lift the index; tech lags

$HSI(HSI)$ : The Hang Seng Index gained 0.87%, as a powerful rally in energy majors and Chinese banks offset weakness in tech and battery names. The index held firm as investors rotated into high-dividend-yield commodity and financial plays.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ declined 3.02% and closed at 3,754.9, dragged lower by CATL and the broader EV supply chain.

Industry leaders: Home Improvement Retail (+14.79%) surged on China property-policy easing speculation and seasonal construction demand. Industrial REITs (+14.61%) advanced on logistics and data-centre property recovery. Integrated Oil & Gas (+11.44%) tracked firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline.

9 Popular Stocks:

• $PETROCHINA(00857)$ +12.65% — The upstream energy major surged on firm Brent crude, OPEC+ supply discipline, and resilient China refinery runs.

• $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ +7.42% — The coal and power giant advanced on domestic thermal coal demand and its integrated energy model offering defensive yield.

• $CNOOC(00883)$ +6.83% — The offshore oil specialist tracked crude higher on production growth momentum.

• $CM BANK(03968)$ +6.03% — The retail bank rose on improving wealth-management fee income and asset quality.

• $ICBC(01398)$ +9.05% — Led the banking sector higher on deeply discounted valuation and income-investor demand.

• $CHINA MOBILE(00941)$ +5.07% — Advanced on state-owned lender rotation and NIM stabilization hopes.

• $CHINA MOBILE(00941)$ +3.76% — The telecom incumbent edged up on defensive yield positioning and AI infrastructure momentum.

• $BANK OF CHINA(03988)$ +3.19% — Tracked the banking-sector rally on high-dividend attraction.

• $CATL(03750)$ -5.04% — The battery giant declined on lithium oversupply fears and EU tariff escalation concerns.

4.Singapore Market – STI slips 0.84% as resource and tech SDRs drag; energy and telecom offer refuge

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ declined 0.84%, as weakness in commodities, shipbuilding and ASEAN tech SDRs offset strength in PetroChina, China Mobile and local banks. The index retreated from the 5,400 level amid broad-based risk-off sentiment.

Top Decline Sectors: Aluminum (-19.53%) led the declines on speculative supply-constraint profit-taking. Electronic Components (-14.44%) tumbled on AI hardware margin concerns, while Textiles (-12.00%) faced ASEAN manufacturing reshoring headwinds.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $PetroCN HK SDR 1to2(HPCD.SI)$ +11.75% — The oil major's SDR surged on firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline, offering a defensive haven amid the broader SDR rout.

• $CN Mobile HK SDR 5to1(HCMD.SI)$ +3.57% — The telecom giant's SDR advanced on defensive yield positioning and AI infrastructure momentum; the company reported H1 2026 operating revenue of CNY 538 billion with free cash flow up 111.6% YoY.

• $Bank of CN HK SDR 1to1(HBND.SI)$ +3.09% — The Chinese state-owned bank's SDR rose on high-dividend-yield attraction and defensive rotation into financials.

• $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ +1% — The banking heavyweight eked out a gain on resilient regional credit demand.

• $HongkongLand USD(H78.SI)$ +1.22% — The prime commercial property landlord edged up on Hong Kong office leasing stabilization hopes.

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ -6.76% — The Chinese shipbuilder pulled back on profit-taking after its recent defense-spending rally.

• $Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$ -9.88% — The agribusiness giant slumped on consumer staples rotation and margin pressure concerns.

• $HSBC HK SDR 5to1(HSHD.SI)$ -4.31% — The UK banking giant's SDR declined on Asian lending margin pressure.

• $TLKM ID SDR 1to5(ITKD.SI)$ -10.83% — The Indonesian telecom giant's SDR collapsed on regional emerging-market outflows.

• $Delta TH SDR 1to1(TDED.SI)$ -14.44% — The Thai power-electronics SDR was the week's worst performer, tumbling on profit-taking after its AI data-center rally; the Bangkok-listed parent fell from 272 THB in early October to 234 THB by late October.

5.Australian Market – XJO gains 1.28% as miners and banks lift the index to 8,908

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ gained 1.28% to 8,908.1 over the week, as strength in BHP, banks, and Goodman Group offset a brutal selloff in consumer staples. The index held above the 8,850 level as investors rotated into resources and financials.

Industry leaders: Oil & Gas Drilling (+16.67%) surged on offshore rig utilization and energy capex recovery. Data Center REITs (+15.14%) advanced on AI infrastructure demand and accretive asset sales. Silver (+13.09%) tracked precious-metals safe-haven demand.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $GOODMAN GROUP(GMG.AU)$ +6.85% — The industrial and data-centre property giant surged on AI-driven logistics demand and new development starts. The stock closed at A$27.00 on 30 October, with a market cap of A$54.47B.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ +4.56% — The diversified miner advanced on copper and iron ore price stabilization. The stock traded at A$86.74 as of mid-October, with a P/E of 24.4x — 191% above its 5-year average of 8.4x.

• $Macquarie(MQG.AU)$ +2.19% — The investment bank and asset manager rose on commodity-trading profits and green-infrastructure realisations.

• $ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(ANZ.AU)$ +1.92% — The Melbourne-based lender gained on institutional-banking resilience.

• $CSL LIMITED(CSL.AU)$ +2.05% — The biotech heavyweight advanced on plasma-collection volume recovery.

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ +1.66% — The banking heavyweight edged up on defensive positioning.

• $WOOLWORTHS GROUP LTD(WOW.AU)$ -3.66% — The supermarket giant declined on margin pressure concerns. September quarter sales were AUD 19.4 billion, up 5% YoY.

• $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ -4.48% — The diversified retail conglomerate slumped on Bunnings and Kmart margin scrutiny. The stock closed at A$76.69 on 31 October, down 9.25% YTD.

• $COLES GROUP LTD(COL.AU)$ -11.77% — The supermarket rival was the week's worst large-cap performer, collapsing on earnings disappointment and margin compression fears.

The Week Ahead: November 2-6

Macro Events in Focus

Tuesday, Nov 4

• U.S. Midterm Elections — American voters head to the polls for the midterm elections, with control of Congress at stake. The outcome could shape the legislative agenda on taxes, regulation, and fiscal policy heading into 2027. Markets may see elevated volatility as results trickle in, particularly in sectors sensitive to policy shifts (healthcare, energy, financials, and tech).

Friday, Nov 7

• October Jobs Report (BLS) — The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Following September's shockingly weak +29,000 print, all eyes are on whether the labor market rebounded or continued to cool. The unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation will be critical inputs for the Fed's December policy calculus.

Earnings in Focus

Monday, Nov 3

Pre-market:

• $Tempus AI(TEM)$ — AI-powered precision medicine and genomic testing adoption; path to profitability.

• $Estee Lauder(EL)$ — China travel retail recovery, prestige beauty demand, and inventory normalization.

• $Tower Semiconductor(TSEM)$ — Analog/mixed-signal foundry demand, RF and power trends.

After-hours:

• $Apple(AAPL)$ — iPhone 16 cycle momentum, Services revenue growth, Apple Intelligence rollout trajectory, and China market performance.

• $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ — Government and commercial AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) demand, U.S. defense spending, and margin expansion.

• $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ — Streaming ad revenue recovery, account growth, and platform monetization.

• $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ — Southeast Asia mobility and delivery recovery, fintech attach, and path to sustained profitability.

• $ON Semiconductor(ON)$ — Automotive silicon carbide (SiC) demand, industrial inventory digestion.

Tuesday, Nov 4

Pre-market:

• $Shopify(SHOP)$ — GMV growth, logistics and payments attach rates, and AI commerce tools adoption.

• $Pfizer(PFE)$ — Oncology pipeline progress, COVID franchise normalization, and cost restructuring.

• $Marathon Petroleum(MPC)$ — Refining margins, renewable fuels, and midstream cash generation.

• $BioNTech SE(BNTX)$ — mRNA pipeline beyond COVID, including oncology candidates.

After-hours:

• $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ — Data center GPU (MI300 series) momentum, AI revenue contribution, and client/server CPU share trends.

• $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ — AI server demand, liquid cooling adoption, and supply chain execution.

• $Arista Networks(ANET)$ — Cloud and enterprise networking demand, AI backend infrastructure traction.

• $Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$ — Korean e-commerce growth, Rocket Delivery profitability, and international expansion.

Also reporting: $American International Group Inc(AIG)$ , $Yum(YUM)$ (from overview)

Wednesday, Nov 5

Pre-market:

• $McDonald's(MCD)$ — U.S. traffic and value menu performance, international growth (China), and franchisee health.

• $Uber(UBER)$ — Mobility vs. Delivery mix, freight segment turnaround, and autonomous vehicle partnerships.

• $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ — Ozempic / Wegovy demand trajectory, manufacturing capacity scaling, and competitive dynamics.

• $The Kraft Heinz Company(KHC)$ — Pricing elasticity, volume trends, and cost savings execution.

• $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ — Stablecoin (USDC) circulation growth, regulatory developments, and reserve yield.

After-hours:

• $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ — Snapdragon for AI PCs, automotive pipeline, and handset market outlook.

• $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ — Royalty and licensing growth, AI datacenter CPU adoption, and smartphone recovery.

• $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ — Ad platform recovery, ARPU trends, and subscription (Snapchat+) growth.

• $Coherent(COHR)$ — Datacom and telecom optical components, AI-driven 800G/1.6T demand.

Also reporting: $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ , $CVS Health(CVS)$ , $Datadog(DDOG)$ , $Cencora Inc.(COR)$ (from overview)

Thursday, Nov 6

Pre-market:

• $ConocoPhillips(COP)$ — Production volumes, capital returns, and Permian / Montney execution.

• $Toyota(TM)$ — Hybrid demand resilience, EV strategy, and North American production.

• $Cummins(CMI)$ — Engine and power systems demand, hydrogen and alternative fuel progress.

• $Unity Software Inc.(U)$ — Gaming engine monetization, Create vs. Grow segment performance.

After-hours:

• $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ — Nights booked growth, ADR trends, and cross-border travel recovery.

• $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ — Rideshare market share, EBITDA profitability, and autonomous partnerships.

• $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ — Zero Trust security adoption, Workers platform growth, and AI edge computing.

• $Lumentum(LITE)$ — Optical communications for AI datacenters, 3D sensing.

• $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ — Bitcoin mining operations, energy strategy, and HPC/datacenter pivot.

Also reporting: $Sony(SONY)$ , $Ralph Lauren(RL)$ , $Tapestry Inc.(TPR)$ , $Verisk Analytics(VRSK)$ , $Solventum(SOLV)$ , $Viatris Inc.(VTRS)$ (from overview)

Friday, Nov 7

Pre-market:

• $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ — RSV vaccine launch progress, flu/COVID combo pipeline, and cash runway.

• $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ — Power generation and retail electricity, nuclear renaissance positioning.

• $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ — Advanced nuclear SMR development and regulatory milestones.

• $TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$ — Bitcoin mining, zero-carbon energy strategy.

After-hours:

• $Hawaiian(HE)$ — Utility operations, wildfire liability overhang, and rate case progress.