To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$  

Circle delivered what looked like excellent earnings.

Revenue and reserve income:

$865 MILLION.

Up:

17% YoY.

Adjusted EBITDA:

$317 MILLION.

Up:

85%.

USDC transaction volume:

$13.9 TRILLION.

Up:

49%.

Yet CRCL closed November 6 at:

$67.88.

After hours:

$67.40.

And here's something interesting.

ARK Invest has been accumulating shares during the weakness.

Its holdings tracker indicates a net increase of approximately:

78,678 CRCL SHARES

across its funds on November 6.

So why does CRCL keep struggling?

For shareholders who have watched their positions turn increasingly red, especially after encouraging earnings, I understand the frustration.

But I don't want to manufacture optimism.

I think the market is telling us something important.

And the number behind it is:

$182 MILLION.

🔥 THE $182M EARNINGS CONTRADICTION

Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of:

$865M.

But approximately:

$182M

came from recognition of its ARC token presale.

Take that out.

And the remaining revenue and reserve income was approximately:

$683M.

A year ago?

Approximately:

$740M.

That represents a decline of around:

8% YoY.

Now THAT explains why the earnings beat hasn't impressed everyone.

Circle's growing ecosystem is real.

But its traditional reserve-driven revenue engine is still under pressure.

Reserve income declined:

8%.

The reserve return rate fell:

61 basis points.

And USDC circulation at quarter-end was:

$73.9B.

Essentially:

FLAT YEAR-ON-YEAR.

So the question isn't whether Circle is building a successful stablecoin network.

It is.

The question is:

CAN THAT NETWORK GENERATE RECURRING PROFIT GROWTH WITHOUT RELYING ON LARGE TOKEN-RELATED REVENUE CONTRIBUTIONS?

I think Wall Street wants that proof.

And until it gets it, headline earnings beats alone may not be enough.

🧠 BUT HERE'S WHY I HAVEN'T GIVEN UP ON CIRCLE

There are genuine positives.

Circle Payments Network reached approximately:

$41.3B

in annualised payment volume.

Arc is now on public mainnet.

Visa is expanding commercial stablecoin settlement capabilities.

Samsung Wallet supports USDC-linked cross-border transfers.

Binance announced a $100M strategic equity investment and an expanded partnership.

And Circle's planned acquisition of Tazapay could deepen its international payment infrastructure.

That matters because Circle is trying to move beyond:

USDC RESERVES → INTEREST INCOME

toward:

PAYMENTS → TRANSACTION SERVICES → NETWORK ECONOMICS.

That could eventually justify a different valuation.

But these initiatives need time to mature.

The key issue is whether they produce repeatable earnings.

Not just impressive announcements.

🔥 THE SMART-MONEY SIGNAL IS MIXED

Now here's where the additional information becomes useful.

ARK Invest has been adding CRCL exposure.

A tracker comparing ARK's daily holdings indicates approximately:

78,678 additional CRCL shares on November 6.

That suggests at least one major growth-oriented institutional investor remains willing to hold or increase exposure despite the selloff.

Encouraging?

Yes.

Proof of a bottom?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

ARK has also made adjustments across its funds, and a single day's activity cannot establish a market-wide accumulation trend.

Meanwhile, analysts are lowering expectations.

Needham: $134 → $103

JPMorgan: $110 → $100

Both retained positive ratings.

But note what has changed.

TARGETS ARE COMING DOWN EVEN WHEN RATINGS REMAIN POSITIVE.

This tells me analysts may still believe in Circle's longer-term opportunity while becoming less confident about the pace of near-term earnings.

And that can keep a stock under pressure.

🚨 WHAT ABOUT THE $1.15M BEARISH OPTIONS TRADE?

The reported bear call spread is worth noting.

It suggests a trader may be positioning for limited upside across the relevant expirations.

But one options structure doesn't prove that sophisticated investors collectively expect a crash.

It may also be part of a hedge or a larger portfolio strategy.

So I would treat it as:

A CAUTIONARY SENTIMENT SIGNAL.

Not a price prediction.

And the wider crypto environment remains difficult.

Bitcoin weakness, security-related headlines and risk reduction across fintech stocks can all affect CRCL's valuation.

Circle also remains exposed to interest-rate expectations.

Lower rates may help growth-stock sentiment but reduce reserve yields.

Higher rates may support reserve income but pressure valuations.

CRCL IS NOT A SIMPLE BITCOIN PROXY.

That distinction matters.

📍 THE $65 SUPPORT BATTLE

Let's look at the actual price action.

November 4 close:

$76.12.

November 5 close:

$69.48.

November 6 close:

$67.88.

But here's something that deserves attention.

CRCL briefly reached:

$64.81 ON NOVEMBER 5.

Then recovered.

On November 6, it tested approximately:

$65.70.

And recovered again.

That suggests buyers have been willing to step in around:

$65-$66.

However, I wouldn't call that a confirmed bottom.

Why?

Because CRCL has already traded below $65.

And repeated tests of support can eventually weaken it.

The next question is whether CRCL can establish a higher low and sustain buying above its immediate resistance.

For me, that means:

$69.50-$72.

That is where the recovery becomes more interesting.

🔮 MY CRCL PREDICTION: 9-13 NOVEMBER

These are my subjective probabilities for the next trading week.

🟢 BULL CASE: 30%

CRCL defends the $65-$67 region.

ARK's accumulation is accompanied by stronger buying from other investors.

Crypto sentiment stabilises.

Buyers reclaim:

$69.50-$72.

Potential recovery:

$75-$78.

Could CRCL reach $80?

Yes, but I consider that a stretch outcome rather than my base case.

🟡 BASE CASE: 50%

MY MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

Earnings uncertainty continues.

Buyers attempt rebounds, but sellers emerge near resistance.

The stock spends much of the week consolidating between:

$65-$72.

I expect a volatile, uneven recovery attempt.

Not a clean straight-line rally.

🔴 BEAR CASE: 20%

The $65 region fails to hold.

Macro sentiment weakens further.

Analyst revisions and crypto selling continue weighing on the shares.

Potential downside:

$62-$65.

If $62 breaks decisively, $60 becomes the next psychological level I would assess.

🎯 MY TRADING MAP

$65-$67: Immediate stabilisation zone.

$69.50-$72: First meaningful recovery confirmation.

$72-$75: Upside recovery zone.

$75-$78: Bull-case target if momentum strengthens.

$83: More significant overhead resistance, not my next-week base target.

$62-$65: Downside risk if support fails.

For existing shareholders, I wouldn't automatically add simply because the stock is lower than our purchase price.

Averaging down can improve cost basis.

But it also increases exposure to a stock whose trend remains weak.

I would rather see a higher low or a sustained reclaim of $72 before becoming more aggressive.

🔥 THE MACRO EVENTS I AM WATCHING

Tuesday, November 10:

US CPI.

Friday, November 13:

US PPI.

A softer inflation print could improve risk appetite.

But expectations for lower rates could simultaneously pressure Circle's reserve income.

That makes the market's actual reaction particularly important.

I will also watch Bitcoin, stablecoin regulatory developments, USDC circulation and whether CRCL begins outperforming other crypto-sensitive stocks.

🧠 MY CALL: ARK IS BUYING, BUT THE MARKET HASN'T CONFIRMED THE BOTTOM

I remain constructive about Circle's long-term role in digital finance.

But I think the market is right to ask tougher questions about recurring earnings.

The $182M ARC contribution makes Q3's headline growth less straightforward.

The slower USDC circulation growth deserves attention.

And the analyst target cuts explain why even bullish observers are becoming more cautious.

ARK buying is encouraging.

But the price action matters more.

For next week, my preferred scenario remains:

$65-$72.

With a meaningful recovery toward:

$75-$78

possible if buyers reclaim $72 and crypto sentiment improves.

Below $65?

I become more defensive.

Because I don't want to confuse a stock that has fallen a lot with one that has finished falling.

To those holding CRCL through these difficult sessions, I hope we get a recovery worth celebrating.

But I would rather be right about the risk than offer a comforting forecast without evidence.

THE BUSINESS HAS POTENTIAL.

THE STOCK STILL NEEDS CONFIRMATION.

And my most important question for next week isn't whether CRCL can touch $80.

It is:

CAN CRCL RECLAIM $72 AND ACTUALLY HOLD IT?

That would be the first sign that buyers are beginning to regain control.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

Are you expecting a rebound toward $75 next week, or another test of $65?

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