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2021-09-03

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Can Tesla stock hit the $1,000 mark as the rally resumes?

惯于看营收估值倍数的投资者转用EBIT估值倍数来评估股价或更可取。

Can Tesla stock hit the $1,000 mark as the rally resumes?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":815693859,"tweetId":"815693859","gmtCreate":1630672875671,"gmtModify":1676530372260,"author":{"id":3454045658283227,"idStr":"3454045658283227","authorId":3454045658283227,"authorIdStr":"3454045658283227","name":"喵个猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cc8cd361e47c57dd7bca3d95d08da","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Tesla</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Tesla</body></html>","text":"Tesla","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815693859","repostId":1179887160,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179887160","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630663068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179887160?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 17:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Can Tesla stock hit the $1,000 mark as the rally resumes?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179887160","media":"美港电讯","summary":"惯于看营收估值倍数的投资者转用EBIT估值倍数来评估股价或更可取。","content":"sum up<ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares have outperformed over the past three months after poor start to year, strong recovery<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>。</li><li>Tesla EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) growth is expected to be strong in the future, and investors should use the EBIT valuation multiple to evaluate the share price.</li><li>Analysts list factors for whether Tesla shares can break the $1,000 mark.</li></ul>Investment PerspectiveTesla is one of the best on Wall Street, with 33 analysts expressing their views on Tesla's stock price. It can be said that this individual stock is highly controversial: the price targets of Wall Street's elite analysts vary widely, ranging from $540 to $860, with 14 analysts giving a strong bullish/bullish rating, 12 giving a neutral rating, and 7 giving a strong bearish/bearish rating.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1b92a468da788ee5ba6817b2264a8e\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Again, the famous Tesla bull, Ark Investment CEO and CIO Wood Sister Cathie Wood, recently reiterated her optimism about Tesla, and even emphasized that she did not see any Tesla share price bubble forming; On the other hand, Wall Street's divided opinion on Tesla's stock price (as can be seen from the neutral rating in the chart above) reflects the uncertain sentiment in the market, which Woodsister believes is conducive to Tesla crossing the \"wall of worry\" (referring to the cyclical trend of financial markets overcoming a series of negative factors and continuing to rise), and the stock price will climb to $3,000 by 2025.Can Tesla stock break through the $1,000 mark? This article lists several key points.Tesla Stock Price's Recent PerformanceThe chart below shows the three-month share price performance of Tesla, Ford Motor, and General Motors (as of September 2, 2021)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174e2f5700526705625d8c913c3ebb91\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The chart below shows the three-month share price performance of Tesla, VLUE, and VUG (as of September 2, 2021)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909b5d89d048b104d44faba3d75b93cd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There's no doubt that Tesla has significantly underperformed this year, returning just 4.83% as of September 2, 2021. However, it has improved over the past three months, returning 18.6%, significantly outperforming the returns of Ford Motor (F.N) -11% and General Motors (GM.N) -17.1%. The growth-to-value rotation has alarmingly faded, and growth stocks are once again an investment focus for low-priced buyers. Compare the Vanguard Growth Stock Index ETF (VUG) vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>This is evident in the performance of the iShuo MSCI Dollar Value Factor ETF (VLUE).As growth stocks and Tesla share price rallies resume, it's time for investors to ponder whether Tesla can break through the all-time high of $900 reached after the stock split and rush to the $1,000 mark.Focus on Tesla EBIT GrowthThe chart below shows Tesla's revenue from the sale of carbon credits in the quarter:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54dabfbe36afc53a1b13a8610b0ef34b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the second quarter, the data slapped Tesla's detractors' consistent rhetoric: Tesla made a profit by selling \"carbon\". The most recent quarterly report shows that Tesla's quarterly revenue increased by 308.3% year-on-year to $1.36 billion, a bright performance. In addition, although Tesla's revenue from the sale of carbon credits amounted to at least $354 million in the past five quarters, Tesla's underlying operating performance is making tremendous progress as the company continues to expand.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0555474643f33f10d16dd192a3ae4d\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's EBIT situation has steadily improved as the company's operations scale has expanded, recording $3.25 billion in Q2 and a cumulative EBIT increase of 7.8% in the first 12 months.Therefore, investors need to consider how Tesla's EBIT will grow in the future, so as to understand how to correctly evaluate Tesla and see whether Tesla can rush to the $1,000 mark.What is the future growth rate of Tesla's EBIT?The chart below shows Wall Street's average consensus expectation for Tesla's revenue:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2410d4ebc4c8fec1679d1e692220d4\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The chart below shows Wall Street's CAGR forecast for Tesla:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fccdb237c8db92f64db2c6b4056e8ee2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As can be seen from the chart, even analysts on Wall Street who hold a neutral rating on Tesla expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to improve. Wall Street forecasts that Tesla will record revenue of $120.4 billion in fiscal 2025 (Ark Investment's forecast is $700 billion, and Wall Street's forecast value is 17.2%), implying a staggering CAGR of 24.4%.In comparison, GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen had a CAGR of 5.15%, 3.14%, and 4.33%, respectively, on their revenues through fiscal 2025. Wall Street naturally expects Tesla to continue strengthening its leadership position in the EV market as traditional automakers scramble to prepare for a big shift to the market in the coming years.While Tesla's revenue compound annual growth rate is expected to be quite eye-catching, more importantly, Tesla's EBIT and EBITDA growth are expected to exceed its revenue growth rate, reaching 43.8% and 26.7% respectively.Because Tesla's future EBIT or EBITDA growth is considerable, Seekingalpha analysts suggest that for investors who are used to looking at revenue valuation multiples (enterprise value/revenue ratio or price-to-sales ratio), it may be preferable to switch to EBITDA or EBIT valuation multiples to evaluate Tesla's share price.Seekingalpha analysts will introduce how to look at these two indicators later, and give a valuation model.Understanding Tesla EBIT Valuation MultiplesOnly EBIT valuation multiples are selected for discussion here. Considering that Tesla, as an automaker, has relatively high capex margins, it makes a lot of sense to discuss EBIT valuation multiples.The following chart shows a mixed comparison of Tesla's valuation multiples with those of automotive and software companies:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a99239187db8b139242af901f5ce78\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The following chart shows Tesla's valuation multiples compared to software companies:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c265c0afe9f76ecdbcb516f5d86f0ed1\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's briefly introduce the logic of these two groups. The first group lists some automakers. Comparing Pure Electric Vehicle Manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The forward valuation multiple of, the valuation multiple of Tesla Enterprise Value/FY2024 EBIT is 64.7x, which is reasonable, and Tesla EBIT is expected to grow faster and profit margins are higher than those of its peers in the group.In the second group, Tesla's EBIT valuation multiplier for the 2024 calendar year is equally reasonable compared with the top emerging software companies. As a software company, Tesla is not inferior to its peers due to its bright EBIT growth rate.Seekingalpha analysts believe Tesla could work with Palantir or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>And other emerging software companies, although Tesla's EBIT margin is lower than that of its peers.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e4d5f21a7e8d14313126bb32dc7d10\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In calculating Tesla's fair value,AnalystThe median EBIT valuation multiple of 60 times was selected, resulting in a fair value of approximately $713. Based on Thursday's closing price of $739, Tesla's potential decline is 3.6%.Analysts believe that huge EBIT growth is key to underpinning Tesla's valuation premium, which remains reasonable compared to its BEV peers or software peers.So, if it is reasonable to measure Tesla's current valuation in terms of expectations through fiscal 2024, what factors will Tesla stock rely on to hit the $1,000 mark in the next few years?Market momentum and strong growthThe chart below shows Seekingalpha's quantitative rating of Tesla:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/299e00f39ef79cfb53d1523d91587bff\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As can be seen from the figure, in addition to valuation factors, Tesla has achieved bright results in other ratings, especially its growth and profitability, which have won the highest A + rating. On the other hand, Tesla's value rating only gets an F, mainly because the quantitative system compares Tesla to automakers, and the relatively low valuations of traditional automakers affect Tesla's rating.The chart below shows Seekingalpha's stock price momentum rating of Tesla:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03806f1116aa76d645162084e6f64066\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Notably, Tesla's 3-month share price performance rating is A, indicating a massive rally as bulls expect the stock price to rise to its all-time high in January of this year. Unfortunately, some investors failed to take into account the current momentum and took a bearish stance at the inflection point of the turnaround from a fall to a rise.While analysts see valuation as an important factor driving the stock price (and valuation is very subjective for Tesla, as seen from Wall Street's accommodative price target range), investor optimism about the growth outlook cannot be ignored, as it drives the momentum. In Tesla's case, the bulls not only see a huge opportunity in the EV market, but also consider Tesla's efforts in autonomous driving,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>prospects for taxis, insurance, energy, and more, which greatly spawned bullish optimism, causing the stock price to climb further.The key risk to be aware of, though, as the bearish investors have said, is that Tesla seems far from achieving its desired goals. If the goal is not achieved, the valuation premium will be difficult to sustain.On the other hand, as mentioned above, Tesla's current valuation does not appear to be out of touch with its other BEV peers, and bulls can certainly consider the valuation reasonable. More challenging for investors is to consider how Tesla can hit the $1,000 mark. Analysts believe that at this time, neither bulls nor bears can provide a compelling fundamental basis after understanding the market opportunities for Tesla.Tesla Stock Price Dynamics and Trend AnalysisThe following picture shows Tesla's weekly K-line chart:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700f88c4fd796d7d26b1f0c21cf529ae\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As highlighted earlier, Tesla stock has been returning well since the market bottomed out during the pandemic, despite the constant negative news and singing down in the market. This is not about the huge returns 2020 provided to investors, but the long-term strength clearly reflected in the performance of Tesla's stock price.The double bottom of February 2021 (first low) and May 2021 (second low) created a lot of negative sentiment for the stock market at the time.Bear market traps are used by strong and savvy market participants to lure and trap bearish investors when appropriate, profit from negative sentiment, and turn stock prices around when the bears believe the weak sentiment persists, thereby going long. Readers can review the coverage of Tesla during February and May to understand the bearish sentiment in the market at that time. The May double bottom is a bullish signal for Tesla, and unfortunately, many investors with poor technical analysis often fail to spot important market signals in time.So, can Tesla hit the $1,000 mark?From the current stock price, the safety factor is good. Because of the previous profits all the way, analysts said they could continue to hold. After all, Ark Investment has set a target price of $3,000 for Tesla's fiscal year 2025. Analysts believe that no one can predict whether Tesla can rush the $1,000, or even the $2,000 mark, or when that will happen.Nevertheless, after analyzing Tesla's current valuation, rally, price performance and long-term uptrend, analysts believe these points may lead Tesla to the $1,000 mark, rather than falling back to $500.Finally, analysts are maintaining their Neutral rating on Tesla for the time being based on current valuation and share price performance.","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla stock hit the $1,000 mark as the rally resumes?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla stock hit the $1,000 mark as the rally resumes?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n美港电讯2021-09-03 17:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nsum up<ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares have outperformed over the past three months after poor start to year, strong recovery<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>。</li><li>Tesla EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) growth is expected to be strong in the future, and investors should use the EBIT valuation multiple to evaluate the share price.</li><li>Analysts list factors for whether Tesla shares can break the $1,000 mark.</li></ul>Investment PerspectiveTesla is one of the best on Wall Street, with 33 analysts expressing their views on Tesla's stock price. It can be said that this individual stock is highly controversial: the price targets of Wall Street's elite analysts vary widely, ranging from $540 to $860, with 14 analysts giving a strong bullish/bullish rating, 12 giving a neutral rating, and 7 giving a strong bearish/bearish rating.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1b92a468da788ee5ba6817b2264a8e\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Again, the famous Tesla bull, Ark Investment CEO and CIO Wood Sister Cathie Wood, recently reiterated her optimism about Tesla, and even emphasized that she did not see any Tesla share price bubble forming; On the other hand, Wall Street's divided opinion on Tesla's stock price (as can be seen from the neutral rating in the chart above) reflects the uncertain sentiment in the market, which Woodsister believes is conducive to Tesla crossing the \"wall of worry\" (referring to the cyclical trend of financial markets overcoming a series of negative factors and continuing to rise), and the stock price will climb to $3,000 by 2025.Can Tesla stock break through the $1,000 mark? This article lists several key points.Tesla Stock Price's Recent PerformanceThe chart below shows the three-month share price performance of Tesla, Ford Motor, and General Motors (as of September 2, 2021)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174e2f5700526705625d8c913c3ebb91\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The chart below shows the three-month share price performance of Tesla, VLUE, and VUG (as of September 2, 2021)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909b5d89d048b104d44faba3d75b93cd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There's no doubt that Tesla has significantly underperformed this year, returning just 4.83% as of September 2, 2021. However, it has improved over the past three months, returning 18.6%, significantly outperforming the returns of Ford Motor (F.N) -11% and General Motors (GM.N) -17.1%. The growth-to-value rotation has alarmingly faded, and growth stocks are once again an investment focus for low-priced buyers. Compare the Vanguard Growth Stock Index ETF (VUG) vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>This is evident in the performance of the iShuo MSCI Dollar Value Factor ETF (VLUE).As growth stocks and Tesla share price rallies resume, it's time for investors to ponder whether Tesla can break through the all-time high of $900 reached after the stock split and rush to the $1,000 mark.Focus on Tesla EBIT GrowthThe chart below shows Tesla's revenue from the sale of carbon credits in the quarter:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54dabfbe36afc53a1b13a8610b0ef34b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the second quarter, the data slapped Tesla's detractors' consistent rhetoric: Tesla made a profit by selling \"carbon\". The most recent quarterly report shows that Tesla's quarterly revenue increased by 308.3% year-on-year to $1.36 billion, a bright performance. In addition, although Tesla's revenue from the sale of carbon credits amounted to at least $354 million in the past five quarters, Tesla's underlying operating performance is making tremendous progress as the company continues to expand.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0555474643f33f10d16dd192a3ae4d\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's EBIT situation has steadily improved as the company's operations scale has expanded, recording $3.25 billion in Q2 and a cumulative EBIT increase of 7.8% in the first 12 months.Therefore, investors need to consider how Tesla's EBIT will grow in the future, so as to understand how to correctly evaluate Tesla and see whether Tesla can rush to the $1,000 mark.What is the future growth rate of Tesla's EBIT?The chart below shows Wall Street's average consensus expectation for Tesla's revenue:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2410d4ebc4c8fec1679d1e692220d4\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The chart below shows Wall Street's CAGR forecast for Tesla:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fccdb237c8db92f64db2c6b4056e8ee2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As can be seen from the chart, even analysts on Wall Street who hold a neutral rating on Tesla expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to improve. Wall Street forecasts that Tesla will record revenue of $120.4 billion in fiscal 2025 (Ark Investment's forecast is $700 billion, and Wall Street's forecast value is 17.2%), implying a staggering CAGR of 24.4%.In comparison, GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen had a CAGR of 5.15%, 3.14%, and 4.33%, respectively, on their revenues through fiscal 2025. Wall Street naturally expects Tesla to continue strengthening its leadership position in the EV market as traditional automakers scramble to prepare for a big shift to the market in the coming years.While Tesla's revenue compound annual growth rate is expected to be quite eye-catching, more importantly, Tesla's EBIT and EBITDA growth are expected to exceed its revenue growth rate, reaching 43.8% and 26.7% respectively.Because Tesla's future EBIT or EBITDA growth is considerable, Seekingalpha analysts suggest that for investors who are used to looking at revenue valuation multiples (enterprise value/revenue ratio or price-to-sales ratio), it may be preferable to switch to EBITDA or EBIT valuation multiples to evaluate Tesla's share price.Seekingalpha analysts will introduce how to look at these two indicators later, and give a valuation model.Understanding Tesla EBIT Valuation MultiplesOnly EBIT valuation multiples are selected for discussion here. Considering that Tesla, as an automaker, has relatively high capex margins, it makes a lot of sense to discuss EBIT valuation multiples.The following chart shows a mixed comparison of Tesla's valuation multiples with those of automotive and software companies:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a99239187db8b139242af901f5ce78\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The following chart shows Tesla's valuation multiples compared to software companies:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c265c0afe9f76ecdbcb516f5d86f0ed1\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's briefly introduce the logic of these two groups. The first group lists some automakers. Comparing Pure Electric Vehicle Manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The forward valuation multiple of, the valuation multiple of Tesla Enterprise Value/FY2024 EBIT is 64.7x, which is reasonable, and Tesla EBIT is expected to grow faster and profit margins are higher than those of its peers in the group.In the second group, Tesla's EBIT valuation multiplier for the 2024 calendar year is equally reasonable compared with the top emerging software companies. As a software company, Tesla is not inferior to its peers due to its bright EBIT growth rate.Seekingalpha analysts believe Tesla could work with Palantir or<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>And other emerging software companies, although Tesla's EBIT margin is lower than that of its peers.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e4d5f21a7e8d14313126bb32dc7d10\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In calculating Tesla's fair value,AnalystThe median EBIT valuation multiple of 60 times was selected, resulting in a fair value of approximately $713. Based on Thursday's closing price of $739, Tesla's potential decline is 3.6%.Analysts believe that huge EBIT growth is key to underpinning Tesla's valuation premium, which remains reasonable compared to its BEV peers or software peers.So, if it is reasonable to measure Tesla's current valuation in terms of expectations through fiscal 2024, what factors will Tesla stock rely on to hit the $1,000 mark in the next few years?Market momentum and strong growthThe chart below shows Seekingalpha's quantitative rating of Tesla:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/299e00f39ef79cfb53d1523d91587bff\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As can be seen from the figure, in addition to valuation factors, Tesla has achieved bright results in other ratings, especially its growth and profitability, which have won the highest A + rating. On the other hand, Tesla's value rating only gets an F, mainly because the quantitative system compares Tesla to automakers, and the relatively low valuations of traditional automakers affect Tesla's rating.The chart below shows Seekingalpha's stock price momentum rating of Tesla:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03806f1116aa76d645162084e6f64066\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Notably, Tesla's 3-month share price performance rating is A, indicating a massive rally as bulls expect the stock price to rise to its all-time high in January of this year. Unfortunately, some investors failed to take into account the current momentum and took a bearish stance at the inflection point of the turnaround from a fall to a rise.While analysts see valuation as an important factor driving the stock price (and valuation is very subjective for Tesla, as seen from Wall Street's accommodative price target range), investor optimism about the growth outlook cannot be ignored, as it drives the momentum. In Tesla's case, the bulls not only see a huge opportunity in the EV market, but also consider Tesla's efforts in autonomous driving,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>prospects for taxis, insurance, energy, and more, which greatly spawned bullish optimism, causing the stock price to climb further.The key risk to be aware of, though, as the bearish investors have said, is that Tesla seems far from achieving its desired goals. If the goal is not achieved, the valuation premium will be difficult to sustain.On the other hand, as mentioned above, Tesla's current valuation does not appear to be out of touch with its other BEV peers, and bulls can certainly consider the valuation reasonable. More challenging for investors is to consider how Tesla can hit the $1,000 mark. Analysts believe that at this time, neither bulls nor bears can provide a compelling fundamental basis after understanding the market opportunities for Tesla.Tesla Stock Price Dynamics and Trend AnalysisThe following picture shows Tesla's weekly K-line chart:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700f88c4fd796d7d26b1f0c21cf529ae\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As highlighted earlier, Tesla stock has been returning well since the market bottomed out during the pandemic, despite the constant negative news and singing down in the market. This is not about the huge returns 2020 provided to investors, but the long-term strength clearly reflected in the performance of Tesla's stock price.The double bottom of February 2021 (first low) and May 2021 (second low) created a lot of negative sentiment for the stock market at the time.Bear market traps are used by strong and savvy market participants to lure and trap bearish investors when appropriate, profit from negative sentiment, and turn stock prices around when the bears believe the weak sentiment persists, thereby going long. Readers can review the coverage of Tesla during February and May to understand the bearish sentiment in the market at that time. The May double bottom is a bullish signal for Tesla, and unfortunately, many investors with poor technical analysis often fail to spot important market signals in time.So, can Tesla hit the $1,000 mark?From the current stock price, the safety factor is good. Because of the previous profits all the way, analysts said they could continue to hold. After all, Ark Investment has set a target price of $3,000 for Tesla's fiscal year 2025. Analysts believe that no one can predict whether Tesla can rush the $1,000, or even the $2,000 mark, or when that will happen.Nevertheless, after analyzing Tesla's current valuation, rally, price performance and long-term uptrend, analysts believe these points may lead Tesla to the $1,000 mark, rather than falling back to $500.Finally, analysts are maintaining their Neutral rating on Tesla for the time being based on current valuation and share price performance.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907\">美港电讯</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003907","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179887160","content_text":"总结\n\n特斯拉股价年初走势不佳，后强劲复苏，过去三个月表现跑赢通用汽车和福特汽车。\n预计未来特斯拉EBIT（息税前利润）增长强劲，投资者应使用EBIT估值倍数评估股价。\n分析师列出了特斯拉股价能否闯入1000美元大关的因素。\n\n投资观点\n特斯拉在华尔街的关注度数一数二，33位分析师发表了针对特斯拉股价的观点。可以说，这只个股极具争议：华尔街精英分析师的目标价差异悬殊，从540美元到860美元不等，14位分析师予以强烈看涨/看涨评级，12位予以中性评级，7位予以强烈看跌/看跌的评级。\n\n再提一嘴，有名的特斯拉多头，方舟投资CEO及CIO木头姐Cathie Wood，最近重申看好特斯拉，甚至强调没有看到任何特斯拉股价泡沫形成；另一方面，华尔街对特斯拉股价意见不一（从上图的中性评级可以看出）反映了市场的不确定情绪，木头姐认为这有利于特斯拉越过“忧虑之墙”（指金融市场克服一系列负面因素并持续上升的周期性趋势），到2025年股价将攀升至3000美元。\n究竟特斯拉股价能否闯进1000美元大关？本文列出几大要点。\n特斯拉股价近日表现\n下图为特斯拉、福特汽车、通用汽车三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）\n\n下图为特斯拉、VLUE、VUG三个月股价表现对比（截至2021年9月2日）\n\n毫无疑问，今年特斯拉明显跑输大盘，截至2021年9月2日的回报率仅为4.83%。然而过去三个月表现好转，回报率达18.6%，大大跑赢福特汽车(F.N)-11%和通用汽车(GM.N)-17.1%的回报率。成长股到价值股的轮换势头已惊人消退，成长股再次成为低价买入者的投资重点。对比过去三个月Vanguard成长股指数ETF(VUG)与iShares安硕MSCI美元价值因素ETF(VLUE)的表现，这一点可见一斑。\n随着成长股和特斯拉股价涨势恢复，投资者是时候思考，特斯拉能否突破拆股后达到的900美元历史高位，冲入1000美元大关。\n关注特斯拉EBIT增长\n下图为特斯拉季度出售碳排放信用额度的营收：\n\n二季度数据打脸特斯拉诋毁者的一贯说辞：特斯拉靠卖“碳”盈利。最近的季报显示，特斯拉季度营收同比增长308.3%至13.6亿美元，业绩亮眼。此外，尽管过去5个季度，特斯拉出售碳排放信用额度的营收最少达3.54亿美元，但随着公司规模不断扩大，特斯拉的基础经营业绩正取得巨大进步。\n\n随着公司运营规模扩大，特斯拉EBIT状况稳步改善，Q2录得32.5亿美元，前12个月EBIT累计增长7.8%。\n因此，投资者需考虑特斯拉EBIT未来将如何增长，从而了解如何正确评估特斯拉，看特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关。\n特斯拉EBIT未来增速如何？\n下图为华尔街对特斯拉营收的平均共识预期：\n下图为华尔街对特斯拉复合年增长率的预测：\n\n从图中可以看出，即使是华尔街对特斯拉持中性评级的分析师，也预计特斯拉经营业绩继续提升。华尔街预测，特斯拉2025财年将录得营收1204亿美元（方舟投资预测为7000亿美元，华尔街预测值为其17.2%），这意味着年复合增长率达到惊人的24.4%。\n与之相比，通用汽车、丰田和大众到2025财年的营收年复合增长率分别为5.15%、3.14%和4.33%。华尔街自然期待，随着传统汽车制造商争相准备在未来几年大举转向电动汽车市场，特斯拉能继续加强在该市场的领导地位。\n虽然预计特斯拉营收年复合增长率相当亮眼，但更重要的是，特斯拉EBIT和EBITDA增速有望超出其营收增速，分别达到43.8%和26.7%。\n由于特斯拉未来EBIT或EBITDA增长可观，Seekingalpha分析师建议，对于习惯看营收估值倍数（企业价值/营收比率或市销率）的投资者，转用EBITDA或EBIT估值倍数来评估特斯拉股价，或许更加可取。\nSeekingalpha分析师将在后文介绍如何看这两个指标，并给出了估值模型。\n理解特斯拉EBIT估值倍数\n此处仅选取EBIT估值倍数进行讨论。考虑到特斯拉作为汽车厂商，资本支出利润率相对较高，讨论EBIT估值倍数意义较大。\n下图为特斯拉与汽车、软件公司的估值倍数混合对比：\n\n下图为特斯拉与软件公司的估值倍数对比：\n\n先简单介绍一下这两个组别的逻辑。第一组列举了部分汽车厂商。对比纯电动汽车厂商蔚来和比亚迪的远期估值倍数，特斯拉企业价值/2024财年EBIT的估值倍数为64.7倍，还算合理，并且特斯拉EBIT增速预计更快，利润率也比组内同行高。\n在第二组别中，对比头部新兴软件公司，特斯拉2024日历年的EBIT估值乘数同样显得合理。由于EBIT增长率亮眼，作为软件公司的特斯拉不输同行。Seekingalpha分析师认为，特斯拉可与Palantir或Zoom等头部新兴软件公司齐名，尽管特斯拉EBIT利润率低于其同行。\n\n在计算特斯拉的公允价值时，分析师选定EBIT估值倍数中位值60倍，得出的公允价值约为713美元。基于周四739美元的收盘价，特斯拉潜在跌幅为3.6%。\n分析师认为，巨大的EBIT增长是支撑特斯拉估值溢价的关键，且与纯电动车同行或软件同行相比，特斯拉估值溢价仍然合理。\n那么，如果以截至2024财年的预期来衡量特斯拉目前的估值是合理的话，那么在未来几年内，特斯拉股价靠什么因素冲入1000美元大关？\n市场势头与增长强劲\n下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的量化评级：\n\n由图可见，除了估值因素，特斯拉在其他各项评级中成绩亮眼，尤其是其增长和盈利能力，均获最高的A+评级。另一方面，特斯拉价值评级仅获F，主要是因为量化系统将特斯拉与汽车厂商进行比较，传统汽车制造商相对较低的估值影响了特斯拉的评级。\n下图为Seekingalpha对特斯拉的股价势头评级：\n\n值得注意的是，特斯拉的3个月股价表现评级为A，表明涨势大增，因为多头期待股价升至今年1月的历史最高位。可惜的是，一些投资者没有考虑到当前势头，在转跌为涨的拐点采取了看跌立场。\n虽然分析师认为估值是驱动股价的重要因素（而估值对特斯拉而言非常主观，从华尔街宽松的目标价区间可见），但投资者对增长前景的乐观态度不容忽视，因为这推动了增长势头。就特斯拉而言，多头不仅看到了电动车市场的巨大机会，还考虑了特斯拉在自动驾驶、机器人出租车、保险、能源等方面的前景，这大大催生了看涨乐观情绪，导致股价进一步爬升。\n不过，正如看跌投资者所说的，需注意的关键风险是特斯拉离实现预期目标似乎还很遥远。如果目标实现不了，估值溢价将难以持续。\n另一方面，如上文所说，特斯拉目前估值似乎与其他纯电动车同行并不脱节，看涨者当然可以认为估值合理。对投资者而言，更具挑战性的是考虑特斯拉如何冲入1000美元大关。分析师认为，目前无论是看涨者还是看跌者，在了解特斯拉的市场机会后，仍然无法提供令人信服的基本面依据。\n特斯拉股价动态和趋势分析\n下图为特斯拉的周K线图：\n\n前文强调，尽管市场上负面新闻和唱跌声音不断，但自疫情期间市场触底以来，特斯拉股票回报一直不错。这里不是说2020年为投资者提供的巨大回报，而是特斯拉股价表现中清楚反映出的长期强劲势头。\n2021年2月（第一个低点）和2021年5月（第二个低点）的双重底给当时的股市造成了很大的负面情绪。\n熊市陷阱为强大而精明的市场参与者所用，在适当的时候引诱和套牢看跌的投资者，从负面情绪中获利，并在看跌者认为疲软情绪延续时扭转股价，从而做多。读者可回顾一下2月和5月期间对特斯拉的报道，了解当时市场看跌情绪。5月双重底走势是特斯拉的看涨信号，不幸的是，许多技术分析不善的投资者往往不能及时发现市场重要信号。\n那么，特斯拉能否冲入1000美元大关？\n从目前股价来看，安全系数很好。由于此前一路获利，分析师表示可以继续持有，毕竟方舟投资将特斯拉2025财年目标价设为3000美元。分析师认为，没有人能预测特斯拉能否冲入1000美元、甚至2000美元大关，也不能预测这何时发生。\n尽管如此，在分析了特斯拉目前估值、涨势、价位表现和长期上升趋势后，分析师认为这些要点或将特斯拉引向1000美元大关，而不是回落到500美元。\n最后，基于目前估值和股价表现，分析师暂时维持对特斯拉的中性评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TSLA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}