To The Moon

DEMOCRATS WIN THE HOUSE AND SENATE.

AI stocks are crashing. Here are 10 stocks positioned to benefit from a Democratic Congress:

1. $First Solar(FSLR)$

First Solar's 2026 guidance assumes $2.07B to $2.19B of 45X manufacturing credits, which survived last year's tax bill. Once the new Congress is seated in January, a Democratic House can block any further cuts. It has a 44 GW backlog worth about $13.5B and just announced a $500M buyback.

2. $Sunrun(RUN)$

Sunrun owns the rooftop systems it leases, so its economics run on the 48E investment tax credit, which averaged 44% in its Q2 subscriber value. Under current law storage keeps that credit through 2033, while solar keeps it through 2027, or 2030 for projects Sunrun has safe-harbored. Democrats want the wind and solar credits restored, and Sunrun reports Q3 after the close today.

3. $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$

Enphase is heavily exposed to the 25D homeowner solar credit that ended last year, and its CEO said the expiration removed a meaningful portion of the cash and loan market. Revenue fell 29% from a year ago to $293M last quarter with US sell-through down 35%, so a credit restoration would land on a business with a lot of ground to make up.

4. $NextEra(NEE)$

NextEra has a renewables and storage backlog of nearly 36.7 GW and grew adjusted EPS 9.7% last quarter. S&P expects tax credits to support its cash flow through about 2030 under current law, and starting in January a Democratic Congress can block any further rollback.

5. $Centene(CNC)$

Centene is the largest publicly traded ACA marketplace insurer, and its marketplace membership fell 42% to 3.4M after the enhanced subsidies expired. Medicaid is another 53% of its premium and service revenue. House Democrats plan to move on the ACA credits and the Medicaid cuts right out of the gate, and Centene just raised 2026 EPS guidance to above $5.20.

6. $Molina Healthcare(MOH)$

Medicaid is 78% of Molina's premium revenue, making it the purest Medicaid play among insurers. Hakeem Jeffries told reporters last month that House Democrats will be united around reversing the Medicaid cuts, and states must start work requirements by January 1. Molina's early 2027 building blocks add up to more than $9.50 of EPS.

7. $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$

Oscar's members are all in ACA individual market plans, and 93% of its 2025 premiums were paid directly by CMS through federal premium tax credits. It grew members 46% year over year to 2.96M as of June 30 while Oscar says the overall ACA market shrank 12%, and it raised 2026 operating earnings guidance to $500M to $700M. Oscar reports Q3 tomorrow morning.

8. $Hca Healthcare Inc(HCA)$

Uninsured patients rose to 10.5% of HCA's equivalent admissions last quarter from 8.5% a year earlier as people who lost exchange coverage went uninsured. Jefferies sees the most election-related upside in hospital stocks, since delaying the Medicaid cuts through next year's debt-limit talks looks more likely than restoring the subsidies.

9. $Universal Health(UHS)$

Medicaid and managed Medicaid were 32% of Universal Health's Q2 revenue, and its roughly $1.5B a year of state supplemental payments start getting cut with states' 2028 fiscal years under last year's tax bill. Acute care exchange volumes fell 17% last quarter after the subsidies expired, so either a subsidy deal or a delay to the cuts helps. It has bought back $690M of stock this year.

10. $D.R. Horton(DHI)$

63% of the buyers D.R. Horton's mortgage arm financed last quarter were first-time buyers. Bloomberg Tax expects housing tax cuts to bring both parties to the negotiating table next year, and the 10-year yield fell this morning after the election results. D.R. Horton plans about $3B of buybacks in fiscal 2027.