$ADYEN Drops 13% as Margin Guidance Is Cut, Is the Sell-Off an Opportunity?
$Adyen N.V.(ADYEY)$ Investment Summary! 🚀
$ADYEN fell 13% on Oct 28 after cutting its 2026 EBITDA margin guide to ~50% from 52% and dropping its 2028 target.
🐂 Bull Case:
- Cross Sell: Merchants that start with online payments can add in-store and platform payments on the same system.
- LATAM APAC: Latin America and Asia Pacific are newer markets for Adyen, with room to win more merchants.
- New Products: Adyen has a strong R&D team that keeps building new products.
- Unified Commerce: In-store and online payments on one platform grew 29% Y/Y in Q3.
💳 Pillars (Q3 2026):
- Digital: €387M, +16% Y/Y, 52% of revenue
- Unified Commerce: €251M, +29% Y/Y, 34% of revenue
- Platforms: €100M, +46% Y/Y, 14% of revenue
- Processed Volume: €451B, +30% Y/Y
🏦 Balance Sheet:
- Cash: €12.4B
- LTM FCF: €1.16B, 4.4% FCF yield
- FCF Conversion: 86% of EBITDA
- 2026 Capex Guide: ~7% of revenue, up from 5%
🔮 Analyst Estimates:
- 2028 Revenue: €4.2B, vs €2.4B in 2025
- 2028 EBITDA: €2.3B, 55% margin
- 2028 EPS: €57.65, vs €33.61 in 2025
🎯 Valuation:
- 2026 P/E: 21.5x
- 2028 P/E: 14.3x
- Low Price Target €900: 8% discount
- Consensus Price Target €1,288: 36% discount
- High Price Target €1,750: 53% discount
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