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CITIC: Liquidity in the A-share market is tightening, and these industries have layout opportunities

市场流动性趋紧，整体大幅修正风险很低，结构再平衡提前开启。

CITIC: Liquidity in the A-share market is tightening, and these industries have layout opportunities

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":800112666,"tweetId":"800112666","gmtCreate":1627286185455,"gmtModify":1703486727076,"author":{"id":3577013325481265,"idStr":"3577013325481265","authorId":3577013325481265,"authorIdStr":"3577013325481265","name":"LLMMYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0673bd7a83e6b36e742df4a0eec734f4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>upupup</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>upupup</body></html>","text":"upupup","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800112666","repostId":2154956709,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154956709","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627286069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154956709?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-26 15:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CITIC: Liquidity in the A-share market is tightening, and these industries have layout opportunities","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154956709","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场流动性趋紧，整体大幅修正风险很低，结构再平衡提前开启。","content":"This article comes from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>researchSUMMARYMarket liquidity has begun to tighten, and it is expected that the extreme differentiation of sectors will end ahead of schedule. However, the risk of a substantial correction of the overall market is very low. The stable and positive macro fundamentals support the rebalancing of the structure. The growth sector has rotated from a high track to a low track. Some consumption and The pharmaceutical industry has the value of the left layout.First of all, the inflow of incremental funds in the market has slowed down recently, and the positions of active investors in the market have rapidly approached the high point at the beginning of the year. Stock funds have adjusted positions in a panic, and the effect of subsequent adjustments tends to weaken. Consumption sector.Secondly, liquidity at the macro level is still loose, and the market impact of the collapse of the group is weaker than that in the first quarter. Macroeconomic driving forces and bright spots still exist in the second half of the year. Fundamentals support the rebalancing of the market structure, and the negative expectations of traditional core assets have been fully reflected. There is room for valuation repair in the process of rebalancing.At the allocation level, \"high cut low\" will become the main feature in the process of structural rebalancing, and some consumer and pharmaceutical industries with rebounding prosperity currently have left-side allocation value.Market liquidity begins to tightenIt is expected that the extreme differentiation of the sector will end early1) The inflow of incremental funds has slowed down, and the positions of active investors have rapidly approached the high point at the beginning of the year.According to the semi-annual report data of Public Offering of Fund, the net subscription and redemption rate of active equity funds was-0.7%/-4.6% in 1Q21/2Q21, respectively. According to the sample data of our channel survey, the net redemption pressure continued to increase in the first three weeks of July, and the proportion of the cumulative net redemption scale to the net stock value of the sample funds at the beginning of the month has expanded to about 6.6%.ETF products experienced net redemptions for four consecutive months, with the net redemption rate reaching 2.0% in the first three weeks of July. In terms of the positions of private equity institutions, the overall survey positions of small and medium-sized private equity with the highest activity did not observe significant changes throughout the second quarter, but they have increased rapidly and significantly in the past two weeks, close to the historical high at the beginning of the year, showing the correction process of growth track stocks. The characteristics of taking the opportunity to enter the market or increase positions.We believe that every correction in the growth manufacturing sector before, there may be a large amount of funds taking the opportunity to enter the market, but the funds on the market that can undertake high-level adjustments have been rapidly consumed.2) Existing funds adjust positions in a panic, and the effect of subsequent position adjustments tends to weaken.Previously, the continuous position adjustment of existing funds is also the driving force for the continued and rapid rise of the manufacturing sector with high prosperity and growth. However, last week, the characteristics of panic position adjustment were obvious, and the stock funds have begun to sell industries and individual stocks with the same high prosperity in consumer, pharmaceutical and other sectors.High-prosperity industries that institutional investors may have firmly held in times of headwinds, such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, medical beauty and sub-high-end liquor, the cumulative average declines on Thursday and Friday reached-11.3%,-7.6% and-4.9% respectively, far exceeding the CSI 300.The cumulative net outflow of southbound funds reached 17.3 billion yuan last week, close to the peak of the year in March this year, and the reduction of holdings of clothing leaders with very high prosperity, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">ANTA Sports</a>Last week, the net outflow was HK $550 million, a cumulative decrease of 9.0%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>From last Wednesday to Friday, the cumulative net outflow was HK $290 million, a decrease of 9.6%.From the transaction level, the strongest sector has also made up for the decline, which means that the capital diversion effect of the growth manufacturing sector is coming to an end.3) For the first time in 14 months, long-term allocation foreign capital continued to flow out of the new energy sector and flow into the consumer sector.Long-term allocation foreign capital has only continued to increase its holdings in the power equipment and new energy sectors since 2020. At the end of 2019, the market value of foreign capital holdings in this sector was less than 30 billion, accounting for only 2.7% of the total positions of northbound funds, but it has reached 11.7% at present. It is the second largest heavyweight industry after food and beverage.Even in the process of the market surging and then pulling back in the first quarter of this year, allocation-oriented foreign capital continued to reduce its holdings of food and beverage (with a net outflow of 10.7 billion in January alone), but it still had a net inflow into the new electricity sector, with a net inflow of 32.6 billion in the entire first quarter.However, in the first three weeks of July, the net outflow of allocation-oriented foreign capital from the new electricity sector was about-1.4 billion. Before that, it had been a net inflow for 14 consecutive months, and it turned to additional allocations of food and beverage (2.9 billion), home appliances (1.4 billion) and medicine (3 billion) and other industries. Although the behavior of allocation-oriented foreign capital is not enough to affect the overall style of the market, it at least shows that some long-term funds in the market with relatively high tolerance for valuation levels have begun to adjust their allocation direction on the left.The risk of a sharp overall market correction is very lowStable and positive macro fundamentals support structural rebalancing1) Liquidity at the macro level is still loose, and the market impact of the collapse of the group is weaker than that in the first quarter.Internal and external macroeconomic disturbance factors continue to increase.Domestically, the rapid rise in raw material prices in the early stage has brought pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, local scattered epidemics have occurred frequently, and various factors such as heavy rains and floods in some provinces in central China have exacerbated market concerns about the economic prospects in the third quarter.From an overseas perspective, the spread of the Delta variant of the new coronavirus is accelerating, and the fiscal stimulus and subsidy measures under the epidemic in the United States will be withdrawn one after another from July, triggering market concerns about the global economic outlook. As inflation data continues to exceed expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yields once fell below 1.2% this month. The above macro environment is in sharp contrast to the environment of \"strong economy + strong inflation + weak liquidity\" in the first quarter of this year.In addition, the long-term prosperity trend and growth space of growth manufacturing sectors such as new energy and semiconductors are far greater than those of traditional core assets. Even if the phased group collapses, the impact on the market is expected to be much weaker than that in the first quarter.2) Economic driving forces and bright spots still exist in the second half of the year, and fundamentals support the rebalancing of the market structure.Despite the temporary disturbance, consumption and industrial investment are extremely resilient in the second half of the year.In the consumption field, the growth rate of residents' disposable income, especially the wage growth rate of low-and middle-income groups such as migrant workers, continues to rise. The gradual implementation of consumer finance supervision promotes the continued recovery of non-housing consumer credit. The trend of continued recovery of terminal consumption remains unchanged, while listed companies Suppressive factors such as high base level and channel destocking are expected to be significantly alleviated in 4Q21.In the field of real estate investment, under the current credit environment and financing structure of developers, speeding up the completion of construction and forming cash withdrawal from sales as soon as possible are still the most important ways for developers to deleverage. It is expected that the growth rate of new construction and construction and installation investment will not continue to decline in the second half of the year.In the field of infrastructure, as the subsequent issuance of local special bonds accelerates, infrastructure investment will continue to maintain steady growth, and it is expected to return to a growth rate of about 3% throughout the year.In the manufacturing sector, the continued large-scale capital expenditure of new energy and semiconductors, as well as the accelerated delivery of production in the automotive industry after supply chain problems have eased, will all bring about a continued recovery in manufacturing investment growth.3) The negative expectations of traditional core assets have been fully reflected, and there is room for valuation repair during the rebalancing process.First of all, at the level of economic expectations, the comprehensive RRR cut policy in the early stage, the recent resurgence of local scattered epidemics, and the impact of superimposed floods have fully responded to the pessimistic expectations of the economy in the second half of the year, but in fact, the economic driving force and resilience in the second half of the year still exist.Secondly, the credit risk events and related reports of some real estate developers and financial enterprises have made the market fully expect some local credit risks that may occur in the second half of the year, but the actual policy tone is still to handle them safely.Finally, from the perspective of funds, investors have begun to sell their firmest positions in the consumer sector, which also means that the market's pessimism about traditional core assets has reached the extreme.From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation level of public non-financial heavyweight stocks has been significantly adjusted in the past two quarters. The static valuation of the top 50 non-financial heavyweight stocks has dropped from 73.9 times at the end of the first quarter to 42.0 times at the end of the second quarter, returning to the level between 4Q19-1Q20, and room for valuation repair has gradually emerged.Growth sectors rotate from high track to low trackSome consumer and pharmaceutical industries have left-side layout value1) In the process of structural rebalancing, \"high cutting and low cutting\" will become the main feature.Under the constraints of market funds, we believe that the extreme differentiation of sectors will end ahead of schedule, and the growth and manufacturing sectors will quickly overdraw the semi-annual report season ahead of schedule.However, it will take time to repair the structural problems of the overall economy, and the short-term lack of rotating relay sectors has prolonged the transition period of the market from a quiet period to a resonant upward period. At this stage, the structural rebalancing of the market is the main feature.In terms of configuration, it is recommended to shift from the high-level track in the growth manufacturing sector to the relatively low-level track, such as the military industry; And you can consider gradually deploying the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors on the left side with very sufficient valuation adjustments.2) Some consumer and pharmaceutical industries that have recovered currently have left-side allocation value.In the consumer field, subdivided industries with high prosperity and improved supply-side structure can fully support the current demand for high-growth varieties.Specifically, it is recommended to pay attention to the general trend of benefiting from inventory clearing, industry structure optimization and the rise of national tideclothing, benefiting from the continued high growth in high-end consumer demand and the clearing of small and medium-sized brandsJewelry accessories, benefiting from the continued high growth of mid-to-high-end productsBeer, benefiting from demand replenishment, consumption upgrades and accelerated nationalization of sub-high-end liquor, the industry continues to explode and growMedical aesthetics, substantial adjustments due to transaction-level factorsService robot, and domestic products whose model structure drives profound changes on the supply side after the core shortage problem is alleviatedautomobile。In the field of medicine, we recommend continuing to pay attention toCXO, Vaccines, Pharmaceutical Equipment, DevicesAndMedical ServicesOpportunities in the field. In the post-epidemic era, the rigid demand attribute of the pharmaceutical sector has been very clear. Combined with the early valuation switch of high-growth and high-valuation companies in the second half of the year, there have been very cost-effective layout opportunities.Risk FactorsThe global epidemic has repeated and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; The progress of domestic economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad has tightened more than expected.","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC: Liquidity in the A-share market is tightening, and these industries have layout opportunities</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC: Liquidity in the A-share market is tightening, and these industries have layout opportunities\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n金十数据2021-07-26 15:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis article comes from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>researchSUMMARYMarket liquidity has begun to tighten, and it is expected that the extreme differentiation of sectors will end ahead of schedule. However, the risk of a substantial correction of the overall market is very low. The stable and positive macro fundamentals support the rebalancing of the structure. The growth sector has rotated from a high track to a low track. Some consumption and The pharmaceutical industry has the value of the left layout.First of all, the inflow of incremental funds in the market has slowed down recently, and the positions of active investors in the market have rapidly approached the high point at the beginning of the year. Stock funds have adjusted positions in a panic, and the effect of subsequent adjustments tends to weaken. Consumption sector.Secondly, liquidity at the macro level is still loose, and the market impact of the collapse of the group is weaker than that in the first quarter. Macroeconomic driving forces and bright spots still exist in the second half of the year. Fundamentals support the rebalancing of the market structure, and the negative expectations of traditional core assets have been fully reflected. There is room for valuation repair in the process of rebalancing.At the allocation level, \"high cut low\" will become the main feature in the process of structural rebalancing, and some consumer and pharmaceutical industries with rebounding prosperity currently have left-side allocation value.Market liquidity begins to tightenIt is expected that the extreme differentiation of the sector will end early1) The inflow of incremental funds has slowed down, and the positions of active investors have rapidly approached the high point at the beginning of the year.According to the semi-annual report data of Public Offering of Fund, the net subscription and redemption rate of active equity funds was-0.7%/-4.6% in 1Q21/2Q21, respectively. According to the sample data of our channel survey, the net redemption pressure continued to increase in the first three weeks of July, and the proportion of the cumulative net redemption scale to the net stock value of the sample funds at the beginning of the month has expanded to about 6.6%.ETF products experienced net redemptions for four consecutive months, with the net redemption rate reaching 2.0% in the first three weeks of July. In terms of the positions of private equity institutions, the overall survey positions of small and medium-sized private equity with the highest activity did not observe significant changes throughout the second quarter, but they have increased rapidly and significantly in the past two weeks, close to the historical high at the beginning of the year, showing the correction process of growth track stocks. The characteristics of taking the opportunity to enter the market or increase positions.We believe that every correction in the growth manufacturing sector before, there may be a large amount of funds taking the opportunity to enter the market, but the funds on the market that can undertake high-level adjustments have been rapidly consumed.2) Existing funds adjust positions in a panic, and the effect of subsequent position adjustments tends to weaken.Previously, the continuous position adjustment of existing funds is also the driving force for the continued and rapid rise of the manufacturing sector with high prosperity and growth. However, last week, the characteristics of panic position adjustment were obvious, and the stock funds have begun to sell industries and individual stocks with the same high prosperity in consumer, pharmaceutical and other sectors.High-prosperity industries that institutional investors may have firmly held in times of headwinds, such as sweeping the floor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, medical beauty and sub-high-end liquor, the cumulative average declines on Thursday and Friday reached-11.3%,-7.6% and-4.9% respectively, far exceeding the CSI 300.The cumulative net outflow of southbound funds reached 17.3 billion yuan last week, close to the peak of the year in March this year, and the reduction of holdings of clothing leaders with very high prosperity, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">ANTA Sports</a>Last week, the net outflow was HK $550 million, a cumulative decrease of 9.0%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>From last Wednesday to Friday, the cumulative net outflow was HK $290 million, a decrease of 9.6%.From the transaction level, the strongest sector has also made up for the decline, which means that the capital diversion effect of the growth manufacturing sector is coming to an end.3) For the first time in 14 months, long-term allocation foreign capital continued to flow out of the new energy sector and flow into the consumer sector.Long-term allocation foreign capital has only continued to increase its holdings in the power equipment and new energy sectors since 2020. At the end of 2019, the market value of foreign capital holdings in this sector was less than 30 billion, accounting for only 2.7% of the total positions of northbound funds, but it has reached 11.7% at present. It is the second largest heavyweight industry after food and beverage.Even in the process of the market surging and then pulling back in the first quarter of this year, allocation-oriented foreign capital continued to reduce its holdings of food and beverage (with a net outflow of 10.7 billion in January alone), but it still had a net inflow into the new electricity sector, with a net inflow of 32.6 billion in the entire first quarter.However, in the first three weeks of July, the net outflow of allocation-oriented foreign capital from the new electricity sector was about-1.4 billion. Before that, it had been a net inflow for 14 consecutive months, and it turned to additional allocations of food and beverage (2.9 billion), home appliances (1.4 billion) and medicine (3 billion) and other industries. Although the behavior of allocation-oriented foreign capital is not enough to affect the overall style of the market, it at least shows that some long-term funds in the market with relatively high tolerance for valuation levels have begun to adjust their allocation direction on the left.The risk of a sharp overall market correction is very lowStable and positive macro fundamentals support structural rebalancing1) Liquidity at the macro level is still loose, and the market impact of the collapse of the group is weaker than that in the first quarter.Internal and external macroeconomic disturbance factors continue to increase.Domestically, the rapid rise in raw material prices in the early stage has brought pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, local scattered epidemics have occurred frequently, and various factors such as heavy rains and floods in some provinces in central China have exacerbated market concerns about the economic prospects in the third quarter.From an overseas perspective, the spread of the Delta variant of the new coronavirus is accelerating, and the fiscal stimulus and subsidy measures under the epidemic in the United States will be withdrawn one after another from July, triggering market concerns about the global economic outlook. As inflation data continues to exceed expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yields once fell below 1.2% this month. The above macro environment is in sharp contrast to the environment of \"strong economy + strong inflation + weak liquidity\" in the first quarter of this year.In addition, the long-term prosperity trend and growth space of growth manufacturing sectors such as new energy and semiconductors are far greater than those of traditional core assets. Even if the phased group collapses, the impact on the market is expected to be much weaker than that in the first quarter.2) Economic driving forces and bright spots still exist in the second half of the year, and fundamentals support the rebalancing of the market structure.Despite the temporary disturbance, consumption and industrial investment are extremely resilient in the second half of the year.In the consumption field, the growth rate of residents' disposable income, especially the wage growth rate of low-and middle-income groups such as migrant workers, continues to rise. The gradual implementation of consumer finance supervision promotes the continued recovery of non-housing consumer credit. The trend of continued recovery of terminal consumption remains unchanged, while listed companies Suppressive factors such as high base level and channel destocking are expected to be significantly alleviated in 4Q21.In the field of real estate investment, under the current credit environment and financing structure of developers, speeding up the completion of construction and forming cash withdrawal from sales as soon as possible are still the most important ways for developers to deleverage. It is expected that the growth rate of new construction and construction and installation investment will not continue to decline in the second half of the year.In the field of infrastructure, as the subsequent issuance of local special bonds accelerates, infrastructure investment will continue to maintain steady growth, and it is expected to return to a growth rate of about 3% throughout the year.In the manufacturing sector, the continued large-scale capital expenditure of new energy and semiconductors, as well as the accelerated delivery of production in the automotive industry after supply chain problems have eased, will all bring about a continued recovery in manufacturing investment growth.3) The negative expectations of traditional core assets have been fully reflected, and there is room for valuation repair during the rebalancing process.First of all, at the level of economic expectations, the comprehensive RRR cut policy in the early stage, the recent resurgence of local scattered epidemics, and the impact of superimposed floods have fully responded to the pessimistic expectations of the economy in the second half of the year, but in fact, the economic driving force and resilience in the second half of the year still exist.Secondly, the credit risk events and related reports of some real estate developers and financial enterprises have made the market fully expect some local credit risks that may occur in the second half of the year, but the actual policy tone is still to handle them safely.Finally, from the perspective of funds, investors have begun to sell their firmest positions in the consumer sector, which also means that the market's pessimism about traditional core assets has reached the extreme.From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation level of public non-financial heavyweight stocks has been significantly adjusted in the past two quarters. The static valuation of the top 50 non-financial heavyweight stocks has dropped from 73.9 times at the end of the first quarter to 42.0 times at the end of the second quarter, returning to the level between 4Q19-1Q20, and room for valuation repair has gradually emerged.Growth sectors rotate from high track to low trackSome consumer and pharmaceutical industries have left-side layout value1) In the process of structural rebalancing, \"high cutting and low cutting\" will become the main feature.Under the constraints of market funds, we believe that the extreme differentiation of sectors will end ahead of schedule, and the growth and manufacturing sectors will quickly overdraw the semi-annual report season ahead of schedule.However, it will take time to repair the structural problems of the overall economy, and the short-term lack of rotating relay sectors has prolonged the transition period of the market from a quiet period to a resonant upward period. At this stage, the structural rebalancing of the market is the main feature.In terms of configuration, it is recommended to shift from the high-level track in the growth manufacturing sector to the relatively low-level track, such as the military industry; And you can consider gradually deploying the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors on the left side with very sufficient valuation adjustments.2) Some consumer and pharmaceutical industries that have recovered currently have left-side allocation value.In the consumer field, subdivided industries with high prosperity and improved supply-side structure can fully support the current demand for high-growth varieties.Specifically, it is recommended to pay attention to the general trend of benefiting from inventory clearing, industry structure optimization and the rise of national tideclothing, benefiting from the continued high growth in high-end consumer demand and the clearing of small and medium-sized brandsJewelry accessories, benefiting from the continued high growth of mid-to-high-end productsBeer, benefiting from demand replenishment, consumption upgrades and accelerated nationalization of sub-high-end liquor, the industry continues to explode and growMedical aesthetics, substantial adjustments due to transaction-level factorsService robot, and domestic products whose model structure drives profound changes on the supply side after the core shortage problem is alleviatedautomobile。In the field of medicine, we recommend continuing to pay attention toCXO, Vaccines, Pharmaceutical Equipment, DevicesAndMedical ServicesOpportunities in the field. In the post-epidemic era, the rigid demand attribute of the pharmaceutical sector has been very clear. Combined with the early valuation switch of high-growth and high-valuation companies in the second half of the year, there have been very cost-effective layout opportunities.Risk FactorsThe global epidemic has repeated and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; The progress of domestic economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad has tightened more than expected.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=78391&type=news\">金十数据</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d63c717f200491b518556e2de79a967","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=78391&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154956709","content_text":"本文来源于中信证券研究\n摘要\n市场流动性开始趋紧，预计板块极致分化提前终结，但市场整体大幅修正风险很低，稳中向好的宏观基本面支撑结构再平衡，成长板块从高位赛道轮动到低位，部分消费和医药行业具备左侧布局价值。\n首先，近期市场增量资金流入趋缓，场内活跃投资者仓位快速接近年初高点，存量资金恐慌性调仓，后续调仓效应趋于减弱，配置型外资年内首次持续流出新能源板块，流入消费板块。\n其次，宏观层面流动性仍然宽松，抱团瓦解的市场冲击弱于一季度，下半年宏观经济驱动力和亮点犹存，基本面支撑市场结构再平衡，传统核心资产负面预期已充分反映，再平衡过程中有估值修复空间。\n配置层面，结构再平衡过程中“高切低”将成为主要特征，部分景气回升的消费和医药行业当前就具备左侧配置价值。\n市场流动性开始趋紧\n预计板块极致分化提前终结\n1）增量资金流入趋缓，活跃投资者仓位快速接近年初高点。根据公募基金半年报数据，主动权益类基金净申赎率在1Q21/2Q21分别为-0.7%/-4.6%，而根据我们渠道调研的样本数据，7月前三周净赎回压力继续加大，累计净赎回规模占月初样本基金的存量净值的比例已经扩大到6.6%左右。\nETF产品则出现连续四个月净赎回，7月前三周净赎回率达到2.0%。私募机构仓位方面，活跃度最高的中小型私募整体调查仓位在整个二季度没有观察到明显变动，但在过去两周却快速大幅提升，接近年初的历史高点，呈现出成长赛道股回调过程中借机入场或者加仓的特征。\n我们认为此前成长制造板块的每一次回调可能都存在大量资金借机入场，但当下能够承接高位调整的场内资金已经迅速被消耗。\n2）存量资金恐慌性调仓，后续调仓效应趋于减弱。此前存量资金的持续调仓也是推动高景气成长制造板块持续快速上涨的动力。但上周恐慌性调仓特征明显，存量资金已经开始抛售消费、医药等板块同样高景气的行业和个股。\n原本机构投资者可能在逆风时也会坚定持有的高景气行业，如扫地机器人、医美和次高端白酒，在周四、周五两个交易日累计平均跌幅分别达到-11.3%、-7.6%和-4.9%，远超沪深300。\n南向资金上周累计净流出规模达到173亿元，接近今年3月份的年内峰值，并减持景气度非常高的服装龙头，例如安踏体育在上周净流出5.5亿港元，累计下跌9.0%，李宁上周三至周五累计净流出2.9亿港元，跌幅达到9.6%。\n从交易层面看，最强势板块也出现补跌，意味着成长制造板块的资金分流效应已经接近尾声。\n3）长线配置型外资14个月以来首次持续流出新能源板块，流入消费板块。长线配置型外资自2020年才开始持续增持电力设备和新能源板块，2019年末时该板块外资持股市值不足300亿，仅占北上资金总持仓的2.7%，但在当前已经达到11.7%，是仅次于食品饮料的第二大重仓行业。\n即便在今年一季度市场冲高再回调的过程中，配置型外资持续减持食品饮料（仅1月就净流出107亿），但依旧净流入电新板块，整个一季度净流入326亿。\n但7月前三周，配置型外资净流出电新板块约-14亿，而此之前已连续净流入14个月，并转而增配食品饮料（+29亿）、家电（+14亿）和医药（+30亿）等行业。配置型外资的行为虽然不足以影响市场整体风格，但至少说明市场中部分对估值水平容忍度相对较高的长线资金已经开始左侧调整配置方向。\n市场整体大幅修正风险很低\n稳中向好的宏观基本面支撑结构再平衡\n1）宏观层面流动性仍然宽松，抱团瓦解的市场冲击弱于一季度。内外部宏观经济扰动因素持续增多。\n国内来看，前期原材料价格快速上涨带来中小企业经营压力，局部散点疫情多发，华中部分省份暴雨洪灾等多方因素加剧了市场对三季度经济前景的担忧。\n海外来看，新冠病毒Delta变种加速扩散，美国疫情下的财政刺激和补助措施从7月开始将陆续退出，引发市场对全球经济前景的担忧，在通胀数据不断超预期情况下10年期美债利率本月一度跌破1.2%。上述宏观环境与今年一季度的“强经济+强通胀+弱流动性”的环境形成鲜明对比。\n此外，新能源、半导体等成长制造板块长期景气趋势和成长空间远大于传统核心资产，即便阶段性抱团瓦解，对于市场的影响预计也远弱于一季度。\n2）下半年经济驱动力和亮点犹存，基本面支撑市场结构再平衡。尽管存在暂时性扰动，但下半年消费和工业投资都有极强的韧性。\n消费领域，居民可支配收入增速，尤其是农民工等中低收入群体工资增速持续回升，消费金融监管逐步落地推动非住房消费信贷持续恢复，终端消费持续回暖的趋势不变，而上市公司层面高基数、渠道去库等压制因素预计在4Q21得到明显缓解。\n地产投资领域，在当前的信用环境和开发商融资结构下，加速施工竣工，尽快形成销售回笼现金，依旧是开发商去杠杆的最主要方式，预计新开工和建安投资增速下半年不会持续下滑。\n基建领域，随着后续地方专项债的发行加快，基建投资将继续保持稳定增长，预计全年能够恢复到3%左右的增速。\n制造业领域，新能源和半导体的持续大规模资本开支，以及汽车行业在供应链问题缓解后加速成产交付，都将带来制造业投资增速持续回升。\n3）传统核心资产的负面预期已充分反映，再平衡过程中有估值修复空间。\n首先，经济预期层面，前期全面降准政策、近期局部散点疫情再次出现，叠加洪灾影响，市场对下半年经济偏悲观的预期已经充分反应，但实际上下半年经济驱动力和韧性犹存。\n其次，部分地产开发商以及金融企业的信用风险事件和相关报道已经让市场对下半年可能出现的一些局部信用风险有充分预期，但实际政策层面的基调依然是稳妥处置。\n最后，从资金层面来看，投资者已经开始抛售消费板块当中最坚定的持仓，也意味着市场对于传统核心资产的悲观情绪已经达到极致。\n从估值层面来看，公募非金融重仓股的整体估值水平在过去两个季度已较为显著地调整，前50大非金融重仓股的静态估值已经从一季度末的73.9倍下滑至二季度末的42.0倍，恢复至4Q19-1Q20之间的水平，估值修复的空间已经逐步显现。\n成长板块从高位赛道轮动到低位\n部分消费和医药行业具备左侧布局价值\n1）结构再平衡过程中“高切低”将成为主要特征。在市场资金层面的约束下，我们认为板块极致分化将提前终结，成长制造板块抱团提前快速透支了半年报季的行情。\n然而，整体经济结构性问题的修复需要时间，短期缺乏轮动接力板块，延长了市场从平静期向共振上行期转换阶段的时间。在这个阶段，市场的结构再平衡就是主要特征。\n在配置上，建议从成长制造板块里高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，如军工；并可以考虑逐步左侧布局当下估值调整非常充分的消费和医药板块。\n2）部分景气回升的消费和医药行业当前就具备左侧配置价值。消费领域，高景气和供应端结构改善的细分行业完全可以支撑当下资金对高增长品种的需求。\n具体而言，建议关注受益库存出清、行业格局优化和国潮崛起大趋势的服装，受益高端消费需求持续高增以及中小品牌出清的珠宝饰品，受益中高端产品持续高增长的啤酒，受益需求回补、消费升级和全国化加速的次高端白酒，行业持续爆发式高增长的医美，因交易层面因素大幅调整的服务机器人，以及缺芯问题缓解后车型结构推动供给端深刻变化的国产汽车。\n医药领域，我们建议继续建议关注CXO、疫苗、制药设备、器械和医疗服务领域的机会。疫情后时代医药板块的刚需属性已经非常明确，结合下半年高成长性高估值公司的提前估值切换，已经出现极具性价比的布局机会。\n风险因素\n全球疫情反复、疫苗接种不及预期；国内经济复苏进度不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1277,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}