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嗨逛全球
2021-08-22

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See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash

一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全

See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash

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Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161742158","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全","content":"<p>The annual Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks will be held online from August 26 to 28, the second consecutive year it has been held online. The theme of this meeting is \"Macroeconomic Policy in an Unbalanced Economy\", and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at that time.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a benchmark for the next stage of policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, and this year's meeting is as important as ever. The market generally expects Powell to disclose more details of Taper's roadmap at this meeting.</p><p>However, the recurrence of the epidemic has added variables. Some analysts believe that Powell is more likely to announce the relevant content of Taper at the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><h2><b>Fed Taper Gets Closer</b></h2>The Federal Reserve is facing a critical node of when to start excessively easing monetary policy to support the economy during the pullback/retracement epidemic. According to past experience, Powell may throw a \"blockbuster\" at this meeting.</p><p>At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in June, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, significantly raising its economic and inflation expectations for this year, suggesting that there will be two rate hike in 2023, but did not mention tapering QE. The minutes of the FOMC meeting released in July also showed that the Federal Reserve had indeed begun to discuss the Taper matter, but could not reach a consensus.</p><p>Some Fed officials said that if the pace of U.S. economic recovery can be consistent with the Fed's expectations, it is appropriate to start tapering QE this year. However, some Fed officials believe that it is more appropriate to start tapering QE early next year.</p><p>The latest strong July economic data puts the Fed on the right track to start Taper. As U.S. inflation continues to explode and employment improves significantly, the Fed Taper, which affects the nerves of the market, may come faster and more violently than expected.</p><p>Investors have been looking for a clear timing to reduce QE. Powell previously said after the July FOMC meeting:</p><p>The Fed will adjust policy when inflation expectations are out of range, slowly guiding the market towards Taper. Powell said that the Fed's \"powerful policy tools\" have many limitations. In comparison, fiscal or government policies are more powerful, and monetary policy cannot bring targeted benefits. This seems to be paving the way for pullback/retracement's excessively easing monetary policy.</p><p><h2><b>Wall Street expects no big Fed move</b></h2>For the Federal Reserve, it is easy to \"open the tap\", but it needs to be cautious when \"tightening\", communicate in advance, and proceed step by step to avoid market turmoil.</p><p>In addition, the raging epidemic has made the Jackson Hole annual meeting low-key: the guest list has been greatly reduced, local open facilities have been restricted, attendees must wear masks, and they and their families need to be vaccinated. Later, the Federal Reserve simply changed the meeting to online.</p><p>Some investors believe that there will be no major policy announcements at this meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Analyst Mark Cabana agrees with this view and says:</p><p>We don't think this is the time for Powell to really want to have a big fight. We don't think he will disclose the specific Taper roadmap before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, believes that the Delta mutant virus has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode, which is not enough to press the on button of the official Taper. It is necessary to observe whether the economy and employment can develop at the current speed.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said Powell should provide the Fed's Taper roadmap, but warned that the Fed has the ability to take a step back if the COVID-19 pandemic becomes worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Senior analyst Joe Perry believes that Powell is likely to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in September to announce the reduction of QE, which will give the Fed more time to observe the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August and pay attention to the Delta variant virus. Is the number of confirmed cases caused by the virus declining? He said:</p><p>The Federal Reserve is mainly focusing on two points at this stage: one is the non-farm payrolls data in August, and the other is the impact of the Delta mutant virus on economic recovery.<h2>What impact will the Fed Taper have on the market?</h2>Although the market expects the Fed to reduce its bond purchases soon, the probability of a rate hike in the next year is low. Prices for futures contracts tied to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate show a roughly 50% chance of a November 2022 rate hike and a 69% chance of a December rate hike.</p><p>In addition, the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook is quite high. The Delta mutant virus has caused a rebound in the epidemic in the United States, which may damage the economy and employment trends, and the continued high inflation in the United States will also affect the specific details of the Federal Reserve's announcement of Taper.</p><p>So, will the Fed Taper still trigger a \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" in the market this time?</p><p>Wall Street analysts generally expect that the Federal Reserve has gradually established an effective communication mechanism with the market after years of experience. Every Fed meeting will release some views on future policies and the economy to the market. The market already has enough psychological expectations for the Fed Taper.</p><p>Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, pointed out that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy this time may be different.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced Taper, U.S. stocks may face a correction in a short period of time, but the Fed's tightening of monetary policy alone is not enough to constitute a driving factor for a sharp adjustment in U.S. stocks, so investors need not panic. In addition, interest rates are also likely to remain close to zero until 2023. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said:</p><p>At present, the focus of the market is still on the recovery of the U.S. economy and the impact of the Delta variant virus. If the U.S. economy maintains a steady recovery and the employment situation continues to improve, then U.S. stocks may continue to rise. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also encouraged investors to remain optimistic:</p><p>Not only do I think the S&P 500 could move slightly higher, but I also think the S&P 500 could reach 4,700 before the end of the year.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>See you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSee you next week at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting! Markets don't expect Powell to stir up much splash\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-22 20:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The annual Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks will be held online from August 26 to 28, the second consecutive year it has been held online. The theme of this meeting is \"Macroeconomic Policy in an Unbalanced Economy\", and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at that time.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a benchmark for the next stage of policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, and this year's meeting is as important as ever. The market generally expects Powell to disclose more details of Taper's roadmap at this meeting.</p><p>However, the recurrence of the epidemic has added variables. Some analysts believe that Powell is more likely to announce the relevant content of Taper at the September interest rate meeting.</p><p><h2><b>Fed Taper Gets Closer</b></h2>The Federal Reserve is facing a critical node of when to start excessively easing monetary policy to support the economy during the pullback/retracement epidemic. According to past experience, Powell may throw a \"blockbuster\" at this meeting.</p><p>At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in June, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal that surprised the market, significantly raising its economic and inflation expectations for this year, suggesting that there will be two rate hike in 2023, but did not mention tapering QE. The minutes of the FOMC meeting released in July also showed that the Federal Reserve had indeed begun to discuss the Taper matter, but could not reach a consensus.</p><p>Some Fed officials said that if the pace of U.S. economic recovery can be consistent with the Fed's expectations, it is appropriate to start tapering QE this year. However, some Fed officials believe that it is more appropriate to start tapering QE early next year.</p><p>The latest strong July economic data puts the Fed on the right track to start Taper. As U.S. inflation continues to explode and employment improves significantly, the Fed Taper, which affects the nerves of the market, may come faster and more violently than expected.</p><p>Investors have been looking for a clear timing to reduce QE. Powell previously said after the July FOMC meeting:</p><p>The Fed will adjust policy when inflation expectations are out of range, slowly guiding the market towards Taper. Powell said that the Fed's \"powerful policy tools\" have many limitations. In comparison, fiscal or government policies are more powerful, and monetary policy cannot bring targeted benefits. This seems to be paving the way for pullback/retracement's excessively easing monetary policy.</p><p><h2><b>Wall Street expects no big Fed move</b></h2>For the Federal Reserve, it is easy to \"open the tap\", but it needs to be cautious when \"tightening\", communicate in advance, and proceed step by step to avoid market turmoil.</p><p>In addition, the raging epidemic has made the Jackson Hole annual meeting low-key: the guest list has been greatly reduced, local open facilities have been restricted, attendees must wear masks, and they and their families need to be vaccinated. Later, the Federal Reserve simply changed the meeting to online.</p><p>Some investors believe that there will be no major policy announcements at this meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Analyst Mark Cabana agrees with this view and says:</p><p>We don't think this is the time for Powell to really want to have a big fight. We don't think he will disclose the specific Taper roadmap before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September. JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, believes that the Delta mutant virus has put the Fed in a wait-and-see mode, which is not enough to press the on button of the official Taper. It is necessary to observe whether the economy and employment can develop at the current speed.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said Powell should provide the Fed's Taper roadmap, but warned that the Fed has the ability to take a step back if the COVID-19 pandemic becomes worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Jiasheng Group</a>Senior analyst Joe Perry believes that Powell is likely to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in September to announce the reduction of QE, which will give the Fed more time to observe the U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August and pay attention to the Delta variant virus. Is the number of confirmed cases caused by the virus declining? He said:</p><p>The Federal Reserve is mainly focusing on two points at this stage: one is the non-farm payrolls data in August, and the other is the impact of the Delta mutant virus on economic recovery.<h2>What impact will the Fed Taper have on the market?</h2>Although the market expects the Fed to reduce its bond purchases soon, the probability of a rate hike in the next year is low. Prices for futures contracts tied to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate show a roughly 50% chance of a November 2022 rate hike and a 69% chance of a December rate hike.</p><p>In addition, the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook is quite high. The Delta mutant virus has caused a rebound in the epidemic in the United States, which may damage the economy and employment trends, and the continued high inflation in the United States will also affect the specific details of the Federal Reserve's announcement of Taper.</p><p>So, will the Fed Taper still trigger a \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" in the market this time?</p><p>Wall Street analysts generally expect that the Federal Reserve has gradually established an effective communication mechanism with the market after years of experience. Every Fed meeting will release some views on future policies and the economy to the market. The market already has enough psychological expectations for the Fed Taper.</p><p>Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, pointed out that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy this time may be different.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve announced Taper, U.S. stocks may face a correction in a short period of time, but the Fed's tightening of monetary policy alone is not enough to constitute a driving factor for a sharp adjustment in U.S. stocks, so investors need not panic. In addition, interest rates are also likely to remain close to zero until 2023. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said:</p><p>At present, the focus of the market is still on the recovery of the U.S. economy and the impact of the Delta variant virus. If the U.S. economy maintains a steady recovery and the employment situation continues to improve, then U.S. stocks may continue to rise. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, also encouraged investors to remain optimistic:</p><p>Not only do I think the S&P 500 could move slightly higher, but I also think the S&P 500 could reach 4,700 before the end of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92849ddf94d54bf9e6af60671fe1ef1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161742158","content_text":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标，今年的会议也一如既往地重要。市场普遍预期，鲍威尔会在本次会议上披露Taper路线图的更多细节。\n不过，疫情的反复增添了变数，有分析师认为，鲍威尔更可能在9月议息会议上宣布Taper的相关内容。\n美联储Taper越来越近\n美联储正面临何时开始回撤疫情期间超量宽松货币政策支持经济的关键节点。按以往经验看，鲍威尔可能会在本次会议上扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n在6月的FOMC货币政策会议上，美联储释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，暗示2023年会有两次加息，但没有提到缩减QE。7月公布的FOMC会议纪要又显示，美联储确实已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识。\n部分美联储官员表示，如果美国经济的复苏步伐能与美联储预期一致，那么今年开始缩减QE是合适的。但也有一部分美联储官员认为，明年初开始缩减QE才比较合适。\n而最新公布的强劲的7月经济数据使美联储处于即将开启Taper的正轨之上。随着美国通胀持续爆表，就业大幅改善，牵动市场神经的美联储Taper可能来得比预期更快、更猛烈。\n投资者一直在寻求明确的缩减QE的时间，鲍威尔此前在7月FOMC会议后曾表示：\n\n 美联储将在通胀预期超出范围时调整政策，慢慢引导市场走向Taper。\n\n鲍威尔表示，美联储“强有力的政策工具”存在诸多局限性，相比之下，财政或政府政策更加有力，货币政策无法带来定向的好处。这似乎是在为回撤超量宽松货币政策作铺垫。\n华尔街预期美联储不会有大动作\n对于美联储来说，“打开放水龙头”容易，“拧紧”时却需要谨慎，提前沟通，循序渐进，避免引发市场动荡。\n此外，疫情的肆虐使得杰克逊霍尔年会变得低调：来宾名单大幅缩减、当地开放设施受限制、与会者必须戴口罩，以及他们和家人都需要接种疫苗等。后来，美联储干脆将这次会议改为线上举行。\n部分投资者认为，本次会议不会有重大的政策公布。美国银行分析师Mark Cabana同意这类观点并称：\n\n 我们不认为现在是鲍威尔真正想有大干一场的时候。我们觉得，他不会在9月的美联储利率会议之前透露具体的Taper路线图。\n\nTD Ameritrade首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan认为，Delta变异病毒令美联储处于观望模式，还不足以按下正式Taper的开启键，需要观察经济和就业能否以当前速度发展。\nGrant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，鲍威尔应提供美联储Taper路线图，但同时警告称，如果新冠疫情变得比预期更严重，美联储有能力后退一步。\n嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry认为，鲍威尔很有可能等到9月的美联储议息会议才宣布缩减QE，这将给美联储更多的时间，观察8月的美国非农就业数据究竟如何，并关注Delta变异病毒造成的确诊病例是否在下降。他称：\n\n 美联储现阶段主要关注两点：一是8月非农就业数据，二是Delta变异病毒对经济复苏的影响程度。\n\n美联储Taper对市场影响几何？\n尽管市场预计美联储缩减购债规模在即，但是在未来一年内加息的概率较低。与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约价格显示，2022年11月加息的可能性约为50%，12月加息的可能性为69%。\n此外，美国经济前景不确定性相当高。Delta变异病毒令美国疫情出现反弹，可能会损害经济和就业趋势，且美国通胀持续高企，也会影响美联储公布Taper的具体细节。\n那么，这次美联储Taper还会引发市场“缩表恐慌”吗？\n华尔街分析师普遍预计，美联储经过多年经验积累，已经与市场逐步建立了有效的沟通机制。每次美联储会议都会对市场释放一些对未来政策和经济的看法。市场对美联储Taper已经有了足够的心理预期。\nSwissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya指出，美联储此次收紧货币政策可能有所不同。\n\n 美联储宣布Taper后，美股短时间内可能会面临回调，但是单纯的美联储收紧货币政策不足以构成美股大幅调整的驱动因素，投资者不必恐慌。此外，利率也可能会在2023年前保持接近零的水平。\n\nIndependent Advisor Alliance首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示：\n\n 目前市场关注的焦点仍是美国经济复苏情况和Delta变异病毒的影响。如果美国经济保持稳步恢复，就业情况持续改善，那么美股或将继续上行。\n\nOppenheimer Asset Management首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus也鼓励投资者保持乐观：\n\n 我不仅认为标普500指数可能会小幅走高，还认为年底前标普500指数可能会达到4700点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}