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Weeweess
2021-07-31

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How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment

随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。 8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报

How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":806740774,"tweetId":"806740774","gmtCreate":1627696304398,"gmtModify":1703494813680,"author":{"id":3583541700741630,"idStr":"3583541700741630","authorId":3583541700741630,"authorIdStr":"3583541700741630","name":"Weeweess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242477c20840a38ec5dad0ad105d50be","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Yes&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Yes&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Yes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806740774","repostId":1120441766,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.Corporate Earnings SeasonInvestors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.Fed Policy Support and Economic DataThe \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.US stock volatility attracts attentionAugust may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the global market go in August? 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These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nWind万得 \n2021-07-31 01:23\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.Corporate Earnings SeasonInvestors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.Fed Policy Support and Economic DataThe \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.US stock volatility attracts attentionAugust may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1510,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}