To The Moon

① What Happened Today

AI money rotation is getting stronger. Semis are under pressure, and cloud and software stocks are splitting.

AI infrastructure risk is rising: Some US states are raising restrictions on data center construction. The market is starting to worry about project delays, slower capex, and even an impact on 2028 semiconductor profit expectations. IREN and NBIS project progress is being questioned, but this can't yet be treated as companies confirming order cancellations.

Money is moving toward cash flow: The market is starting to prefer large cloud companies with diversified businesses and steadier profits, while semis and the data center supply chain stay under pressure. This doesn't mean AI demand is gone — it means the market is rethinking who can actually make money.

Earnings are clearly split:

U: Results and guidance beat big, up about 15% premarket. Ad AI models drove growth.

APP: Gaming ad business grew nearly 50%. Better results may ease worries about losing market share.

ARM: Royalty revenue missed. Even with a higher AI CPU revenue outlook, it fell about 8% premarket.

HUBS: Cut its growth guidance. The risk that AI changes how software is bought is now showing up in results.

② What Money Is Betting On / Protecting Against

[Buyers] Concentrated Put buying in semis, small caps, and financials, guarding against tech pullback spreading.

MRVL | 12/18 165 Put buy to open$MRVL 20261218 165.0 PUT$ 
5,743 contracts total | about $9.0176M traded | stock at $163.57–165.39 when traded
Two trades less than a minute apart, concentrated near-the-money Put buying. Shows money actively building downside positions, and may also include hedging demand.

XLF | 03/19 60 Put buy to open$XLF 20270319 60.0 PUT$ 
20,000 contracts | $5.42M traded | stock $58.82
A larger bearish position in financials. Watch whether the tech pullback starts affecting financial stocks more.

IWM | 11/20 272 Put buy to open$IWM 20261120 272.0 PUT$ 
8,000 contracts | $936K traded | stock $285.93
Betting on or hedging short-term small-cap downside. $272 is the contract's key strike, not confirmed support.

[Sellers] Concentrated selling of tech Calls, leaning toward capping upside short term rather than chasing a rally.

QQQ | 11/06 705 Call sell to open$QQQ 20261106 705.0 CALL$ 
23,000 contracts | $9.315M traded | stock $698.40
Short-term sellers bet price won't go much above $705, or are hedging existing positions by selling Calls. Expires Friday, so time decay is fast, but a break above the strike can raise risk.

AMZN | 02/19 315 Call sell to open$AMZN 20270219 315.0 CALL$ 
6,000 contracts | $4.02M traded | stock $270.95
Sellers are building a position at a farther upside strike, showing caution about a big short- to medium-term rally. Could also be a covered strategy.

INTC | 06/17 85 Call sell to open$INTC 20270617 85.0 CALL$ 
20,000 contracts | $9M traded | stock $58.37
A large long-dated Call sale shows some money is willing to sell high-strike upside exposure. But don't directly conclude $85 is stock resistance.

③ What to Watch for Related Tickers

SMH | Be careful buying the semi dip
On 10/30, two Put combos worth tracking appeared:

12/18: Buy 450 Put$SMH 20261218 450.0 PUT$ , sell 400 Put$SMH 20261218 400.0 PUT$ , about 11,500 contracts each, net premium about $6.10/share.

03/19: Buy 450 Put$SMH 20270319 450.0 PUT$ , sell 400 Put$SMH 20270319 400.0 PUT$ , 7,825 contracts each, net premium about $11.50/share.

If both are new bear Put spreads, it means money is willing to pay premium to guard against semis falling further.

Trading watch: $450 is the common high strike in both combos; $400 is the low strike. These are not technical support. With the latest MRVL bearish big order, semis haven't shown clear evidence of bottoming. Even near the lower end of the expected move, don't directly treat it as a Sell Put opportunity.

**QQQ | $705 is the short-term gate**
705 Call selling for 11/06 expiry is concentrated. Short term, watch whether the stock can get back above $700–705. If it stays under pressure, the tech bounce may still be mostly repair. If it breaks and holds above, reassess the short-term bearish view.

U, APP | Can they attract money after earnings?
Both companies' better results provide basic support, but good earnings don't mean the stock must keep rising. Watch whether they hold gains after the open and whether volume supports continuation.

④ What to Watch Before the Open Today

Semis SMH, MRVL, ARM: Watch whether selling pressure continues, especially whether they can hold after a bounce — don't judge a bottom just because the drop was big.

Tech index QQQ: Watch the battle around $700–705 to judge whether the big tech bounce can spread to semis.

Software and ads U, APP, HUBS: Earnings are widening the gap between stocks. Money may care more about real profit than pure AI hype.

Financials and small caps XLF, IWM: Track whether Put buying keeps rising. Watch for tech downside risk spreading to other sectors.

One-Line Read

The market isn't disbelieving AI. It's starting to doubt who can earn the profits people expect. Bearish semi positions are still worth watching. Before buying the dip, first look for a bottom. If selling Puts, guard against a breakdown.

Risk note: The big orders above are historical trade records and may involve hedges or multi-leg combos. They don't directly represent one-way institutional forecasts. Option strikes are not technical support or resistance. This is for market observation and options learning only, not investment advice.