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Jun Yee
2021-08-23

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International commodities are collectively diving, can cyclical stocks still be covered?

8月的第三周，作为经济景气度风向标的大宗商品均大幅下跌。衡量一揽子大宗商品价格的路透CRB商品指数周跌幅超4%。　　从国内来看，保供稳价政策调控仍在持续进行，大宗商品价格仍有持续降温的可能性。　　受益于大宗商品牛市，今年以来，A股周期性板块站在了领涨的前排。　　随着大宗商品走势愈发不明朗，机构对下半年周期股走势存在分歧。需求方面，由于全球疫情的持续性仍不明朗，长期来看，对大宗商品的需求增长持谨慎态度。

International commodities are collectively diving, can cyclical stocks still be covered?

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As of the close of trading on August 20, local time, NYMEX crude oil fell by 9.61% on the week, and LME copper fell by more than 5.4% on the week. The Reuters CRB Commodity Index, which measures the price of a basket of commodities, fell more than 4% on the week.</p><p>In terms of news, the economic data of various countries is poor, and overseas epidemic prevention and control still shows no signs of improvement, and the market's expectations for a global economic slowdown are heating up.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that epidemic concerns suppressed economic activity and the fiscal stimulus effect gradually weakened. In July, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% month-on-month, a decline that exceeded market consensus expectations. Personal consumption expenditures account for about 70% of the total U.S. economy, and this data is closely watched by the market as an indicator of the overall economic health.</p><p>At the same time, the Federal Reserve also signaled to slow down the pace of bond purchases. The minutes of last month's policy meeting released in the early morning of August 19, Beijing time, showed that most policymakers attending the meeting believed that if the economic recovery is in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of bond purchases this year.</p><p>However, there are some differences among the decision-makers of the Federal Reserve on the direction of monetary policy. Some officials believe that the epidemic continues to ferment and may inhibit economic growth, inflation may fall back into a downward trend, and they may change their stance on monetary policy.</p><p>Gu Fengda, director of the research and consulting department of Guosen Futures, told a reporter from Shanghai Securities News that considering the lag in the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, after the July meeting, many economic data from major regions around the world showed that the progress of economic recovery was not optimistic, so the Federal Reserve may not Announced a reduction in bond purchases in September. This market adjustment should be a phased adjustment, rather than a comprehensive systemic risk.</p><p>Gu Fengda said that it is expected that the overall bull market in asset prices in the second half of the year will be unsustainable, while commodity trends will diverge. Among them, materials related to new energy in non-ferrous metals will present a strong supply and demand structure different from other varieties, especially varieties such as copper, aluminum, nico, cobalt and lithium. Their supply increment is limited, demand potential is improving, and domestic and foreign inventories are extremely low. Its growth and resource scarcity are strong.</p><p><b>From a domestic perspective, the policy regulation of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still ongoing, and commodity prices may still continue to cool down.</b></p><p>The person in charge of the Storage Department of the State Grain and Material Reserves Bureau said on August 19 that in accordance with the arrangements of the State Council executive meeting to ensure supply and price stabilization of bulk commodities, the national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc were released in two batches on July 5 and 29. A total of 270,000 tons, and all sectors of society responded well. At present, the prices of copper, aluminum and zinc are still at a high level, and some downstream small and medium-sized enterprises are still having difficulty in production and operation. In the next step, we will continue to release national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc, and continue to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities.</p><p>Benefiting from the commodity bull market, since the beginning of this year, the A-share cyclical sector has stood in the front row of leading the gains. According to Wind statistics, as of the close of trading on August 20, the cumulative increases of steel, non-ferrous metals, and mining in the past 120 trading days were 37%, 30%, and 26% respectively, ranking first, third, and fourth among 28 industries.</p><p>As the trend of commodities becomes increasingly unclear, institutions are divided on the trend of cyclical stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000783\">Changjiang Securities</a>It is believed that the biggest driving force for cyclical stocks in the third quarter comes from the tight supply and demand pattern, which is similar to 2017. This round of economy is affected by \"double carbon\" factors, and there are rigid constraints on the supply side. Inventories of most cyclical products are at low levels. In the first half of the year, the economic prosperity was relatively good, and the demand side was still exerting strength, making it difficult for commodity prices to fall quickly.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>It is believed that the current cyclical stocks have gone through the general rise in the early stage, and the fastest stage of resonant rise of commodities and stock prices has passed. In the future, we will focus on two types of structural opportunities: first, high-prosperity sectors, such as coal and chemicals; The second is the opportunities brought by industrial upgrading, such as high-end manufacturing, traditional processing enterprises driven by new energy vehicles, and energy metal opportunities brought by emerging industries.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is believed that the supply of many commodities is not a problem of production capacity bottleneck, but a problem of production capacity release. On the demand side, as the persistence of the global epidemic remains unclear, the growth of demand for commodities is cautious in the long run. It is expected that crude oil supply will fill the gap in the second half of the year, and oil prices will peak in the third quarter and fall in the fourth quarter. In terms of ferrous metals, it is expected that the steel market will maintain a weak supply and demand pattern in the second half of the year. However, non-ferrous metals are relatively resilient, and their supply still has bottlenecks, while demand growth has significantly benefited from new energy, wind power, photovoltaics and other fields.</p>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>International commodities are collectively diving, can cyclical stocks still be covered?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInternational commodities are collectively diving, can cyclical stocks still be covered?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 08:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the third week of August, commodities, which are the vane of economic prosperity, all fell sharply. As of the close of trading on August 20, local time, NYMEX crude oil fell by 9.61% on the week, and LME copper fell by more than 5.4% on the week. The Reuters CRB Commodity Index, which measures the price of a basket of commodities, fell more than 4% on the week.</p><p>In terms of news, the economic data of various countries is poor, and overseas epidemic prevention and control still shows no signs of improvement, and the market's expectations for a global economic slowdown are heating up.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that epidemic concerns suppressed economic activity and the fiscal stimulus effect gradually weakened. In July, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% month-on-month, a decline that exceeded market consensus expectations. Personal consumption expenditures account for about 70% of the total U.S. economy, and this data is closely watched by the market as an indicator of the overall economic health.</p><p>At the same time, the Federal Reserve also signaled to slow down the pace of bond purchases. The minutes of last month's policy meeting released in the early morning of August 19, Beijing time, showed that most policymakers attending the meeting believed that if the economic recovery is in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of bond purchases this year.</p><p>However, there are some differences among the decision-makers of the Federal Reserve on the direction of monetary policy. Some officials believe that the epidemic continues to ferment and may inhibit economic growth, inflation may fall back into a downward trend, and they may change their stance on monetary policy.</p><p>Gu Fengda, director of the research and consulting department of Guosen Futures, told a reporter from Shanghai Securities News that considering the lag in the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, after the July meeting, many economic data from major regions around the world showed that the progress of economic recovery was not optimistic, so the Federal Reserve may not Announced a reduction in bond purchases in September. This market adjustment should be a phased adjustment, rather than a comprehensive systemic risk.</p><p>Gu Fengda said that it is expected that the overall bull market in asset prices in the second half of the year will be unsustainable, while commodity trends will diverge. Among them, materials related to new energy in non-ferrous metals will present a strong supply and demand structure different from other varieties, especially varieties such as copper, aluminum, nico, cobalt and lithium. Their supply increment is limited, demand potential is improving, and domestic and foreign inventories are extremely low. Its growth and resource scarcity are strong.</p><p><b>From a domestic perspective, the policy regulation of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still ongoing, and commodity prices may still continue to cool down.</b></p><p>The person in charge of the Storage Department of the State Grain and Material Reserves Bureau said on August 19 that in accordance with the arrangements of the State Council executive meeting to ensure supply and price stabilization of bulk commodities, the national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc were released in two batches on July 5 and 29. A total of 270,000 tons, and all sectors of society responded well. At present, the prices of copper, aluminum and zinc are still at a high level, and some downstream small and medium-sized enterprises are still having difficulty in production and operation. In the next step, we will continue to release national reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc, and continue to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities.</p><p>Benefiting from the commodity bull market, since the beginning of this year, the A-share cyclical sector has stood in the front row of leading the gains. According to Wind statistics, as of the close of trading on August 20, the cumulative increases of steel, non-ferrous metals, and mining in the past 120 trading days were 37%, 30%, and 26% respectively, ranking first, third, and fourth among 28 industries.</p><p>As the trend of commodities becomes increasingly unclear, institutions are divided on the trend of cyclical stocks in the second half of the year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000783\">Changjiang Securities</a>It is believed that the biggest driving force for cyclical stocks in the third quarter comes from the tight supply and demand pattern, which is similar to 2017. This round of economy is affected by \"double carbon\" factors, and there are rigid constraints on the supply side. Inventories of most cyclical products are at low levels. In the first half of the year, the economic prosperity was relatively good, and the demand side was still exerting strength, making it difficult for commodity prices to fall quickly.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>It is believed that the current cyclical stocks have gone through the general rise in the early stage, and the fastest stage of resonant rise of commodities and stock prices has passed. In the future, we will focus on two types of structural opportunities: first, high-prosperity sectors, such as coal and chemicals; The second is the opportunities brought by industrial upgrading, such as high-end manufacturing, traditional processing enterprises driven by new energy vehicles, and energy metal opportunities brought by emerging industries.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>It is believed that the supply of many commodities is not a problem of production capacity bottleneck, but a problem of production capacity release. On the demand side, as the persistence of the global epidemic remains unclear, the growth of demand for commodities is cautious in the long run. It is expected that crude oil supply will fill the gap in the second half of the year, and oil prices will peak in the third quarter and fall in the fourth quarter. In terms of ferrous metals, it is expected that the steel market will maintain a weak supply and demand pattern in the second half of the year. However, non-ferrous metals are relatively resilient, and their supply still has bottlenecks, while demand growth has significantly benefited from new energy, wind power, photovoltaics and other fields.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108232058112943_0.html\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d066887061d8f7edb4bf082e7c85da3","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108232058112943_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161574009","content_text":"8月的第三周，作为经济景气度风向标的大宗商品均大幅下跌。截至当地时间8月20日收盘，NYMEX原油周跌幅达到9.61%，LME铜周跌幅超过5.4%。衡量一揽子大宗商品价格的路透CRB商品指数周跌幅超4%。\n消息面上，各国经济数据不佳，加上海外疫情防控仍未有好转迹象，市场对于全球经济放缓的预期升温。\n美国商务部8月17日公布的数据显示，疫情担忧抑制了经济活动，财政刺激效果逐渐减弱，7月美国零售销售额环比下降1.1%，降幅超过市场普遍预期。个人消费支出占美国经济总量约70%，该数据作为衡量整体经济健康状况的指标受到市场密切关注。\n与此同时，美联储还释放了放慢购债步伐的信号。北京时间8月19日凌晨发布的上月政策会议记录显示，多数与会决策者认为，若经济复苏符合预期，今年开始放慢购债步伐可能是适合的。\n但美联储决策层对于货币政策方向存在着一些分歧。部分官员认为，疫情持续发酵并可能抑制经济增长，通胀可能会重新陷入下行趋势，他们恐怕会改变对货币政策的立场。\n国信期货研究咨询部主管顾冯达对上海证券报记者表示，考虑到美联储会议纪要公布具有滞后性，在7月会议之后，全球主要地区不少经济数据显示经济复苏进展并不乐观，因而美联储未必会在9月宣布缩减购债。此次市场调整应该是阶段性调整，而非全面系统性风险。\n顾冯达表示，预计下半年资产价格全面牛市难以持续，而商品走势将分化。其中，有色金属中与新能源相关的材料将呈现不同于其他品种的强势供需结构，尤其是铜铝镍钴锂等品种，它们的供应增量有限、需求潜力向好、国内外库存极低，其成长性和资源稀缺性较强。\n从国内来看，保供稳价政策调控仍在持续进行，大宗商品价格仍有持续降温的可能性。\n国家粮食和物资储备局物储司负责人8月19日表示，按照国务院常务会议关于做好大宗商品保供稳价工作部署，7月5日、29日分两批次投放国家储备铜铝锌共计27万吨，社会各界反应良好。目前，铜铝锌等价格仍处于高位，部分下游中小企业生产经营仍较困难。下一步，还将继续投放国家储备铜铝锌，持续做好大宗商品的保供稳价工作。\n受益于大宗商品牛市，今年以来，A股周期性板块站在了领涨的前排。据万得统计，截至8月20日收盘，钢铁、有色金属、采掘近120个交易日的累计涨幅分别为37%、30%、26%，位列28个行业的板块的第一、第三、第四。\n随着大宗商品走势愈发不明朗，机构对下半年周期股走势存在分歧。\n长江证券认为，三季度周期股的最大动力来自于供需格局偏紧，同2017年相仿，本轮经济受“双碳”因素影响，供给端存在刚性约束。多数周期品库存处于低位。而上半年经济景气度较好，需求端仍有发力，商品价格难以迅速回落。\n华安证券认为，当前周期股经过前期普涨，大宗商品和股价共振上涨的最快速阶段已过，未来更聚焦两类结构性机会：一是高景气度板块，如煤炭和化工；二是产业升级带来的机会，如高端制造业、新能源车带动的传统加工企业，以及新兴产业带来能源金属机会。\n中金公司认为，许多大宗商品的供应并非产能瓶颈问题，而是产能释放的问题。需求方面，由于全球疫情的持续性仍不明朗，长期来看，对大宗商品的需求增长持谨慎态度。预计下半年原油供应将填补缺口，油价将在三季度见顶、四季度回落。黑色金属方面，预计下半年钢材市场维持供需两弱的格局。而有色金属相对抗跌，其供应仍存瓶颈，而需求增长显著受益于新能源、风电、光伏等领域。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}