To The Moon

Last night, I hosted a futures livestream on Tiger Brokers covering the outlook for equity indexes and gold following the US midterm elections. The session compared the Nasdaq with the dot-com bubble, reviewed key support levels in major indexes, explored trading opportunities in Hong Kong and mainland technology shares, and discussed options strategies for a range-bound gold market. If you missed the livestream, you can watch the course replay here >>

半導體板塊會否重演？科網泡沫時期走勢股指破位後的關鍵支撐在哪？

Next, I will categorize and summarize the course’s most important information and trading insights. This should help investors who did not have time to attend the class quickly understand my current market views. First, a brief personal introduction:

The core views from this session are as follows:

Macro Outlook Following the Midterm Elections

The election result was broadly consistent with previous polls and betting odds, while the Democrats performed in line with general expectations. There were no major surprises. Congress and the president will likely represent opposing parties, creating stronger checks and balances. This should reduce policy efficiency while improving market predictability and lowering volatility. Any attempt by Trump to force through controversial measures would likely trigger impeachment efforts from Democrats. Even an unsuccessful impeachment attempt would weaken his political position, reducing the likelihood of extreme policy disruptions.

Historical market data point to a relatively constructive medium to long term outlook following the midterm elections. Markets often experience volatility and corrections during the two quarters before the midterms. After the election, they tend to enter a favorable period, with the fourth quarter and the following two quarters generally supporting further gains.

However, I do not recommend taking an aggressively bearish view. Market news remains broadly stable, and historical patterns have yet to break down. The midterm elections are no longer the market’s primary driver. Attention should now shift toward the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes and changes in the corresponding economic data.

Equity Index Trading Opportunities

The Nasdaq is currently the market’s main bellwether. Since the rise of the AI sector, investor attention has shifted toward technology stocks, making the Nasdaq a more important index to follow than the S&P 500. The Nasdaq is also fundamentally healthier than during the 2000 dot-com bubble. Although its constituents have borrowed heavily to invest in AI, their core businesses generate stable revenue that can cover interest expenses. This limits the risk of a severe bubble.

The Nasdaq’s 20 month moving average has also provided reliable long term support. The index remains some distance above this level, so a bear market should not be assumed unless the support is broken.

$納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指數主連 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2612(MNQmain)$

In the short term, the Nasdaq has moved close to the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, creating the potential for a rebound or an interim reversal of the decline. Investors could use a small Nasdaq futures position to capture a recovery. Futures offer more stable leverage, much lower tracking error than leveraged ETFs and greater capital efficiency.

$納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $標普500ETF(SPY)$ $羅素1000指數ETF-iShares(IWB)$

Historical data from the past decade show that the Hang Seng Index has often delivered relatively strong gains during the three to four months following US midterm elections. Only a few periods produced high-level consolidation instead. Mainland technology and innovation sectors have already undergone substantial corrections. Domestic market support policies are also in place, while many highly leveraged accounts were previously liquidated during the decline. This has released much of the selling pressure and supports a more constructive outlook.

$恆生指數(HSI)$ $恆生指數主連 2611(HSImain)$ $恆生指數ETF南方(513600)$ $恆生ETF(159920)$ $恆生科技指數(HSTECH)$ $恆生科技指數主連 2611(HTImain)$ $恆生香港股票(03444)$

 $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $白銀主連 2612(SImain)$ $迷你白銀主連 2612(QImain)$ $2倍做多白銀ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$

Gold previously broke below the critical $4,000 level as the market priced in a faster Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, including further hikes in December and the first quarter of next year. Gold currently lacks the conditions for a sustained one-way move and is likely to remain range bound until the Federal Reserve provides a clearer policy signal.

If gold declines further, the $3,300 to $3,500 range will provide important support. Investors could sell gold puts on a rolling basis in this zone, taking delivery at lower prices if gold falls or collecting option premiums if it does not. A rapid recovery above $4,000 would indicate a false technical breakdown. Gold would likely remain range bound, allowing investors to continue participating through option selling strategies.

More detailed futures strategies and practical trading experience will be released later on the Tiger Brokers platform. Investors are encouraged to follow the upcoming content.

Key Chapter Overview

08:46 Nasdaq Outlook and Equity Index Futures Opportunities

This chapter focuses on trading opportunities in equity indexes, particularly the Nasdaq. It explains why the Nasdaq is now the market’s primary focus and why its fundamentals are much stronger than during the 2000 dot-com bubble. The 20 month moving average provides important support, while the index’s position near the lower weekly Bollinger Band creates a potential rebound opportunity.

The suggested approach is to use a small Nasdaq futures position to capture the rebound. Compared with ETFs, futures offer lower tracking error and more stable leverage. The broader fourth quarter outlook remains relatively constructive.

19:56 Hong Kong and Mainland Technology Markets After the US Midterms

This chapter reviews the recent performance of major US indexes, the STAR Market and the Hang Seng Tech Index. Historical data show that Hong Kong equities have generally performed well for three to four months following US midterm elections.

Mainland authorities have also introduced several market support measures. Many leveraged accounts were forced to liquidate during the previous declines in technology and growth shares, significantly reducing subsequent selling pressure. The outlook for Hong Kong and mainland technology sectors is therefore relatively constructive, with related trading opportunities worth monitoring.

24:07 Gold Outlook and Trading Strategies

This chapter explains that gold’s previous break below $4,000 reflected expectations for a faster Federal Reserve rate hike cycle. Gold is now likely to remain range bound, with the next major support zone between $3,300 and $3,500.

With appropriate risk controls, investors could sell put options to accumulate exposure at lower prices while earning option premiums. A sustained move above $4,000 in November would indicate that the previous breakdown was false. The session concludes by noting that a futures trading handbook containing related strategies and practical experience will soon be released on the Tiger Brokers platform.